We have 11 games left. According to Massey, the Gophers will be favored in three of them. The rest of our games:
Illinois, @Purdue, Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, @Rutgers, @Northwestern, Purdue, @Maryland
SelectionSunday says our magic number is 12 wins to be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament.
As of right now (5-4), we are on mostly on track to hit that number, but given the difficult of our schedule the rest of the way, winning 12 games in the conference this season seems unlikely. As I said, the Gophers are favored in only 3 of the remaining 11 games the rest of the way.
The narrative surrounding this team is that (a) we are very inefficient (b) our conference schedule thus far has not been difficult.
Our remaining schedule will surely fix (b).
As of today, the Gophers have 8 Quad1 games out of the remaining 11. Eight!
The Gophers are 4-3 in Quad1 games this season. Most tournament teams are not expected to have a winning record in Quad1 games. There are many teams ahead of the Gophers in NET rankings that are well below .500 in Quad1 games.
Butler, for example, is 1-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #50.
Florida is 1-7 in Quad1 games yet ranked #36
TCU is 0-4 in Quad1 games yet ranked #29
Auburn is 0-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #25
There are 25 teams ahead of the Gophers who have 2 or less Quad1 wins. There are 21 teams ahead of the Gophers who have losing records in Quad1 games.
All of this is to say that I don't think the Gophers need close to a winning record in Quad1 games in order to safely make the tournament. Now, a lot more factors than wins or losses in Quad1 games affect a team's NET rankings. I get that. But if the selection committee does use Quadrants to help determine which teams make it and which teams don't, the Gophers may be in a good position for this important component.
Without assuming the Gophers win the other 3 non-Quad1 games (they probably should if they don't want to be nervous on Selection Sunday), the Gophers probably only need to win 2 of those 8 Quad1 games in order to have a resume worthy to make the tournament. 7-10 in Quad1 games should be enough to show that the Gophers are a Top 40 team in the country.
It's probably important to note that games that project to be Quad1 may not be Quad1 when the season is over. Iowa, for example, is ranked #28 in NET. If they fall below #30, then that game will no longer be a Quad1 game.
Anyways, could this insanely tough schedule the rest of the way be a silver lining? Our SOS will obviously get better and we have a chance to steal a few number of Quad1 games.
Illinois, @Purdue, Wisconsin, @Michigan State, @Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, @Rutgers, @Northwestern, Purdue, @Maryland
SelectionSunday says our magic number is 12 wins to be comfortably in the NCAA Tournament.
As of right now (5-4), we are on mostly on track to hit that number, but given the difficult of our schedule the rest of the way, winning 12 games in the conference this season seems unlikely. As I said, the Gophers are favored in only 3 of the remaining 11 games the rest of the way.
The narrative surrounding this team is that (a) we are very inefficient (b) our conference schedule thus far has not been difficult.
Our remaining schedule will surely fix (b).
As of today, the Gophers have 8 Quad1 games out of the remaining 11. Eight!
The Gophers are 4-3 in Quad1 games this season. Most tournament teams are not expected to have a winning record in Quad1 games. There are many teams ahead of the Gophers in NET rankings that are well below .500 in Quad1 games.
Butler, for example, is 1-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #50.
Florida is 1-7 in Quad1 games yet ranked #36
TCU is 0-4 in Quad1 games yet ranked #29
Auburn is 0-5 in Quad1 games yet ranked #25
There are 25 teams ahead of the Gophers who have 2 or less Quad1 wins. There are 21 teams ahead of the Gophers who have losing records in Quad1 games.
All of this is to say that I don't think the Gophers need close to a winning record in Quad1 games in order to safely make the tournament. Now, a lot more factors than wins or losses in Quad1 games affect a team's NET rankings. I get that. But if the selection committee does use Quadrants to help determine which teams make it and which teams don't, the Gophers may be in a good position for this important component.
Without assuming the Gophers win the other 3 non-Quad1 games (they probably should if they don't want to be nervous on Selection Sunday), the Gophers probably only need to win 2 of those 8 Quad1 games in order to have a resume worthy to make the tournament. 7-10 in Quad1 games should be enough to show that the Gophers are a Top 40 team in the country.
It's probably important to note that games that project to be Quad1 may not be Quad1 when the season is over. Iowa, for example, is ranked #28 in NET. If they fall below #30, then that game will no longer be a Quad1 game.
Anyways, could this insanely tough schedule the rest of the way be a silver lining? Our SOS will obviously get better and we have a chance to steal a few number of Quad1 games.