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IT'S BACK!!! Road to Selection Sunday: October Means 1st Tournament Projection!!
By SelectionSunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/294977?referrer_id=388419
DINKYTOWN, Minn. -- October's arrival means the college basketball season is sneaking a peek around the corner, and that is always a good thing. With that comes the return of Road to Selection Sunday, Gopher Hole's semi-regular odds-and-ends, bits-and-pieces kind a' college basketball column. Sometimes you'll get stats, sometimes you'll get opinions, and sometimes it may just be long-winded gibberish, but one thing we do hope is that it'll always be informative.
To that end, let's kick off the 2013-14 hoops campaign with one of our staples, the preseason NCAA Tournament Field of 68 Projection. With a twinge of sadness, I can't bring myself to project the 2013-14 Minnesota Golden Gophers into the tournament field, though it's certainly not to be dismissed as a possibility when you boast an experienced and talented backcourt tandem of Hollins (Austin and Andre) x 2.
What it comes down to is this: I just can't see the Gophers' frontcourt holding up sufficiently throughout the course of an entire Big Ten season, specifically at the PF position. I'm of the belief that "Aw-crap-I'm-still-at-FIU" Rakeem Buckles wouldn't have been a world-beater, but if playing at Williams Arena and anywhere near 100%, I think he would have been a key enough cog to catapult the Gophers over the hump and back into the NCAA tourney. But that's a moot point, let's move forward.
Last year RTSS' preseason projection accurately pegged 43 of the 68 NCAA qualifiers (63.2%), an improvement of three from 2011-12. Of those 43, 16 were automatic qualifiers: Miami (ACC); Saint Louis (Atlantic 10); Louisville (Big East); Montana (Big Sky); Ohio State (Big Ten); Kansas (Big XII); Memphis (Conference USA); Iona (Metro Atlantic); Creighton (Missouri Valley); New Mexico (Mountain West); Long Island (Northeast); Bucknell (Patriot); Ole Miss (SEC); Davidson (Southern); South Dakota State (Summit); and Gonzaga (West Coast).
PRESEASON FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (10/1/13)
America East (1): Stony Brook
American (4): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Memphis
ACC (6): Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia
Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic 10 (3): La Salle, Massachusetts, VCU
Big East (5): Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette, Saint John's, Villanova
Big Sky (1): North Dakota
Big South (1): Coastal Carolina
Big Ten (7): Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (4): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State
Big West (1): Cal Poly
Colonial (1): Towson
Conference USA (1): Southern Miss
Horizon (1): Green Bay
Ivy (1): Harvard
Metro Atlantic (1): Manhattan
MAC (1): Toledo
MEAC (1): Morgan State
Missouri Valley (2): Indiana State, Wichita State
Mountain West (3): Boise State, New Mexico, San Diego State
Northeast (1): Bryant
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA
Patriot (1): Lafayette
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee
Southern (1): Elon
Southland (1): Northwestern State
SWAC (1): Texas Southern
Summit (1): North Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (2): BYU, Gonzaga
WAC (1): New Mexico State
_____________________________
Last 4 In (Dayton-Bound): Arizona State, Indiana State, Massachusetts, Purdue
First 4 Out: Denver, Illinois, Middle Tennessee State, Pitt
Others Considered (12): Alabama, Boston College, Cal, Louisiana Tech, Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Ole Miss, Richmond, Saint Louis, UNLV, Washington, Xavier
You Might Have Noticed
We have one new conference for the 2013-14 season, the American Athletic (let's just call it the American), which means there will be 32 automatic qualifiers for the 2014 NCAA Tournament and one less at-large bid. Coaches most certainly will whine about that throughout the season (expect to hear louder complaints about the need to expand the NCAA field), especially immediately after Selection Sunday, but that's for another day.
For the here and now, let's get up to speed on each of the 32 conferences. ... who's new, who's departed, and something to keep an eye on in 2013-14.
America East
New: UMass-Lowell
Gone: Boston U
Something To Note: I found this stat amazing last year, and it still applies today. Maine coach Ted Woodward has not won a conference tournament game since 2005. That's 8 consecutive years of one and done. Somehow, he's still employed.
