Interesting Graph for us Math Geeks

[HopHead]

I am not sure of the original source of this, but it was posted over on an Illinois football forum. I found it very interesting to see what teams do more with less and visa versa.

Here is how it works:

-Weighted recruiting class rankings on the horizontal axis (senior class ranking x 4 + juniors x 3 + sophomores x 2 + freshman x 1, combined, normalized, and ranked by team)

-Current Sagarin ranking on vertical axis.


-Above the red line indicates underperforming with regards to recruiting, below indicates overperforming

-Distance from red line indicates relative magnitude of under- or over-performance

Looking at where the Gophers fall, we are basically pretty close to where one would expect given the talent recruited in the last four years. As Gopher fans, we would all love it if they would over-achieve a little bit more but at least we aren't Illinois. Has a team ever done less with more than the Illini have done this year?

 

[gophermartin]

Very interesting....I like this a lot.

Also interesting is TX A&M. They are a puzzle to me.....awesome gameday env. But a couple brutal head coaches. I think they were hoping the current guy (former GB Packer HC)would be like Pete Carrol. Um...not exactly.

Do you have a link to this...will be interesting to follow the rest of the year.

Impressive the job the coach at GT has done after coming from Navy.

I watched Ill vs. Ind....I can't figure out that team. Same names as when they were good....but bad play. Somewhat like Weber at times this year....but they didn't change schemes or anything.

Go Gophers! Beat OSU.

GM
GM

 

[HopHead]

I wish I knew the original source but I don't. I first saw it here:

http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=169&f=2617&t=4962591

 

[Schnauzer]

Very interesting. I think the Gopher coaching staff has been learning on the job and the revolving door of coordinators hasn't helped at all. I think this is a good sign that some stability in the coordinators combined with Brewster continuing to improve makes the future look bright. It will be interesting to see if they can start making some progress toward moving to the right of that red line.

Given what I have read on the Gopher Hole over the last week, I am sure there are many people here that feel any coaching staff that appears even 1/1000th of an inch to the left of that line should be immediately fired... mid season.

Of course the whole graph is just a guess because we can often find things to disagree with in terms of Sag ratings and recruiting rankings. So, I take the whole thing with a grain of salt but it is interesting.

 

[Curseislifted33]

wow, great post very interesting. Is this a good or bad thing? I think a good coach can get the most out of guys, i.e underachieving according to this. So for all those who say Brewster is underachieving this graph could be used to go against that argument, but it could be used to show that he is still not a good 'coach' but hasn't failed like some say.
Very interesting again and I hope we can find a way to follow this throughout the years.

math geeks are awesome.

 

[LloydChristmas]

I just turned into the Or$asm guy (SNL skit) staring at this graph. I love math and any scientific spin on a sport with chaotic outcomes.

I may just stop posting on GH and just stare at this chart when my emotions do not equate to reality.

 

[Pewterschmidt]

Sorry but that is incredibly flawed...

It doesn't weigh JUCO players as they get lumped in with the freshman in their class while they're getting added into the rankings when they've long since left the program when that class becomes seniors...

Pittman, Lawrence, BPT, Wills, McKinley, Small, Carpenter, Sharpe, and Onwauchi should all be looped into the more heavily weighted junior and senior classes while Royston, Carufel, and Henderson aren't counted at all. That's 12 players on this Gopher team alone and 9 of them have started at least multiple games this year (almost half of the starting lineup). That means that 5 of our 11 4-star recruits are either being devalued or not counted at all while 5 of the other 7 were 3 star players, a higher percentage than the average player on the Gopher roster.

It also doesn't take into consideration attrition, which is a big factor. Who cares what the recruiting ranking of my senior class was 4 years ago if nearly half are no longer on the team...and to weight it x4? That seems quite flawed to me.

It doesn't take a genius to understand why USC is better than New Mexico St. What I want to understand is why are Boise St and TCU always good? Why do Texas A&M and Clemson always underachieve? What would be more telling is to look at this graph at how it changes each year over a 10 year period. You'd probably see the similar teams above and below the line which to me makes the line itself somewhat pointless because the idea of this exercise seem to say that perceived talent = success. There's another factor in play...and that's coaching and development.

 

[MaxyJR1]

Sorry but that is incredibly flawed...

What I want to understand is why are Boise St and TCU always good? Why do Texas A&M and Clemson always underachieve? QUOTE]

Because they have a niche of being in a conference where they win every year. They have built a tradition. Texas A&M and Clemson are like MN. Too many good teams to leapfrog to get to the top.

 

[Pewterschmidt]

That's fine and dandy but why are the Boise St's of the world beating top teams from other conferences when they're getting killed on the recruiting trail? Clemson always seems to haul in the recruits yet they never meet expectations. How does having to leapfrog VA Tech have anything to do with losing to crappy teams? I'm missing your point?

 

[Goldmember]

That's fine and dandy but why are the Boise St's of the world beating top teams from other conferences when they're getting killed on the recruiting trail? Clemson always seems to haul in the recruits yet they never meet expectations. How does having to leapfrog VA Tech have anything to do with losing to crappy teams? I'm missing your point?

It is easier to win when you only have to worry about one game/ year. And Boise and TCU don't generally "play up" all that much. TCU isn't plaing Texas. Boise isn't playing USC.

Besides, Butch Jones, Brian Kelly and Chris Petersen are probably regarded as the top 3 head coaches in college football without a BCS gig.

 

[Goldmember]

Clemson and Texas A&M get the highly-recruited guys that no one else in their region wants. Clemson gets the SEC East leftovers. Texas A&M get the Texas/Oklahoma/ SEC West leftovers. But they both play good teams most weeks.

