Is our cupboard really that bare?

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GopherPoke

GopherPoke

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Pitino will more than likely be gone within a week or so. I contend the Gophers have the possibility of a decent returning group. Will we see mass defections with a coaching change? It's definitely possible, but what are the chances the opposite happens. The Gophers could return with most players that handily beat multiple very good teams (and also got smoked by many good teams as well). We all seem in agreement that an upgrade in coach would improve this record. Here's hoping some of the players see this as well and stick around to help. I admit that this all up in the air, but many on hear say we'll be bad next year. Assuming Carr leaves, I am hoping for the return of Mashburn, Gabe, Williams, Robbins, Johnson, Ihnen, maybe more/maybe less. That's not a bad start for a new coach. Opinions abound, this is mine.
 

GopherPoke said:
I admit that this all up in the air, but many on hear say we'll be bad next year. Assuming Carr leaves, I am hoping for the return of Mashburn, Gabe, Williams, Robbins, Johnson, Ihnen, maybe more/maybe less. That's not a bad start for a new coach. Opinions abound, this is mine.
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I think the view of "we'll be bad" the year after a coaching change is sort of a default position because that seems to happen more often than not. On the other hand, one could see this as a bad news-good news situation with the bad news being that we may lose some players and the good news being that we could lose some players (hopefully, to be replaced by players who are no worse). The general environment may point to the biggest transfer pool yet which gives rise to potential gains as well as potential losses.

There certainly is a possibility that the holdovers can be invigorated by a coaching change and some new players on the team. Pitino even seemed to benefit a bit from this in his first year (as we know, the effect was short lived).
 

GopherPoke said:
Pitino will more than likely be gone within a week or so. I contend the Gophers have the possibility of a decent returning group. Will we see mass defections with a coaching change? It's definitely possible, but what are the chances the opposite happens. The Gophers could return with most players that handily beat multiple very good teams (and also got smoked by many good teams as well). We all seem in agreement that an upgrade in coach would improve this record. Here's hoping some of the players see this as well and stick around to help. I admit that this all up in the air, but many on hear say we'll be bad next year. Assuming Carr leaves, I am hoping for the return of Mashburn, Gabe, Williams, Robbins, Johnson, Ihnen, maybe more/maybe less. That's not a bad start for a new coach. Opinions abound, this is mine.
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Great post. I think they have the athleticism/ability to defend better, and i don't see how we could get much more inefficient on O than we already were. No reason we can't be a bubble team next year, plus we have the opportunity to add players in the offseason as well.
 




The cupboard is clearly not bare. This team has the talent to beat top 10 teams like Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State. That doesn't happen if the players are all garbage.

Under Pitino it has always felt like we have some talented individual players but never seen to have a consistent cohesive team. Often feels like they are just out there playing pick up ball with a bunch of guys that don't know what else to do so they just stand out beyond the 3 point line and shoot.

Above all else, I hope they find a coach that can develop an identity for this team and program. After 8 years under Pitino it doesn't feel like we have one at all.
 

MNVCGUY said:
The cupboard is clearly not bare. This team has the talent to beat top 10 teams like Michigan, Iowa and Ohio State. That doesn't happen if the players are all garbage.

Under Pitino it has always felt like we have some talented individual players but never seen to have a consistent cohesive team. Often feels like they are just out there playing pick up ball with a bunch of guys that don't know what else to do so they just stand out beyond the 3 point line and shoot.

Above all else, I hope they find a coach that can develop an identity for this team and program. After 8 years under Pitino it doesn't feel like we have one at all.
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Feels kind of similar to Brewster in that regard.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Often feels like they are just out there playing pick up ball with a bunch of guys that don't know what else to do so they just stand out beyond the 3 point line and shoot.
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By far my biggest complaint with Pitinoball.
 




Cupboard is not bare, but it isn't full either.

I don't see Carr as returning and to be honest, it might not be a bad thing.

If I am the new coach when I get here, I tell them I have watched your tape from the last few years. And if you are not "on board" with playing like your hair is on fire, not giving up and giving it exactly 100%, then I don't want you on this team.

