Jordan Murphy's performance to date places him among a very elite group of freshmen. To understand how elite, read on.
Murphy's player efficiency rating (PER) ranks 8th nationally among freshmen who have played at least 9 games and have averaged at least 20 minutes per game. His PER tops all Big Ten freshmen who meet that criteria.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with PER, it is the most widely used measure of composite performance. Basically, it is increased by good measures, reduced by bad measures, and the overall rating is standardized. In the NBA, PER is standardized so that an average player receives a PER of 15. However, a freshman with a rating of 15 would have to be considered pretty good for a freshman. PER is not a volume measure. A player playing lots of minutes can have a low PER and a player playing limited garbage time minutes can have a high one. That's why I limited the sample to players who have played in a minimum number of games with a minimum number of minutes played per game.
Murphy's current PER is 27.2. The national freshman leader is Ben Simmons of LSU with a rating of 32; Simmons is expected to be the #1 NBA draft pick this summer. #2 in the Big Ten (11th nationally) is Indiana's Thomas Bryant with a rating of 25.7.
A fuller picture of Murphy's elite freshman peer group can be obtained with a little historical reference. The Sports Reference database includes PER ratings for seasons 2009-10 to the present. I queried freshmen who obtained a PER rating of 25 or more over at least 25 games with an average of at least 20 minutes per game from the 2009-10 season through the 2014-15 season. Here are the results:
1) Over that time span, 26 qualifying freshmen have achieved a PER of 25 or more over their completed freshmen seasons.
2) Of these 26, 4 are still playing college basketball (although one of those currently is in limbo).
3) Of the remaining 22, 17 are in the NBA. Here are those 17 with their freshmen season PER ratings:
2014-15
Karl Anthony Towns (31.4)
Jahlil Okafor (30.7)
D'Angelo Russell (26.6)
Myles Turner (25.5)
2013-14
Jabari Parker (28.4)
Joel Embiid (28.2)
2012-13
Anthony Bennett (28.3)
RJ Hunter (25.5)
2011-12
Anthony Davis (35.1)
Cody Zeller (31.3)
2010-11
Jared Sullinger (30.3)
Terrence Jones (25.5)
2009-10
DeMarcus Cousins (34.2)
Hassan Whiteside (29.1)
Alec Burks (25.8)
C.J. McCollum (25.8)
Derrick Williams (25.8)
I would have liked to search over the first 11 games of the freshman's career but the database did not allow me to do that. More likely than not, Murphy's PER will decline in conference play, but if he can maintain something pretty close to what he has now, he will rank among a very elite group of freshman performers. The eye test told us that Murphy was very good but this measure confirms that judged by his performance to date, Murphy is the best freshman performer this school has recruited in a very long time.
Murphy's player efficiency rating (PER) ranks 8th nationally among freshmen who have played at least 9 games and have averaged at least 20 minutes per game. His PER tops all Big Ten freshmen who meet that criteria.
For those of you who are unfamiliar with PER, it is the most widely used measure of composite performance. Basically, it is increased by good measures, reduced by bad measures, and the overall rating is standardized. In the NBA, PER is standardized so that an average player receives a PER of 15. However, a freshman with a rating of 15 would have to be considered pretty good for a freshman. PER is not a volume measure. A player playing lots of minutes can have a low PER and a player playing limited garbage time minutes can have a high one. That's why I limited the sample to players who have played in a minimum number of games with a minimum number of minutes played per game.
Murphy's current PER is 27.2. The national freshman leader is Ben Simmons of LSU with a rating of 32; Simmons is expected to be the #1 NBA draft pick this summer. #2 in the Big Ten (11th nationally) is Indiana's Thomas Bryant with a rating of 25.7.
A fuller picture of Murphy's elite freshman peer group can be obtained with a little historical reference. The Sports Reference database includes PER ratings for seasons 2009-10 to the present. I queried freshmen who obtained a PER rating of 25 or more over at least 25 games with an average of at least 20 minutes per game from the 2009-10 season through the 2014-15 season. Here are the results:
1) Over that time span, 26 qualifying freshmen have achieved a PER of 25 or more over their completed freshmen seasons.
2) Of these 26, 4 are still playing college basketball (although one of those currently is in limbo).
3) Of the remaining 22, 17 are in the NBA. Here are those 17 with their freshmen season PER ratings:
2014-15
Karl Anthony Towns (31.4)
Jahlil Okafor (30.7)
D'Angelo Russell (26.6)
Myles Turner (25.5)
2013-14
Jabari Parker (28.4)
Joel Embiid (28.2)
2012-13
Anthony Bennett (28.3)
RJ Hunter (25.5)
2011-12
Anthony Davis (35.1)
Cody Zeller (31.3)
2010-11
Jared Sullinger (30.3)
Terrence Jones (25.5)
2009-10
DeMarcus Cousins (34.2)
Hassan Whiteside (29.1)
Alec Burks (25.8)
C.J. McCollum (25.8)
Derrick Williams (25.8)
I would have liked to search over the first 11 games of the freshman's career but the database did not allow me to do that. More likely than not, Murphy's PER will decline in conference play, but if he can maintain something pretty close to what he has now, he will rank among a very elite group of freshman performers. The eye test told us that Murphy was very good but this measure confirms that judged by his performance to date, Murphy is the best freshman performer this school has recruited in a very long time.