 

[dpodoll68]

Besides, Butch Jones, Brian Kelly and Chris Petersen are probably regarded as the top 3 head coaches in college football without a BCS gig.

Last I checked, Brian Kelly already has a BCS gig. Unless Cincinnati was kicked out of the Big East and I wasn't informed.

Also, I think you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who doesn't value Gary Patterson and Kyle Whittingham more highly than Butch Jones among non-BCS coaches.

 

[GopherGod]

Clemson and Texas A&M get the highly-recruited guys that no one else in their region wants. Clemson gets the SEC East leftovers. Texas A&M get the Texas/Oklahoma/ SEC West leftovers. But they both play good teams most weeks.

Texas A&M's recruiting has been on a definite upward swing of late since Mike Sherman got there.

 

[KD6-3.7]

I am not sure of the original source of this, but it was posted over on an Illinois football forum.

wait, you go to the illinois scout forum and not the minnesota scout forum. cause this very chart was posted there yesterday.

 

[nc2mn]

That's fine and dandy but why are the Boise St's of the world beating top teams from other conferences when they're getting killed on the recruiting trail? Clemson always seems to haul in the recruits yet they never meet expectations. How does having to leapfrog VA Tech have anything to do with losing to crappy teams? I'm missing your point?

If they are outperforming their recruiting, it is because the players are being developed and coached better.....

I also think that once Brew has four years of recruits to be used on this chart (two more full years), the performance will improve as will the overall level of recruits - especially if the turnover in coaching settles down.

 

[HopHead]

wait, you go to the illinois scout forum and not the minnesota scout forum. cause this very chart was posted there yesterday.

Sorry. I get my Gopher fix here. I was just enjoying a moment of Schadenfreude over on the Illinois board.

 

[gopherdudepart2]

Some of the overachieving outliers are explainable

Texas Tech, South Florida, Houston, TCU these are programs that lie in talent laden areas where the big time programs cannot take everyone, that would somewhat explain why they have success way outside of the linear line in comparison to there recruiting rankings. They turnover talent in there home base recruiting areas that allows them to succeed outside of the normalized distribution for recruiting rankings and relative success.

How does one explain Utah, Boise State, Iowa, Navy the success at these programs pushed them far away from the normal distribution. Yes in the cases of Utah and Boise State you can say that they do not face the big game in conference or out of conference as often but they continue to have national success in both recruiting and in bowl games when they do match up head to head. Iowa and Navy are the real head scratchers, they seem to have great success outside of there home base recruiting areas, identify and coach up players that are maybe overlooked, from rural areas or have tremendous physical conditioning. There has to be something to there systems, coaching and talent evaluation levels that allows them to continue to have a favorable success in both recruiting and success on the football field. This isn't just anectdotal stuff, a program like Iowa is out-recruiting what should likely be there normalized success level. If we want to get to the level they are at, this is the program that the Gophers should model after and try to steal from. Build from there model with getting consistent talent from Texas and Florida, and then find those kids in the hinterlands and overlooked areas. I'm not an Iowa fan by any sense or standards, but, If I wanted to steal from someone for a success formula these would be the guy's I would be targeting from and trying to steal from as much as possible.

 

[gophermartin]

If they are outperforming their recruiting, it is because the players are being developed and coached better.....

I also think that once Brew has four years of recruits to be used on this chart (two more full years), the performance will improve as will the overall level of recruits - especially if the turnover in coaching settles down.

I hope you are right...and I agree.

The first year was a throw away. I will conceed that Brewster was learning some on the job and we have what we have now.

I do believe that the OL in particular will be better with better recruits and more time to coach them....our OL coach was at USC and was very good...don't think he became dumb overnight.

With Mason he took guys that were lessor talent and made them respectable. The current scheme doesn't look so good with those same players...I'm all for coaching them to be how they need to be to make the scheme successful which will mirror other other top 10 teams in the US. I'm for giving them time (which means a contract extension for Brewster...so he can continue to recruit at a high level). Changing more coaches doesn't help anything.

I want Brewster to be successful in the worst way because he embraces our tradition...and he wants to win the right way!

Go Brewster and Go Gophers!!

GM

 

[GopherGod]

I hope you are right...and I agree.

The first year was a throw away. I will conceed that Brewster was learning some on the job and we have what we have now.

I do believe that the OL in particular will be better with better recruits and more time to coach them....our OL coach was at USC and was very good...don't think he became dumb overnight.

With Mason he took guys that were lessor talent and made them respectable. The current scheme doesn't look so good with those same players...I'm all for coaching them to be how they need to be to make the scheme successful which will mirror other other top 10 teams in the US. I'm for giving them time (which means a contract extension for Brewster...so he can continue to recruit at a high level). Changing more coaches doesn't help anything.

I want Brewster to be successful in the worst way because he embraces our tradition...and he wants to win the right way!

Go Brewster and Go Gophers!!

GM

While I think he has done a good job at recruiting it appears that he is starting to fall farther down the rankings in relation to his Big 10 counterparts year after year. Add to the fact that those teams in front of Minnesota in recruiting are largely thought to have better coaching than us and that is worrisome. It is hard to win and move into the upper echelon of the Big 10 when there are 3-6 teams with better talent and coaching in front of you. Here is where Minnesota has ranked according to Rivals in relation to the rest of the Big 10. I purposely left off the 2007 class since he was not here for all of that recruiting period. I also included average stars per player because it accounts for the differences in class sizes.

2010 Team Rankings thus far--- 6th in Big Ten, 7th if going based on average stars per player behind Illinois.

2009 Team Rankings 6th, 4th by average stars

2008 team rankings 3rd, 3rd by average stars as well