American
New: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Rutgers, South Florida, SMU, Temple
Something To Note: For my money SMU is the most interesting story coming out of the new "AAC'. With the pending arrival of hot-shot recruit Emmanuel Mudiay in 2014, the Mustangs are gathering momentum. Can it continue on the court in what should be a competitive conference?
ACC
New: Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse
Something To Note: ACC vs. Big Ten. More so than any other season, I'll be watching those two conferences go head to head for bragging rights as the best conference in 2013-14, and I'm not necessarily referring to their annual challenge. Mostly I'm talking about how the Big 2 perform in "primo" regular-season matchups and vs. one another during March Madness. The likes of Duke, (future B1G member) Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse, et al, vs. the likes of Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, etc. Let's get it on.
Atlantic Sun
Something To Note: Let's see how Florida Gulf Coast and new head coach Joe Dooley handle being the hunted. After advancing to the Sweet 16 in highlight-reel fashion and returning most of its key players, FGCU might as well be Bullseye, Target's cute doggie mascot. The high-flying Eagles will have one resting squarely on their backs.
Atlantic 10
New: George Mason
Gone: Butler, Charlotte, Temple, Xavier
Something To Note: The league took a serious hit losing Butler, Temple, and Xavier, though in fairness all three programs appear headed for down seasons in their new conferences. Expect La Salle and especially VCU to step in and capitalize. Long haul, I'm not convinced Saint Louis' success will continue under Jim Crews.
Big East
New: Butler, Creighton, Xavier
Gone: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse
Something To Note: Though it won't be the brutally tough Big East we've come to know and love, this still will be a quality league. How will Butler, Creighton, and X -- all quality programs -- handle the upgrade in physical talent they'll now face night-in and night-out?
Big Sky
Something To Note: Is it possible the 2014 NCAA tourney will include two teams from the state of North Dakota? That's what RTSS' crystal ball says. If that were to occur, in the name of state pride would Bison fans cheer for the Fighting Sioux, and vice versa? Don't think so.
Big South
Something To Note: Other than Syracuse, Coastal Carolina is the only Gopher nonconference opponent I'm projecting to make the NCAA Tournament.
Big Ten
Something To Note: It's a broken record, but I'll say it again. The conference has not won the Big Enchilada since Michigan State cut down the nets in 2000. As strong as the B1G is right now basketball-wise, that monkey is getting bigger and bigger with each passing season. Depth is great, and is the sign of a truly strong conference, but at some point ya' gotta' take the crown.
Big XII
Something To Note: I know Scott Drew has his detractors, some of it well deserved, but I think his Baylor squad is going to rebound in a big way after last season's disappointing season ended with a NIT championship. No, don't be silly, Kansas will win and/or share its 10th consecutive Big XII title, but I fully expect Drew's Bears to be a factor in March, maybe even more so than talented Marcus Smart/Oklahoma State.
Big West
Gone: Pacific
Something To Note: Former Gopher head coach Dan Monson has done it again, putting together a monster nonconference schedule for his 49ers. The 49ers play four opponents I'm projecting into the Field of 68 (Arizona, Creighton, Michigan, Missouri), and play three others that finished in the top 100 of the RPI, NCAA qualifiers Kansas State (20) and NC State (33), as well as Washington (88). The average RPI of LBSU's nonconference opponents is 74.1, the lowest in the country. That's impressive no matter how you slice it.
Colonial
New: College of Charleston
Gone: George Mason, Georgia State, Old Dominion
Something To Note: What was once a promising mid-major league (see Final Four trips by since departed George Mason and VCU) has now morphed backwards to a likely 1-bidder. Is there a program capable of stepping into the role of CAA bell-cow? Bueller? Bueller, Anyone?
Conference USA
New: Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Old Dominion, Texas-San Antonio
Gone: Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, SMU
Something To Note: The more things change, the more things stay the same. C-USA remains a mass-of-humanity entity (16 teams), except now with the departure of Memphis it lacks a truly name program. Even with 16 teams, I'm not sure C-USA has the goods to get a 2nd team into the NCAA.