The culture around this program IMO, is the #1 problem with it. We are fine with excuses, guys consistently playing dumb and losing to teams they have no business in doing so. We are fine not even being competitive on the road and use playing there like a crutch. Flush anyone out that isn't on the same page. I don't care if they are your most talented player. Building the right culture/program and a mentally strong team is more important that anything else the next couple years.
 

MinnGopher said:
Great post. I think they have the athleticism/ability to defend better, and i don't see how we could get much more inefficient on O than we already were. No reason we can't be a bubble team next year, plus we have the opportunity to add players in the offseason as well.
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I don't think our defense can be any worse. Offensively, we've been fine for the most part. It's boring and ugly, but it's not totally inefficient.

Last 5 Years of Kenpom Rankings within the B1G
Offense
16-17-10th (Pitino's best record)
17-18- 13th
18-19- 7th (Pitino's second best year)
19-20- 6th
20-21- 9th

Defense
16-17- 2nd
17-18- 13th
18-19- 11th
19-20- 11th
20-21- 13th
 

Up until the last few weeks, I always expected for next years team to make the tourney assuming everyone comes back except Carr and we get a quality grad transfer PG.

Instill think that’s the case as long as Liam, Mash, Gabe, Gach, Johnson, Tre and Ihnen come back. I wouldn’t mind losing two of Pohto, Freeman and Mitchell though along with Omersa.

Get those top 7 guys back, get a quality transfer PG and get another quality transfer like Jamison Battle or David Roddy and I think next years team has a good chance to make the tournament.
 

I have said this several times before, but the transfer numbers make being good in year 1 of a new coach WAY easier.

I think the dream scenario is something along the lines of what Louisville did this year. After the 2019-2020 year they lost their top 4 minutes guys and the guy who was 5th in minutes only has played 3 games this year. So they went out and got Carlik Jones from Radford, added a few freshman and everyone else in line took a step up. They sit 13-6 and a lock for a middle of the road seed. If the new coach could find a high end mid-major guy and sell him that he will move to the B1G and run the show that would be great, maybe add in another transfer or 2 and hope guys like Mash/Tre/Ihnen take a step up, maybe a new coach could unlock Mitchell and you are in the mix.

That is best case, there are certainly scenarios out there where we have a lot of exits and it is too late in the cycle to pick up anyone and we really really struggle next year. The cupboards arent totally bare, but the expiration dates are starting to get close and things could spoil quickly if a new injection of talent isnt added.
 



Go Gophs said:
The culture around this program IMO, is the #1 problem with it.
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The seemingly constant look of apathy in the bench area is also a sign of this culture. It shouldn't take the coaches direction to liven up the bench, but it certainly wouldn't hurt.
 

manderson1984 said:
I don't think our defense can be any worse. Offensively, we've been fine for the most part. It's boring and ugly, but it's not totally inefficient.

Last 5 Years of Kenpom Rankings within the B1G
Offense
16-17-10th (Pitino's best record)
17-18- 13th
18-19- 7th (Pitino's second best year)
19-20- 6th
20-21- 9th

Defense
16-17- 2nd
17-18- 13th
18-19- 11th
19-20- 11th
20-21- 13th
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That's not fine.(offense)

That is terrible and another reason we are bad. This is what I am talking about. It is allowed, not improved and no one cares. You want to finish top 4 in the league, then you play both offense in defense top 4 in the league. HOT GARBAGE ALL OF IT.
 

The two main reasons for Gophers demise this year were having a second option to Robbins, and shooters (duh). Purdue is the example. Haarms transferred to BYU, and Painter is good enough that it didn't matter much. And he wasn't solely dependent on Haarms. Gophers lineup at the beg. of the season had promise, and who knew Gach would regress from his time at Utah (maybe injury, in all fairness). But they were always going to be in tough spot if Robbins went down. Johnson is good, but need a couple bigger bodies (6'10 or 7'00). Coaching being the third non-personnel related.
 

Cupboard certainly isn't bare but needs some additional pieces as well as some more depth. Improvements can be made both with who we have as well as who we will be replacing.
 

