Iowa 2009 = Gophers 2006???

[Golden Elephant]

OK, OK, things looked pretty bad for us yesterday, but we can all take a deep breath and be happy that we escaped with a win. And we can also look south to know we're not alone in uneasiness over our win yesterday.

Let's look in depth at a parallel that I think bears more scrutiny. Iowa 2009 = Gophers 2006. The win yesterday for me didn't leave me feeling great, but I felt good at least, and certainly not bad. It was a BCS opponent, on the road, 1st game under a new OC & DC. I thought about my feelings for while and thought, "Have there been any wins that I've actually felt bad about?" The answer to my question was yes, the Gophers 10-9 win over NDSU in 2006. That game I actually left before the final NDSU FG attempt and watched us block it at the top of the stairwell. We won, but I was so disgusted with our play that I actually felt very bad about the game. And thinking about this a little bit, many parallels with Iowa yesterday came to light:
1. 1 point victory over neighboring 1-AA/FCS school at home, blocking the other team's last second FG attempt that should have won the game for them
2. Coming off a pretty successful year that gave our coach a bit more respect after a previous season where there was some grumbling. 2005 we were 7-4/4-4 after 6-5/3-5 in 2004.
3. Losing a superstar RB that we were heavily dependent on the prior year with no obvious fill in: Maroney/Shonn Green - Pinnix was our replacement and was decent to good, but no Maroney obviously. On paper at least I would've expected Jewel Hampton to be a shade better than Pinnix was, but now Hampton's out for the season.
4. Solid, but not great returning QB - certain people have made a fuss over Stanzi, but I think this had more to do with Iowa's big win over Penn St last year than it did his actual ability. Cupito was serviceable for us, but certainly not great.

What other parallels am I missing?

Now we can just sit back and watch Iowa's season play out like ours did in 2006. So they should lose early in conference play - I could easily see them losing their first 4 conference games - at PSU, vs Mich, at Wisc, at MSU before turning things around vs Indiana & vs NW, then they'd lose at OSU before beating us at home (let's hope that part of the parallel plays out differently). Their other NC games are at Iowa St, vs Arizona and vs Arkansas St, so those could play out similarly too. We thumped Kent St & Temple but got thumped by Cal. I would guess neither Iowa St nor Arizona to be blowouts either way, but you could definitely see them splitting those. They should be able to pound Ark St.

Then we just need to sit back and wait for Iowa to set a new record for biggest lead given up in a bowl game and this will be the final straw for Iowans. They won't want to be paying a guy the top (or is it #2) salary in the Big10 so they can watch their team regress coming off a good season. And all their anger will boil over into a surprise firing.

Well, it's kind of fun to think about anyway. Iowans, before you start your flaming, just note that I'm not saying this will happen, but that it could. I think after yesterday, any honest Hawkeye fan would have to admit that.

 

[thailleagle]

That was the only win in my life of any sport or video game and any team I actually felt like we lost...it was so weird.......

 

[spermophilus]

My 1st Reaction Is "Who Cares" It's Iowa . . . That Said . . .

OK, OK, things looked pretty bad for us yesterday, but we can all take a deep breath and be happy that we escaped with a win. And we can also look south to know we're not alone in uneasiness over our win yesterday.

Let's look in depth at a parallel that I think bears more scrutiny. Iowa 2009 = Gophers 2006. The win yesterday for me didn't leave me feeling great, but I felt good at least, and certainly not bad. It was a BCS opponent, on the road, 1st game under a new OC & DC. I thought about my feelings for while and thought, "Have there been any wins that I've actually felt bad about?" The answer to my question was yes, the Gophers 10-9 win over NDSU in 2006. That game I actually left before the final NDSU FG attempt and watched us block it at the top of the stairwell. We won, but I was so disgusted with our play that I actually felt very bad about the game. And thinking about this a little bit, many parallels with Iowa yesterday came to light:
1. 1 point victory over neighboring 1-AA/FCS school at home, blocking the other team's last second FG attempt that should have won the game for them
2. Coming off a pretty successful year that gave our coach a bit more respect after a previous season where there was some grumbling. 2005 we were 7-4/4-4 after 6-5/3-5 in 2004.
3. Losing a superstar RB that we were heavily dependent on the prior year with no obvious fill in: Maroney/Shonn Green - Pinnix was our replacement and was decent to good, but no Maroney obviously. On paper at least I would've expected Jewel Hampton to be a shade better than Pinnix was, but now Hampton's out for the season.
4. Solid, but not great returning QB - certain people have made a fuss over Stanzi, but I think this had more to do with Iowa's big win over Penn St last year than it did his actual ability. Cupito was serviceable for us, but certainly not great.

What other parallels am I missing?

Now we can just sit back and watch Iowa's season play out like ours did in 2006. So they should lose early in conference play - I could easily see them losing their first 4 conference games - at PSU, vs Mich, at Wisc, at MSU before turning things around vs Indiana & vs NW, then they'd lose at OSU before beating us at home (let's hope that part of the parallel plays out differently). Their other NC games are at Iowa St, vs Arizona and vs Arkansas St, so those could play out similarly too. We thumped Kent St & Temple but got thumped by Cal. I would guess neither Iowa St nor Arizona to be blowouts either way, but you could definitely see them splitting those. They should be able to pound Ark St.