Horizon
New: Oakland
Gone: Loyola-Chicago
Something To Note: Don't be surprised if Oakland and sharp-shooter Travis Bader are immediate factors in their new home.
Ivy
Something To Note: Rookie of the Year and 1st-Team All-Ivy League selection Siyani Chambers (Hopkins) looks to get the Crimson to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament after reaching the Round of 32 last season with an upset of New Mexico.
Metro Atlantic
New: Monmouth, Quinnipiac
Gone: Loyola-Maryland
Something To Note: Iona seeks its third straight trip to the NCAA.
MAC
Something To Note: Former Michigan State player and Tom Izzo assistant Mark Montgomery enters his third season at Northern Illinois with a 10-51 overall record (6-26 in the MAC). Would think some significant improvement is required for Montgomery to stick around for a 4th season?
MEAC
Something To Note: Todd Bozeman, he of Cal-Berkeley infamy, has done a nice job turning Morgan State into perhaps the MEAC's best program. But the Bears now appear to have some company with improving Norfolk State and Savannah State.
Missouri Valley
New: Loyola-Chicago
Gone: Creighton
Something To Note: Please indulge me a "It's a small world" personal aside. MVC newbie Loyola is coached by Porter Moser, younger brother of Matt Moser. Before moving back to Minnesota in the late 70s, I shared a youth-league All-Star baseball team with Matt in Naperville, Ill. After winning a sub-regional, our quest for Williamsport ended with a loss to Joliet on a field a stone's throw away from Joliet Prison (since closed). Why do I remember this so well? Because our mode of transportation to Joliet was the Moser family's "house on wheels/RV", and I thought it was about the coolest thing ever. OK, now back to our regular programming.
Mountain West
New: San Jose State, Utah State
Something To Note: The MWC was all the rage during the 2012-13 regular season, earning 5 NCAA bids, but then it proceeded to perform a face-plant of gigantic proportions in the NCAA Tournament, failing to get a team to the second weekend. The expectations should be more modest this season, with New Mexico and Boise State seemingly the only teams capable of playing more than two games after Selection Sunday.
Northeast
Gone: Monmouth, Quinnipiac
Something To Note: LIU looks to earn its fourth straight automatic bid, an impressive accomplishment no matter the size of your conference.
Ohio Valley
Something To Note: The OVC is now all about Belmont.
Pac 12
Something To Note: It says here the Pac 12 is on a serious up-tick. The league has recovered from its doldrums of a couple years ago, and I won't be surprised if it finishes as the 3rd-best conference (behind the Big Ten and ACC). Eight teams legitimately could be in the hunt for a NCAA spot, though I'm banking it'll end up being 5 or 6 in the Big Dance.
Patriot
New: Boston U, Loyola-Maryland
Something To Note: With Minnesota-native Mike Muscala (Bucknell) and C.J. McCollum (Lehigh) off to the NBA, the Patriot League race should be wide open. The two newcomers should be contenders, too.
SEC
Something To Note: LSU is one of my under-the-radar sleepers, but the Tigers will have to overcome a soft nonconference slate. This team could be dangerous in March if it gets enough scalps (Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee) during the SEC season.
Southern
Gone: College of Charleston
Something To Note: It's Davidson's last go-round in the SoCon before moving to the A-10 in 2014-15. it should be a two-horse race with Elon.
Southland
New: Abilene Christian, Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, New Orleans
Something To Note: Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are Division I newcomers and will play only 14 conference games. The remaining 12 SLC squads will play an 18-game conference slate.
SWAC
Something To Note: The SWAC contiunes to struggle with APR shortcomings. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling, and Mississippi Valley State are ineligible for the SWAC and all other postseason tournaments, leaving the conference with just seven teams eligible for the conference's automatic NCAA bid.
Summit
New: Denver
Gone: Kansas City, Oakland
Something To Note: North Dakota State coach "Better Call" Saul Phillips and Denver coach Joe Scott have scheduled to challenge their talented & veteran squads. The Bison's non-league slate includes Notre Dame, Ohio State, Saint Mary's, and Southern Miss, while the Pioneers get a crack at Belmont, Cal, Harvard, Saint Joseph's, Stanford, and Wyoming. Can either or both win enough quality games outside of their league to make themselves viable at-large candidates in the event they don't won the conference tournament? I see an outside chance at two NCAA bids. Not a great chance, but at least way more than a Lloyd Christmas chance.
