In three years (December 2015)

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gopherbadgerman

gopherbadgerman

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Kill will have completed 5 years. If he has won 40% of his B10 games, made a total of 3 bowl games, no B10 Championship Games, no Jan 1 bowl games, no winning B10 records, and compiled a .600 or so winning percentage including non-conference fodder, how do you think things will be perceived?

Good, bad, or middle ground?

I ask because that is about where Tubs is with the BB program, and there is little or no pressure to can him. Also I think rebuilding a football program is a lot tougher than a BB program, especially when you look where the two were.


Just wondering peoples thoughts on that...
 

While it is about winning, it's also about how competitive and close we are. It was painfully obvious at the end of this year that we can't physically match-up with teams like Nebraska and Michigan St. yet. I think if we are competing with those teams in 1-2 years, the trajectory is up, and we're winning 7-8 games a year, most people will be satisfied with the job Kill has done.
 

John Galt said:
While it is about winning, it's also about how competitive and close we are. It was painfully obvious at the end of this year that we can't physically match-up with teams like Nebraska and Michigan St. yet. I think if we are competing with those teams in 1-2 years, the trajectory is up, and we're winning 7-8 games a year, most people will be satisfied with the job Kill has done.
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I think that is a fair statement, and agree. If the gophs are finishing at 3-5 or 4-4 and playing good teams close, I would think most would be happy with that.
 

In 3 years if we are finishing .500 in the the big ten with signs of continued improvement, I think I would be satisfied.
 

afurry91 said:
In 3 years if we are finishing .500 in the the big ten with signs of continued improvement, I think I would be satisfied.
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That would put us into some solid J1 Bowl games. I think we would all take that.
 


gopherbadgerman said:
Kill will have completed 5 years. If he has won 40% of his B10 games, made a total of 3 bowl games, no B10 Championship Games, no Jan 1 bowl games, no winning B10 records, and compiled a .600 or so winning percentage including non-conference fodder, how do you think things will be perceived?

Good, bad, or middle ground?

I ask because that is about where Tubs is with the BB program, and there is little or no pressure to can him. Also I think rebuilding a football program is a lot tougher than a BB program, especially when you look where the two were.


Just wondering peoples thoughts on that...
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First off I think that had the basketball team struggled this year Tubby would have been canned. As it looks though he is going to be just fine unless what we are seeing right now is a complete mirage.

On the football front assuming a 40% Big Ten winning record that would mean with 8 games per year over 5 years Kill would get 16 wins (I know at some point 9 conference games probably comes into the picture but will go with 8 for now). Considering he is 4-12 to this point that would mean he would go 12-12 over the next 3 years. Under that scenario I think Kill would be just fine.

The main question there is can Kill get this team to that 40% threshold in terms of conference wins?
 



Kill could go 0-8 and 0-8 and if he is ranked 10 in year 5, he will be fine.
 



A lot of people were calling for Tubby's head last year prior to the NIT run. And even after that, people were still calling for his head. Obviously that has all changed now that they are #11 in the country, and there is a lot to cheer for with such a great squad. Why would you ever think he would be on the hot seat today? They have 1 loss, and are on their way to a top 5 B1G finish, and a possible run in the NCAAs.
 

DLguy said:
A lot of people were calling for Tubby's head last year prior to the NIT run. And even after that, people were still calling for his head. Obviously that has all changed now that they are #11 in the country, and there is a lot to cheer for with such a great squad. Why would you ever think he would be on the hot seat today? They have 1 loss, and are on their way to a top 5 B1G finish, and a possible run in the NCAAs.
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I know this is a football board not basketball but to add to what you said I think coming into this season Tubby's run at MN had been seen by most as middle of the road to bad to this point. There have been lots of built in excuses due to injuries to top players and what not but he has not had nearly the success most of us assumed he would when he took over. Clearly this year he is en route to changing all that in a big way if the current trend continues.

The bar is set pretty low for Kill he just needs to demonstrate continued upward mobility, if he does that he won't have anything to worry about. Of course if we are still winning 2 big ten games a year in years 4-5 well then we will have a new football coach.
 


DLguy said:
A lot of people were calling for Tubby's head last year prior to the NIT run. And even after that, people were still calling for his head. Obviously that has all changed now that they are #11 in the country, and there is a lot to cheer for with such a great squad. Why would you ever think he would be on the hot seat today? They have 1 loss, and are on their way to a top 5 B1G finish, and a possible run in the NCAAs.
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That is a lot of assumption for the BB team, considering they do not have a signature win and Tubby's history of melting down in one way, shape, or form during the B10 season. Regardless, I think his tenure here has been a failure to this point. But I regress, this is the FB Board, my main question was does Kill need to be as good as Tubby to keep his job?
 




I think the bar might be set a little higher for Kill. I know there is a tendency to judge the new coach against the record of the previous coach, but in Kill's case, I think the real measuring stick is Mason.

Let's face it - Brewster was perceived as a near-total failure (despite the fact he won 6+ games his 2nd and 3rd years and played in back-to-back bowl games.)

So, the real question for a lot of fans (and members of the media) is: can Kill match or exceed what Mason did.
And that's not going to be easy. for all the grumbling about Mason (and yes, I think he overstayed his welcome), he put competitive teams on the field, won some trophy games, had some nationally-ranked teams, won some bowl games, and produced some record-setting rushing attacks.

