Is Minnesota still alive for CFP?

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fmlizard

fmlizard

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Ok, this is admittedly crazy and highly unlikely, but would a 11-2 Big Ten Champion Gopher team make the CFP?

The first loss - Ohio State in Week 1 in a competitive game - is textbook survivable. It would likely be avenged in this win-out scenario.

Is the BG affair too damning to ever overcome to that extent?

Could the champion of this season's best conference possibly be excluded?
 


Alive? Yes. In control of our own destiny? No.

An 11-2 B1G Champion Gopher team could make it this year, but we need teams to fall. We'd be behind the SEC champ, a 12-1 Oregon team, an undefeated or one-loss Oklahoma team, an undefeated Cincinnati team, an undefeated Wake Forest team, and probably a 1 loss SEC non-champ. So we need 3 of those things not to happen.
 


BOGO is not free of penalty. So no.

If they win out the rest of the season, the decision to go for it on 4th down will haunt PJ Fleck for a long time.

One bad decision against BG could have cost him a trip to the CFP. These are pipe dreams. There are still games remaining to be played.

If they win out and beat tOSU, this becomes a heavy lesson for a young up-and-coming coach.
 



bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Alive? Yes. In control of our own destiny? No.

An 11-2 B1G Champion Gopher team could make it this year, but we need teams to fall. We'd be behind the SEC champ, a 12-1 Oregon team, an undefeated or one-loss Oklahoma team, an undefeated Cincinnati team, an undefeated Wake Forest team, and probably a 1 loss SEC non-champ. So we need 3 of those things not to happen.
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This

Could it happen....sure....but it would take a ton of chaos for it to be possible.
 

hungan1 said:
BOGO is not free of penalty. So no.

If they win out the rest of the season, the decision to go for it on 4th down will haunt PJ Fleck for a long time.

One bad decision against BG could have cost him a trip to the CFP. These are pipe dreams. There are still games remaining to be played.

If they win out and beat tOSU, this becomes a heavy lesson for a young up-and-coming coach.
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With all due respect I don't buy this line of thinking. Was the 4th down decision a key play in that game....sure.....but you can't pin a loss in a game like that on just one decision, especially a decision that happened pretty early in the game.

The BG game was lost by a bad gameplan on offense, some injuries and a horrible performance by the offensive line. I have no doubt Fleck would love to take that 4th down decision back in hindsight but that one play didn't lose the game.
 




bleedsmaroonandgold said:
Alive? Yes. In control of our own destiny? No.

An 11-2 B1G Champion Gopher team could make it this year, but we need teams to fall. We'd be behind the SEC champ, a 12-1 Oregon team, an undefeated or one-loss Oklahoma team, an undefeated Cincinnati team, an undefeated Wake Forest team, and probably a 1 loss SEC non-champ. So we need 3 of those things not to happen.
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I think we'd be behind every power 5 two loss team even if we'd win the Big Ten title.
 

Assuming Alabama and Georgia won't both get in and that the ACC champ will be 3-loss Clemson, then there is a chance.

Have to get ranked higher than Notre Dame, Cincy, and/or the PAC-12 champ.

Assume SEC champ and Big 12 champ (OU undefeated) are locks.


Personally, if we run the table here on out and beat OSU in Indy, I would rather us get ranked 5 or lower and go to the Rose Bowl.
 

MNVCGUY said:
With all due respect I don't buy this line of thinking. Was the 4th down decision a key play in that game....sure.....but you can't pin a loss in a game like that on just one decision, especially a decision that happened pretty early in the game.

The BG game was lost by a bad gameplan on offense, some injuries and a horrible performance by the offensive line. I have no doubt Fleck would love to take that 4th down decision back in hindsight but that one play didn't lose the game.
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Agreed. And I hope he really learned from the BG loss because he never seemed to learn from the many other non-conference games that shouldn’t have been close over the years. He coaches far too conservative in the non-conference games, and this one will haunt him if they actually win out (although as much as would be fun is unlikely). Not a chance to go to playoffs with a loss like BG.
 
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Ozzy&Ray said:
Agreed. And I hope he really learned from the BG loss because he never seemed to learn from the many other non-conference games that shouldn’t have been close over the years. He coaches far too conservative in the non-conference games, and this one will haunt him if they actually win out (although as much as would be fun is unlikely). Not a chance to go to playoffs with a loss like BG.
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He is, in your mind, a poor learner.

Example: go for it on fourth down. Fail to convert. What have we learned?

A question: Is going for it on fourth down conservative?
 


No, but yes.

Year so strange.
A 2 loss Minnesota who wins big ten by beating Ohio state puts them in over Ohio state and entire east
An undefeated Georgia knocks out the possibility of 2nd sec team
Big 12 champ
Probably need Cincinnati and pac 12 champ to lose one more game and we would be 4th team.

Not likely, but very possible.

Don’t compare to previous years. Look at contenders this year.
There are only so many paths to 1 loss and unbeaten teams
 


I think they'd take a 2 loss tOHSU over us.

Bowling green loss killed it.

I'd be happy with rose bowl
 


I just thought, this would so classic MN sports.

we somehow win out and dont make it because our coaches did not adjust the game plan during the game vs BG.
 


Nope. That Bowling Green loss will loom large if we go undefeated from here...

But lets not get ahead of ourselves. Plenty of difficult games still on the schedule.
 


Even if the U doesnt lose again, they won't get in. And I believe that the committee would do all in their power to keep it that way. The Bowling Green loss is too damning for a playoff contender. If it was OSU and a 1 loss Iowa team, maybe. But not Bowling Green.
 

you-serious-clark-cousin-eddie.gif
 

MNVCGUY said:
With all due respect I don't buy this line of thinking. Was the 4th down decision a key play in that game....sure.....but you can't pin a loss in a game like that on just one decision, especially a decision that happened pretty early in the game.

The BG game was lost by a bad gameplan on offense, some injuries and a horrible performance by the offensive line. I have no doubt Fleck would love to take that 4th down decision back in hindsight but that one play didn't lose the game.
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The 4th and one call was the tip of the iceberg.
 

RememberMurray said:
He is, in your mind, a poor learner.

Example: go for it on fourth down. Fail to convert. What have we learned?

A question: Is going for it on fourth down conservative?
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I wasn’t talking about 4th down. I was responding to post about the conservative game plan, agreeing with that. There is a history of that with non-conf games against non P5 teams, and that is difficult to argue. A game against BG should not come down to anyone even thinking it could be about one 4th down call.
 
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SanDiegoGopherFan said:
I just thought, this would so classic MN sports.

we somehow win out and dont make it because our coaches did not adjust the game plan during the game vs BG.
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It would be classic Minnesota sports to win the big ten? I’ll take it
 

I'm A Maroon 2! said:
Even if the U doesnt lose again, they won't get in. And I believe that the committee would do all in their power to keep it that way. The Bowling Green loss is too damning for a playoff contender. If it was OSU and a 1 loss Iowa team, maybe. But not Bowling Green.
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If it was osu and a 1 loss Iowa team we aren’t in big ten title game and aren’t going:
 


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