Sun Belt
New: Georgia State, Texas-Arlington, Texas State
Gone: FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas
Something To Note: Western Kentucky has won each of the last two Sun Belt tournaments by having to win four games in four days. Don't expect it to happen a third straight time. This time the Hilltoppers will get 'er done in three.
West Coast
New: Pacific
Something To Note: My other under-the-radar sleeper (see LSU above) is BYU. Despite losing forward Brandon Davies to the NBA, Cougar fans should have big expectations with the return of 6-5 junior guard Tyler Haws. Haws has the ability to take the Cougars to "Jimmer" heights, which for the BYU faithful means the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
WAC
New: Cal State-Bakersfield, Chicago State, Grand Canyon, Kansas City, Texas-Pan American, Utah Valley
Gone: Denver, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Texas-Arlington, Texas-San Antonio, Texas State, Utah State
Something To Note: The stone-cold, 100%, put-it-in-the-bank lock of the upcoming college hoops season is that New Mexico State will earn the new-look WAC's automatic bid. "New look" is putting it kindly. Just take a gander at the new teams entering the league. What an awful, awful basketball conglomeration. That said, NMSU is a solid basketball program, and assuming they remain in the WAC (not a given), the Aggies should run roughshod over this group of lightweights on a yearly basis, provided they stick around.
Independent/Defunct Great West
Who's Gone: Cal State-Bakersfield, Chicago State, Houston Baptist, New Orleans, Texas-Pan American, Utah Valley
Something To Note: "1" is indeed the loneliest number. NJIT is the only remaining Division I independent, and these Highlanders certainly won't be in the hunt for an at-large bid like the Digger Phelps (Notre Dame) and Ray Meyer (DePaul) Independent days of long ago.
By SelectionSunday
http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/294977?referrer_id=388419
DINKYTOWN, Minn. -- October's arrival means the college basketball season is sneaking a peek around the corner, and that is always a good thing. With that comes the return of Road to Selection Sunday, Gopher Hole's semi-regular odds-and-ends, bits-and-pieces kind a' college basketball column. Sometimes you'll get stats, sometimes you'll get opinions, and sometimes it may just be long-winded gibberish, but one thing we do hope is that it'll always be informative.
To that end, let's kick off the 2013-14 hoops campaign with one of our staples, the preseason NCAA Tournament Field of 68 Projection. With a twinge of sadness, I can't bring myself to project the 2013-14 Minnesota Golden Gophers into the tournament field, though it's certainly not to be dismissed as a possibility when you boast an experienced and talented backcourt tandem of Hollins (Austin and Andre) x 2.
What it comes down to is this: I just can't see the Gophers' frontcourt holding up sufficiently throughout the course of an entire Big Ten season, specifically at the PF position. I'm of the belief that "Aw-crap-I'm-still-at-FIU" Rakeem Buckles wouldn't have been a world-beater, but if playing at Williams Arena and anywhere near 100%, I think he would have been a key enough cog to catapult the Gophers over the hump and back into the NCAA tourney. But that's a moot point, let's move forward.
Last year RTSS' preseason projection accurately pegged 43 of the 68 NCAA qualifiers (63.2%), an improvement of three from 2011-12. Of those 43, 16 were automatic qualifiers: Miami (ACC); Saint Louis (Atlantic 10); Louisville (Big East); Montana (Big Sky); Ohio State (Big Ten); Kansas (Big XII); Memphis (Conference USA); Iona (Metro Atlantic); Creighton (Missouri Valley); New Mexico (Mountain West); Long Island (Northeast); Bucknell (Patriot); Ole Miss (SEC); Davidson (Southern); South Dakota State (Summit); and Gonzaga (West Coast).