Then we just need to sit back and wait for Iowa to set a new record for biggest lead given up in a bowl game and this will be the final straw for Iowans. They won't want to be paying a guy the top (or is it #2) salary in the Big10 so they can watch their team regress coming off a good season. And all their anger will boil over into a surprise firing.

Well, it's kind of fun to think about anyway. Iowans, before you start your flaming, just note that I'm not saying this will happen, but that it could. I think after yesterday, any honest Hawkeye fan would have to admit that.

Doesn't your scenario put a wrench in their National Championship plans?!?!?

 

[DarrenTheGreek]

There are some parallels between 09 Iowa and 06 Minnesota like you mentioned, but there are other factors as well.
1) Iowa coaches have proven time and time again that they can right the ship from poor play early on.
2) Iowa fans are not going to abandon ship with a weak start like they would up here.
3) Iowa still has a strong defense that will keep them in games when the offense sucks, 06 Minnesota did not have that luxury.

Let's not write off the Hawkeyes just yet.

 

[Schnauzer]

That NDSU debacle was later in the season too. It was not an early non-con game. Plus, the Minnesota team wasn't predicted to be as good as this Iowa team.

 

[tjgopher]

The 2009 Northern Iowa team is better than the 2006 NDSU team. Heck, the 2009 Northern Iowa team is probably better than the 2009 Syracuse team.

 

[MplsHawk]

Then we just need to sit back and wait for Iowa to set a new record for biggest lead given up in a bowl game and this will be the final straw for Iowans. They won't want to be paying a guy the top (or is it #2) salary in the Big10 so they can watch their team regress coming off a good season. And all their anger will boil over into a surprise firing.

Well, it's kind of fun to think about anyway. Iowans, before you start your flaming, just note that I'm not saying this will happen, but that it could. I think after yesterday, any honest Hawkeye fan would have to admit that.

Well, most anything is possible . . . except the surprise firing. Ferentz has earned a lot of good will with Iowa fans and the Iowa administration. He could go 0-11 the rest of the way and not get fired this year. Short of some kind of scandal, Ferentz isn't and won't be on the hot seat IMO.

 

[Goldteam]

The 2009 Northern Iowa team is better than the 2006 NDSU team. Heck, the 2009 Northern Iowa team is probably better than the 2009 Syracuse team.

syracuse would have run northern iowa out of their dome last saturday

easily

 

[MplsHawk]

syracuse would have run northern iowa out of their dome last saturday

easily

Based on what? Northern Iowa was rated significantly higher than Syracuse last year, and likely will be again this year. Northern Iowa has a veteran team, and has beaten a BCS team in the last few years which was rated higher than Syracuse.

 

[Golden Elephant]

I don't know anything about Northern Iowa since I didn't watch the game, but I heard they were ranked #4 in FCS. NDSU was ranked #1 in FCS in 2006 and had a very senior-dominated team and they beat Ball St that year. So I think the strength of those 2 teams compares quite well.

 

[tjgopher]

I don't know anything about Northern Iowa since I didn't watch the game, but I heard they were ranked #4 in FCS. NDSU was ranked #1 in FCS in 2006 and had a very senior-dominated team and they beat Ball St that year. So I think the strength of those 2 teams compares quite well.

They compare a little bit, but overall, Northern Iowa has been the superior program. UNI is an annual FCS national title contender. NDSU has never contended for an FCS national title, although had NCAA rules allowed them into the post-season in 2006, they may have won a game or two in the playoffs.

2006 NDSU was never ranked No. 1. They got as high as #4, but played a cupcake FCS schedule, allowing them to attain a nice record because they belonged to a bad conference. They ran up an impressive record in 2007, as well, in the weak conference. Last year, they joined Northern Iowa's league (the MVC) and tumbled. We'll see how they do this year.

That said, that 2006 NDSU team was good, I would never say otherwise. I simply think the 2009 UNI team is better.

 

[StPaulHawkeye]

OK, OK, things looked pretty bad for us yesterday, but we can all take a deep breath and be happy that we escaped with a win. And we can also look south to know we're not alone in uneasiness over our win yesterday.

I agree. There is a lot of uneasiness for Hawkeye fans following an improbable turn of events in the last 7 seconds of that game. There was one huge collective, "Whew!" from the Hawkeye faithful, that's for sure.

Well, it's kind of fun to think about anyway. Iowans, before you start your flaming, just note that I'm not saying this will happen, but that it could. I think after yesterday, any honest Hawkeye fan would have to admit that.

Oh, it could happen. That game exposed many areas that need improvement. I am not ready to throw in the towel quite yet. I'm going to wait until I see how Iowa plays against Iowa State on the road. Historically, it's been tough for the Hawks in Ames in the past. I think we'll know more after Saturday.