For Kill to be perceived as a success, I think he will have to show significant improvement next year- at least 3 conf wins - or the nay-sayers will rip him for not matching what Mason did. And down the road in year 4 or 5, there need to be some "signature" wins - trophy game victories - and they need to make (and hopefully win) a higher-tier bowl game.

I think the make-or-break factor for Kill will be the offense. The Gophs have to find a way to move the ball and score points. When Kill was hired, we kept hearing about the great offense he (and his coaches) ran at Northern Illinois. We need to see some of that on the field, and soon.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
I think that is a fair statement, and agree. If the gophs are finishing at 3-5 or 4-4 and playing good teams close, I would think most would be happy with that.
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People will not be happy with that. That would be exactly where we were with Mason and he got canned. I'm all in for Kill, but if he can't at least do what Mason did, he has to go. Mason, for all the faults people want to assign to him, put competitive teams on the field, won 10 games, won bowl games, won trophy games etc. No, he didn't win a Big 10 title, but I'd take his teams over what we have right now, today. Again, I'm all in with Kill and willing to give him a good 4 years, but some people are not going to be happy with 3-5 or 4-4 in the conference. If they were, Mason would still be on the sideline.
 

U2Gopher said:
People will not be happy with that. That would be exactly where we were with Mason and he got canned. I'm all in for Kill, but if he can't at least do what Mason did, he has to go. Mason, for all the faults people want to assign to him, put competitive teams on the field, won 10 games, won bowl games, won trophy games etc. No, he didn't win a Big 10 title, but I'd take his teams over what we have right now, today. Again, I'm all in with Kill and willing to give him a good 4 years, but some people are not going to be happy with 3-5 or 4-4 in the conference. If they were, Mason would still be on the sideline.
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But do you think if Mase had not lost the game to Tech he would still be around? Its a fine line. If three games in his whole career go different he would probably have a statue of himself outside the stadium. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Tech...
 

If we are a .500 Big 10 team most years, Kill should be seen as an absolute success (fluctuating between 3-5 and 5-3). However, that standard doesn't last forever.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
That is a lot of assumption for the BB team, considering they do not have a signature win and Tubby's history of melting down in one way, shape, or form during the B10 season. Regardless, I think his tenure here has been a failure to this point. But I regress, this is the FB Board, my main question was does Kill need to be as good as Tubby to keep his job?
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I am not assuming anything. They are voted by people who actually know as the #11 team in the country. Memphis was ranked #19 when we beat them. Beat a pretty good Stanford team. And crushed FSU on the road. And our only loss was to DUKE. And if you watched that game, you would know that we could have won that game if it weren't for a number of rediculous hail mary shots that went in for Duke.
 

If he is any where near .500 in the B1G I think he will be in great shape with the AD and Prez and most of the fans. We should be 4-0 to start the season next year and our conference slate might yield 4 wins next year. We're improving. It's easy to criticize from lofty heights.
 

U2Gopher said:
People will not be happy with that. That would be exactly where we were with Mason and he got canned. I'm all in for Kill, but if he can't at least do what Mason did, he has to go. Mason, for all the faults people want to assign to him, put competitive teams on the field, won 10 games, won bowl games, won trophy games etc. No, he didn't win a Big 10 title, but I'd take his teams over what we have right now, today. Again, I'm all in with Kill and willing to give him a good 4 years, but some people are not going to be happy with 3-5 or 4-4 in the conference. If they were, Mason would still be on the sideline.
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The OP asked what most fans would be content with by 2015. If we can win 3-4 Big Ten games each year, and that's the new baseline, most fans will be satisfied. After 2015, fans would want to see the occasional 5, 6, or even 7 win Big Ten season. I think that's the scenario most realistic fans are hoping for. The problem with Mason was expectations. His first 5 years were better than his last 5.
 

Fine line between trolling and thought provoking.

I'm still not in the group that thinks Tubby has been a failure to this point. I am disappointed with some of the personnel issues like Royce, Mbakwe, Smokin Devoe and Colt...but the injury bug that has hit this team over the last few years would have hobbled most rebuilding teams in major conferences...they were just heightened by the transfers and loses.

I think Kill needs to stand firm next year (3-1, 2-6) against a much tougher schedule and then get to at least 8 wins and .500 in B1G in 2014 to show the improvement necessary for an extension. If he does get to that level in 2014, I could see the U giving him a 5 year extension all but guaranteeing he will retire a Golden Gopher and hopefully develop his replacement.
 

Hard to look as far ahead as 2015, but....

I would be absolutely shocked if the Gophers don't win 8, maybe even 9 games in 2013 and/or 2014. The 2014 version of the Gophers will sport the best and most experienced Offensive Line that has taken the field since the high point of the Mason days. I think in 2014 this team scores 30+ points per game and the defense will be good enough to win more than they lose.

The 2013 and 2014 teams will have an ENORMOUS amount of players that will be 3rd and even 4th year starters. That's a good foundation to build on. The pain and frustration of playing so many FR and Soph in 2011 and 2012 will start to pay off next year.
 

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