PRESEASON FIELD OF 68 PROJECTION (10/1/13)
America East (1): Stony Brook
American (4): Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Memphis
ACC (6): Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Virginia
Atlantic Sun (1): Florida Gulf Coast
Atlantic 10 (3): La Salle, Massachusetts, VCU
Big East (5): Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette, Saint John's, Villanova
Big Sky (1): North Dakota
Big South (1): Coastal Carolina
Big Ten (7): Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big XII (4): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma State
Big West (1): Cal Poly
Colonial (1): Towson
Conference USA (1): Southern Miss
Horizon (1): Green Bay
Ivy (1): Harvard
Metro Atlantic (1): Manhattan
MAC (1): Toledo
MEAC (1): Morgan State
Missouri Valley (2): Indiana State, Wichita State
Mountain West (3): Boise State, New Mexico, San Diego State
Northeast (1): Bryant
Ohio Valley (1): Belmont
Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA
Patriot (1): Lafayette
SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee
Southern (1): Elon
Southland (1): Northwestern State
SWAC (1): Texas Southern
Summit (1): North Dakota State
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
West Coast (2): BYU, Gonzaga
WAC (1): New Mexico State
_____________________________
Last 4 In (Dayton-Bound): Arizona State, Indiana State, Massachusetts, Purdue
First 4 Out: Denver, Illinois, Middle Tennessee State, Pitt
Others Considered (12): Alabama, Boston College, Cal, Louisiana Tech, Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Ole Miss, Richmond, Saint Louis, UNLV, Washington, Xavier
You Might Have Noticed
We have one new conference for the 2013-14 season, the American Athletic (let's just call it the American), which means there will be 32 automatic qualifiers for the 2014 NCAA Tournament and one less at-large bid. Coaches most certainly will whine about that throughout the season (expect to hear louder complaints about the need to expand the NCAA field), especially immediately after Selection Sunday, but that's for another day.
For the here and now, let's get up to speed on each of the 32 conferences. ... who's new, who's departed, and something to keep an eye on in 2013-14.
America East
New: UMass-Lowell
Gone: Boston U
Something To Note: I found this stat amazing last year, and it still applies today. Maine coach Ted Woodward has not won a conference tournament game since 2005. That's 8 consecutive years of one and done. Somehow, he's still employed.
American
New: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Rutgers, South Florida, SMU, Temple
Something To Note: For my money SMU is the most interesting story coming out of the new "AAC'. With the pending arrival of hot-shot recruit Emmanuel Mudiay in 2014, the Mustangs are gathering momentum. Can it continue on the court in what should be a competitive conference?
ACC
New: Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse
Something To Note: ACC vs. Big Ten. More so than any other season, I'll be watching those two conferences go head to head for bragging rights as the best conference in 2013-14, and I'm not necessarily referring to their annual challenge. Mostly I'm talking about how the Big 2 perform in "primo" regular-season matchups and vs. one another during March Madness. The likes of Duke, (future B1G member) Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse, et al, vs. the likes of Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, etc. Let's get it on.
Atlantic Sun
Something To Note: Let's see how Florida Gulf Coast and new head coach Joe Dooley handle being the hunted. After advancing to the Sweet 16 in highlight-reel fashion and returning most of its key players, FGCU might as well be Bullseye, Target's cute doggie mascot. The high-flying Eagles will have one resting squarely on their backs.
Atlantic 10
New: George Mason
Gone: Butler, Charlotte, Temple, Xavier
Something To Note: The league took a serious hit losing Butler, Temple, and Xavier, though in fairness all three programs appear headed for down seasons in their new conferences. Expect La Salle and especially VCU to step in and capitalize. Long haul, I'm not convinced Saint Louis' success will continue under Jim Crews.
Big East
New: Butler, Creighton, Xavier
Gone: Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pitt, Rutgers, South Florida, Syracuse
Something To Note: Though it won't be the brutally tough Big East we've come to know and love, this still will be a quality league. How will Butler, Creighton, and X -- all quality programs -- handle the upgrade in physical talent they'll now face night-in and night-out?
Big Sky
Something To Note: Is it possible the 2014 NCAA tourney will include two teams from the state of North Dakota? That's what RTSS' crystal ball says. If that were to occur, in the name of state pride would Bison fans cheer for the Fighting Sioux, and vice versa? Don't think so.
