coolhandgopher
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I'm sure that over the next two days, the beatdown that Carolina delivered in early December to Michigan State in this very same Ford Field will be referenced ad infinitum. While the 35 point win for the Tar Heels can be termed nothing else but impressive and overwhelming, it was not the same Michigan State team that they will face Monday night. It starts with the fact that Goran Suton did not play that game and will be present and formidable for the Spartans on Monday night. In addition, the Spartans have more seasoned freshman playing at this point in the season. In that game, Devlon Roe was held scoreless and in foul trouble most of the night; Draymond Green played six minutes and fouled out without attempting a shot; and Korie Lucious played 11 non-descript minutes. All three of those players have grown into their games and are currently playing with a lot of confidence. In addition, Kalin Lucas was in the midst of some early season struggles that he shook off and is no longer besieged with in his game.
So, now that we've established that the Spartans aren't the same team, do they have a shot in hell against the juggernaut which is the Tar Heels? Carolina's playing at an awfully high level and is exactly where everyone figured them to be at the beginning of the season. They have arguably the top point guard in the nation and the top backcourt in the nation, and they also feature last year's National POY. Their first guy off the bench is a freshman said to be their best pro prospect, on a roster dotted with future NBA players. Yeah, it's a formidable task for the Spartans.
Let's start in the backcourt. For my money, Ty Lawson's the best point guard in the nation and should be a future NBA star, now that he's developed a jump shot. He's strong, fast, and can hurt you shooting or delivering the basketball. His backcourt mate, Wayne Ellington, is playing at an extremely high level himself. I am curious how Izzo's going to match up with these guys on defense-does he assign Travis Walton, his best backcourt defender and one of the few guards who can match up with Lawson in the strength department, to UNC's point guard? Or does Lucas and his blinding quickness take on Lawson while Walton looks to shut down Ellington?
In the frontcourt, I like the Spartans chances here. If they held their own against Thabeet, Adrien, Robinson, and Edwards for UConn, I think they can do the same against Hansbrough, Thompson, Davis, and Zeller. In fact, I see Davis and Zeller having a tough time against the interior of Michigan State on Monday night-although they can out-length the Spartans, I think they haven't developed the requisite toughness yet to impact the Spartans. I like what Suton, Morgan, Gray, Green, and Ibok can throw at the frontline of UNC.
They'll have to make sure they account for Danny Green, who when he's rolling makes UNC also impossible to overcome. If Raymer Morgan can play like he did tonight, or close to it, I like this match up for the Spartans.
Off the bench, I really like what Michigan State can do. The tandem of Durrell Summers and Chris Allen can be incredibly explosive and the late season emergence of Draymond Green and Korie Lucious makes the Spartans ludicrously deep. Adding the post play and fouls of Marquis Gray and Ibok makes it eleven players at Izzo's service to offer quality minutes.
The biggest thing for Michigan State is not to get overwhelmed in the first ten minutes and then the first half of the game. UNC, particularly these last two games, has come out firing in the tournament and overwhelmed their opponents from the get go. And while Oklahoma and Villanova were unable to respond effectively, I think Michigan State is a different breed. For one, UNC's previous opponents couldn't offer the balance Michigan State does-either weak in the backcourt (Oklahoma) or the frontcourt (Villanova), UNC was able to exploit that. Michigan State has pretty good balance. The other thing I've noticed in watching UNC is the lack of truly salting away these opponents. Both Oklahoma and Villanova were outclassed and played horrible at times-yet, UNC didn't really pull away. The leads were never in doubt, but both second halves were exercises in sloppiness, and I think UNC can be in for some tense moments that they've yet to experience in the tournament if Michigan State can keep the score tight at halftime.
The last factor to look at is the head coaching match up. Call me a Big Ten sycophant, but I really like Izzo in the match up against Roy Boy. Izzo is masterful, there's no two ways about it, and we will get to see him (I assume) change strategy from Saturday (run at every opportunity) to Monday (control the ball, run the offense, milk the clock). Roy Williams has been criticized in the past for his X and O acumen; against most competition, it doesn't matter, but I don't think he matches wits well with Izzo.