Go Gophs said:
That's not fine.(offense)

That is terrible and another reason we are bad. This is what I am talking about. It is allowed, not improved and no one cares. You want to finish top 4 in the league, then you play both offense in defense top 4 in the league. HOT GARBAGE ALL OF IT.
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I hear your point, but if you look at teams that are listed in for the last 3 years. You cannot rank below 10th in defense and succeed unless you are dynamic offensively (Iowa). I do not like that we were 9th in the B1G on offense, but it was not our biggest issue and it hasn't been in Pitino's tenure. That's my point.

2018-19 Kenpom O and D rank within B1G conference
Purdue (Off: 1 Def: 9)
Michigan St. (Off: 2 Def: 3)
Wisconsin (Off: 8 Def:2)
Michigan (Off: 3 Def:1)

2019-20 Top 4 Kenpom Off rating and national ranking and D rating and national ranking
Maryland (Off: 4 Def:6 )
Wisconsin (Off: 8 Def:4)
Michigan St. (Off: 2 Def:3)
Illinois (Off: 7 Def:10) This is an outlier

2020-21 Top 4
Michigan (Off: 3 Def:1)
Illinois (Off: 4 Def: 2)
Iowa (Off: 1 Def: 12)
Purdue (Off: 5 Def:5)
 

manderson1984 said:
I don't think our defense can be any worse. Offensively, we've been fine for the most part. It's boring and ugly, but it's not totally inefficient.

Last 5 Years of Kenpom Rankings within the B1G
Offense
16-17-10th (Pitino's best record)
17-18- 13th
18-19- 7th (Pitino's second best year)
19-20- 6th
20-21- 9th

Defense
16-17- 2nd
17-18- 13th
18-19- 11th
19-20- 11th
20-21- 13th
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Surprised by that tbh. The avg shooting percentages of Pitino's tenure including this year are: FG-42.95% and 3P-33.4%. I'm sure its weighted for competition but our O is brutal in B1G play.

For a measuring stick, the average 42.95% would be good for 231st best shooting percentage out of 340 D1 teams this year, and the average of 33.4% from 3pt would be good for 192nd out of 340 D1 teams. Was kind of surprised that we actually shot the 3 ball better than I thought we would have over his tenure.
 
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Let's face it - a lot of people are assuming that Robbins will leave if Uncle Ed gets the ax along with the rest of Pitino's staff.

IF that happens, and Carr leaves, the new Coach is going to need to bring in - at the very least - transfers who are capable of being the starting PG and starting C in the B1G.

And that makes the timing of the hire vital. the sooner a new coach is hired, the sooner that he can start trying to line up transfers and figure out what next year's roster looks like.

A late hire, and MN could wind up being left standing in the game of musical transfers when the music stops playing.
 

manderson1984 said:
I don't think our defense can be any worse. Offensively, we've been fine for the most part. It's boring and ugly, but it's not totally inefficient.

Last 5 Years of Kenpom Rankings within the B1G
Offense
16-17-10th (Pitino's best record)
17-18- 13th
18-19- 7th (Pitino's second best year)
19-20- 6th
20-21- 9th

Defense
16-17- 2nd
17-18- 13th
18-19- 11th
19-20- 11th
20-21- 13th
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I'd be interested in knowing where our defense stood in the rankings when we were 4-4 in the Big Ten. It was pretty solid in most of those games and great in a few. No defense of Pitino here but the injuries most definitely played a part.

As to the offense, this is one of the worst shooting teams I have ever seen. 39% FG percentage and 29% from 3 point range is pitiful. We didn't turn the ball over that badly but our shot selection and ability to convert was really bad. The only thing saving our bacon on offense has been the ability to get fouled and make the free throws.

Through the 4-4 stretch (11-4 overall) I thought our defense was ahead of our offense.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Let's face it - a lot of people are assuming that Robbins will leave if Uncle Ed gets the ax along with the rest of Pitino's staff.

IF that happens, and Carr leaves, the new Coach is going to need to bring in - at the very least - transfers who are capable of being the starting PG and starting C in the B1G.