Big South
Something To Note: Other than Syracuse, Coastal Carolina is the only Gopher nonconference opponent I'm projecting to make the NCAA Tournament.
Big Ten
Something To Note: It's a broken record, but I'll say it again. The conference has not won the Big Enchilada since Michigan State cut down the nets in 2000. As strong as the B1G is right now basketball-wise, that monkey is getting bigger and bigger with each passing season. Depth is great, and is the sign of a truly strong conference, but at some point ya' gotta' take the crown.
Big XII
Something To Note: I know Scott Drew has his detractors, some of it well deserved, but I think his Baylor squad is going to rebound in a big way after last season's disappointing season ended with a NIT championship. No, don't be silly, Kansas will win and/or share its 10th consecutive Big XII title, but I fully expect Drew's Bears to be a factor in March, maybe even more so than talented Marcus Smart/Oklahoma State.
Big West
Gone: Pacific
Something To Note: Former Gopher head coach Dan Monson has done it again, putting together a monster nonconference schedule for his 49ers. The 49ers play four opponents I'm projecting into the Field of 68 (Arizona, Creighton, Michigan, Missouri), and play three others that finished in the top 100 of the RPI, NCAA qualifiers Kansas State (20) and NC State (33), as well as Washington (88). The average RPI of LBSU's nonconference opponents is 74.1, the lowest in the country. That's impressive no matter how you slice it.
Colonial
New: College of Charleston
Gone: George Mason, Georgia State, Old Dominion
Something To Note: What was once a promising mid-major league (see Final Four trips by since departed George Mason and VCU) has now morphed backwards to a likely 1-bidder. Is there a program capable of stepping into the role of CAA bell-cow? Bueller? Bueller, Anyone?
Conference USA
New: Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas, Old Dominion, Texas-San Antonio
Gone: Central Florida, Houston, Memphis, SMU
Something To Note: The more things change, the more things stay the same. C-USA remains a mass-of-humanity entity (16 teams), except now with the departure of Memphis it lacks a truly name program. Even with 16 teams, I'm not sure C-USA has the goods to get a 2nd team into the NCAA.
Horizon
New: Oakland
Gone: Loyola-Chicago
Something To Note: Don't be surprised if Oakland and sharp-shooter Travis Bader are immediate factors in their new home.
Ivy
Something To Note: Rookie of the Year and 1st-Team All-Ivy League selection Siyani Chambers (Hopkins) looks to get the Crimson to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament after reaching the Round of 32 last season with an upset of New Mexico.
Metro Atlantic
New: Monmouth, Quinnipiac
Gone: Loyola-Maryland
Something To Note: Iona seeks its third straight trip to the NCAA.
MAC
Something To Note: Former Michigan State player and Tom Izzo assistant Mark Montgomery enters his third season at Northern Illinois with a 10-51 overall record (6-26 in the MAC). Would think some significant improvement is required for Montgomery to stick around for a 4th season?
MEAC
Something To Note: Todd Bozeman, he of Cal-Berkeley infamy, has done a nice job turning Morgan State into perhaps the MEAC's best program. But the Bears now appear to have some company with improving Norfolk State and Savannah State.
Missouri Valley
New: Loyola-Chicago
Gone: Creighton
Something To Note: Please indulge me a "It's a small world" personal aside. MVC newbie Loyola is coached by Porter Moser, younger brother of Matt Moser. Before moving back to Minnesota in the late 70s, I shared a youth-league All-Star baseball team with Matt in Naperville, Ill. After winning a sub-regional, our quest for Williamsport ended with a loss to Joliet on a field a stone's throw away from Joliet Prison (since closed). Why do I remember this so well? Because our mode of transportation to Joliet was the Moser family's "house on wheels/RV", and I thought it was about the coolest thing ever. OK, now back to our regular programming.
Mountain West
New: San Jose State, Utah State
Something To Note: The MWC was all the rage during the 2012-13 regular season, earning 5 NCAA bids, but then it proceeded to perform a face-plant of gigantic proportions in the NCAA Tournament, failing to get a team to the second weekend. The expectations should be more modest this season, with New Mexico and Boise State seemingly the only teams capable of playing more than two games after Selection Sunday.