My prediction? A tight game, but I like Michigan State's chances-provided they don't get overwhelmed in the beginning of the game and they have the halftime margin at least within 5-7 points of the Tar Heels. As we've seen in this tournament, MSU is a second half team and the Tar Heels have yet to be challenged in the second half of a game this tournament. I think that'll catch up with UNC, although they are pretty mentally tough (can't say enough good things about Lawson's game and how it's matured). I think it will be a great match up and potential classic. Don't listen to any idiots who say we'll see a repeat of the December game.
So, now that we've established that the Spartans aren't the same team, do they have a shot in hell against the juggernaut which is the Tar Heels? Carolina's playing at an awfully high level and is exactly where everyone figured them to be at the beginning of the season. They have arguably the top point guard in the nation and the top backcourt in the nation, and they also feature last year's National POY. Their first guy off the bench is a freshman said to be their best pro prospect, on a roster dotted with future NBA players. Yeah, it's a formidable task for the Spartans.
Let's start in the backcourt. For my money, Ty Lawson's the best point guard in the nation and should be a future NBA star, now that he's developed a jump shot. He's strong, fast, and can hurt you shooting or delivering the basketball. His backcourt mate, Wayne Ellington, is playing at an extremely high level himself. I am curious how Izzo's going to match up with these guys on defense-does he assign Travis Walton, his best backcourt defender and one of the few guards who can match up with Lawson in the strength department, to UNC's point guard? Or does Lucas and his blinding quickness take on Lawson while Walton looks to shut down Ellington?
In the frontcourt, I like the Spartans chances here. If they held their own against Thabeet, Adrien, Robinson, and Edwards for UConn, I think they can do the same against Hansbrough, Thompson, Davis, and Zeller. In fact, I see Davis and Zeller having a tough time against the interior of Michigan State on Monday night-although they can out-length the Spartans, I think they haven't developed the requisite toughness yet to impact the Spartans. I like what Suton, Morgan, Gray, Green, and Ibok can throw at the frontline of UNC.
They'll have to make sure they account for Danny Green, who when he's rolling makes UNC also impossible to overcome. If Raymer Morgan can play like he did tonight, or close to it, I like this match up for the Spartans.
Off the bench, I really like what Michigan State can do. The tandem of Durrell Summers and Chris Allen can be incredibly explosive and the late season emergence of Draymond Green and Korie Lucious makes the Spartans ludicrously deep. Adding the post play and fouls of Marquis Gray and Ibok makes it eleven players at Izzo's service to offer quality minutes.
The biggest thing for Michigan State is not to get overwhelmed in the first ten minutes and then the first half of the game. UNC, particularly these last two games, has come out firing in the tournament and overwhelmed their opponents from the get go. And while Oklahoma and Villanova were unable to respond effectively, I think Michigan State is a different breed. For one, UNC's previous opponents couldn't offer the balance Michigan State does-either weak in the backcourt (Oklahoma) or the frontcourt (Villanova), UNC was able to exploit that. Michigan State has pretty good balance. The other thing I've noticed in watching UNC is the lack of truly salting away these opponents. Both Oklahoma and Villanova were outclassed and played horrible at times-yet, UNC didn't really pull away. The leads were never in doubt, but both second halves were exercises in sloppiness, and I think UNC can be in for some tense moments that they've yet to experience in the tournament if Michigan State can keep the score tight at halftime.
The last factor to look at is the head coaching match up. Call me a Big Ten sycophant, but I really like Izzo in the match up against Roy Boy. Izzo is masterful, there's no two ways about it, and we will get to see him (I assume) change strategy from Saturday (run at every opportunity) to Monday (control the ball, run the offense, milk the clock). Roy Williams has been criticized in the past for his X and O acumen; against most competition, it doesn't matter, but I don't think he matches wits well with Izzo.
My prediction? A tight game, but I like Michigan State's chances-provided they don't get overwhelmed in the beginning of the game and they have the halftime margin at least within 5-7 points of the Tar Heels. As we've seen in this tournament, MSU is a second half team and the Tar Heels have yet to be challenged in the second half of a game this tournament. I think that'll catch up with UNC, although they are pretty mentally tough (can't say enough good things about Lawson's game and how it's matured). I think it will be a great match up and potential classic. Don't listen to any idiots who say we'll see a repeat of the December game.