And that makes the timing of the hire vital. the sooner a new coach is hired, the sooner that he can start trying to line up transfers and figure out what next year's roster looks like.

A late hire, and MN could wind up being left standing in the game of musical transfers when the music stops playing.
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So, more of the same.
 

Let's go get Chris Beard, and there's a much better chance our best players (Carr, Robbins, Mashburn, Johnson, Kalscheur) stick around. I wouldn't mind seeing what Beard could do with those 5 as the meat of his roster! I think we'd probably see better results, ya' think?
 

Some guy said:
The cupboard is pretty bare. We got 13th and are likely losing our best player.
Maybe will lose our second best.

coukdnt even tell you who our third best is.

This roster is bad outside of Carr and Robbins.
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The roster has plenty of issues but there are pieces to work with. Gach is better than he has been playing, Gabe is solid, Mashburn has some definite talent.....the new coach will have to fill some holes depending on who leave and who stays but there will be some decent pieces to work with.

New coach is going to have to find some size, someone capable of defending down low because right now all they have is Robins and without him in there teams pretty much can get to the basket anytime they need to for an easy layup.
 

bga1 said:
I'd be interested in knowing where our defense stood in the rankings when we were 4-4 in the Big Ten. It was pretty solid in most of those games and great in a few. No defense of Pitino here but the injuries most definitely played a part.

As to the offense, this is one of the worst shooting teams I have ever seen. 39% FG percentage and 29% from 3 point range is pitiful. We didn't turn the ball over that badly but our shot selection and ability to convert was really bad. The only thing saving our bacon on offense has been the ability to get fouled and make the free throws.

Through the 4-4 stretch (11-4 overall) I thought our defense was ahead of our offense.
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We were in the top half of the B1G on KenPom until mid January I believe. It did rank ahead of the offense for a short while.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Let's face it - a lot of people are assuming that Robbins will leave if Uncle Ed gets the ax along with the rest of Pitino's staff.

IF that happens, and Carr leaves, the new Coach is going to need to bring in - at the very least - transfers who are capable of being the starting PG and starting C in the B1G.

And that makes the timing of the hire vital. the sooner a new coach is hired, the sooner that he can start trying to line up transfers and figure out what next year's roster looks like.

A late hire, and MN could wind up being left standing in the game of musical transfers when the music stops playing.
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Liam transferred on April 5th and Both transferred in July. Mac McClung committed to TT in May. With the waiver, this is the one year I don't worry a ton about being super late to the transfer party. That pool will be plenty full of fish. I just want whomever gets the job to set a tone with certain players types
 

SelectionSunday said:
Let's go get Chris Beard, and there's a much better chance our best players (Carr, Robbins, Mashburn, Johnson, Kalscheur) stick around. I wouldn't mind seeing what Beard could do with those 5 as the meat of his roster! I think we'd probably see better results, ya' think?
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I'd take Beard but I'd venture to guess he's either comfortable coaching there where he's being successful or he's going to jump ship to something much bigger than one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.
 

tmvander said:
I'd take Beard but I'd venture to guess he's either comfortable coaching there where he's being successful or he's going to jump ship to something much bigger than one of the worst teams in the Big Ten.
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Yep, I realize the U is not likely to empty the bank for a guy of Beard’s stature. But if you want to dream big, he’d be a good place to start.
 

Basketball and football are totally different games. I care a lot more about the "cupboard" when it comes to football.

With football, if a coach is hired in January, they won't bring their first HS recruits on campus until their 2nd year, and then they won't likely be major contributors until their 3rd-4th year.

In basketball, new coaches can still sign guys who are uncommitted in the month or two after they are hired, and get them on campus right away. They can get transfers who are immediately eligible. And freshman regularly contribute to teams in basketball in ways they can't in football because of the physicality.

Hell, Pitino restocked his own cupboard in April-June of every year (Liam/Gach/Johnson/Mutaf last year, Ihnen/Greenlee/Demir/Freeman the year before...impact guys like Joey King, Jordan Murphy were spring pickups. Whomever we hire will have a chance to do the same, particularly with the relaxed transfer rules.
 

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