Northeast
Gone: Monmouth, Quinnipiac
Something To Note: LIU looks to earn its fourth straight automatic bid, an impressive accomplishment no matter the size of your conference.
Ohio Valley
Something To Note: The OVC is now all about Belmont.
Pac 12
Something To Note: It says here the Pac 12 is on a serious up-tick. The league has recovered from its doldrums of a couple years ago, and I won't be surprised if it finishes as the 3rd-best conference (behind the Big Ten and ACC). Eight teams legitimately could be in the hunt for a NCAA spot, though I'm banking it'll end up being 5 or 6 in the Big Dance.
Patriot
New: Boston U, Loyola-Maryland
Something To Note: With Minnesota-native Mike Muscala (Bucknell) and C.J. McCollum (Lehigh) off to the NBA, the Patriot League race should be wide open. The two newcomers should be contenders, too.
SEC
Something To Note: LSU is one of my under-the-radar sleepers, but the Tigers will have to overcome a soft nonconference slate. This team could be dangerous in March if it gets enough scalps (Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee) during the SEC season.
Southern
Gone: College of Charleston
Something To Note: It's Davidson's last go-round in the SoCon before moving to the A-10 in 2014-15. it should be a two-horse race with Elon.
Southland
New: Abilene Christian, Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, New Orleans
Something To Note: Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are Division I newcomers and will play only 14 conference games. The remaining 12 SLC squads will play an 18-game conference slate.
SWAC
Something To Note: The SWAC contiunes to struggle with APR shortcomings. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling, and Mississippi Valley State are ineligible for the SWAC and all other postseason tournaments, leaving the conference with just seven teams eligible for the conference's automatic NCAA bid.
Summit
New: Denver
Gone: Kansas City, Oakland
Something To Note: North Dakota State coach "Better Call" Saul Phillips and Denver coach Joe Scott have scheduled to challenge their talented & veteran squads. The Bison's non-league slate includes Notre Dame, Ohio State, Saint Mary's, and Southern Miss, while the Pioneers get a crack at Belmont, Cal, Harvard, Saint Joseph's, Stanford, and Wyoming. Can either or both win enough quality games outside of their league to make themselves viable at-large candidates in the event they don't won the conference tournament? I see an outside chance at two NCAA bids. Not a great chance, but at least way more than a Lloyd Christmas chance.
Sun Belt
New: Georgia State, Texas-Arlington, Texas State
Gone: FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee State, North Texas
Something To Note: Western Kentucky has won each of the last two Sun Belt tournaments by having to win four games in four days. Don't expect it to happen a third straight time. This time the Hilltoppers will get 'er done in three.
West Coast
New: Pacific
Something To Note: My other under-the-radar sleeper (see LSU above) is BYU. Despite losing forward Brandon Davies to the NBA, Cougar fans should have big expectations with the return of 6-5 junior guard Tyler Haws. Haws has the ability to take the Cougars to "Jimmer" heights, which for the BYU faithful means the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
WAC
New: Cal State-Bakersfield, Chicago State, Grand Canyon, Kansas City, Texas-Pan American, Utah Valley
Gone: Denver, Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, Texas-Arlington, Texas-San Antonio, Texas State, Utah State
Something To Note: The stone-cold, 100%, put-it-in-the-bank lock of the upcoming college hoops season is that New Mexico State will earn the new-look WAC's automatic bid. "New look" is putting it kindly. Just take a gander at the new teams entering the league. What an awful, awful basketball conglomeration. That said, NMSU is a solid basketball program, and assuming they remain in the WAC (not a given), the Aggies should run roughshod over this group of lightweights on a yearly basis, provided they stick around.
Independent/Defunct Great West
Who's Gone: Cal State-Bakersfield, Chicago State, Houston Baptist, New Orleans, Texas-Pan American, Utah Valley
Something To Note: "1" is indeed the loneliest number. NJIT is the only remaining Division I independent, and these Highlanders certainly won't be in the hunt for an at-large bid like the Digger Phelps (Notre Dame) and Ray Meyer (DePaul) Independent days of long ago.
