I'm sticking with 5-7 or 6-6

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Iceland12 said:
Pretty confident that the Coaching Staff will adapt and improve on last night's performance.

Also think that if they won last night by 60 points, the people predicting a lousy season would stay with that.

They gotta thank Fleck and Company for making it easier for them to do it. ;)
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Very few posters in GopherHole are predicting a lousy season for the Gophers (less than 6 wins). I believe the majority think the team will win 6-7 games and play in a bowl game which would be a successful season given the Gopher's relative youth, inexperienced OL, and lack of a proven QB. I don't think anyone who says the Gophers will win 8 or more games would bet more than a nominal amount of money on it. We all know why the usual suspects keep beating that drum. Their motives couldn't be more transparent.
 

Cruze said:
Very few posters in GopherHole are predicting a lousy season for the Gophers (less than 6 wins). I believe the majority think the team will win 6-7 games and play in a bowl game which would be a successful season given the Gophers relatively young team and their new coaching staff and inexperienced QB's. I don't think anyone in GopherHole who thinks the Gophers will win 8 or more games would bet more than a nominal amount of money on it. We all know why the usual suspects keep beating that drum. Their motives couldn't be more transparent.
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6 wins is not a winning season, though can see how you'd want to throw it in with 7 wins. As long as you brought it up 18% (280 votes) think they'll win 9 regular season wins or more.

That is very optimistic. That hadn't been done in 14 years and a long time before that.

7 or 8 wins, would be 50% (783) of the people voting. That would be the same as 3 of the last 4 seasons.

5 wins or less? 19%. 1% point more than those who think they will improve on last season's record.

Not sure exactly why, but as you said " We all know why the usual suspects keep beating that drum. Their motives couldn't be more transparent.

What will the Gophers regular season record be in Fleck's first year?

12-0 - 4%

11-1 - 0%

10-2 - 3%

9-3 - 11%

8-4 - 25%

7-5 - 25%

6-6 - 12%

5-7 - 16%

Less than 5 wins - 3%

Total Votes: 1566
 
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Face The Facts said:
Which ones had starting QB's returning?
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So just for fun.....between 2015 and 2016 there were 27 coaching changes in D1/FBS.

Of those, 14 of the teams had a returning QB, and 13 did not*

The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year was +.26 wins.
The MEDIAN of the difference in wins was 0

SO, on average, there was little to no impact when changing coaches regardless of record.

Returning QB
The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year with a returning starter at QB was -.07 Wins.
The MEDIAN difference in wins from year to year with a returning starter at QB was -.5 Wins.

No Returning QB
The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year without a returning starter at QB was +.62 Wins.
The MEDIAN difference in wins from year to year without a returning starter at QB was 0 Wins.

The teams that changed coaches were a mix of teams. If I subjectively split them into two groups: The Helmet Schools and the Non-Helmet Schools we get the following

The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was +1 Wins.
The MEDIAN difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was +1.5 Wins.
The Min difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was -2 (Georgia, returning QB)
The Max difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was +3 (Va Tech, returning QB)

The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year for a non-helmet school was +.13 Wins.
The MEDIAN difference in wins from year to year without a non-helmet school was 0 Wins.
The Min difference in wins from year to year for a non-helmet school was -6 (Bowling Green, returning QB)
The Max difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was +6 (UCF, returning QB)

So those are the numbers, fit them into your narrative as best you will.


*To be clear, if the starter from 2015 was still on the roster but did not take the majority of the snaps, I still counted them as having the same QB on the team. I did not check to see how many of those were due to injury, although I know BYU was an injury situation.
 

caliGopher said:
So just for fun.....between 2015 and 2016 there were 27 coaching changes in D1/FBS.

Of those, 14 of the teams had a returning QB, and 13 did not*

The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year was +.26 wins.
The MEDIAN of the difference in wins was 0

SO, on average, there was little to no impact when changing coaches regardless of record.

Returning QB
The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year with a returning starter at QB was -.07 Wins.
The MEDIAN difference in wins from year to year with a returning starter at QB was -.5 Wins.

No Returning QB
The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year without a returning starter at QB was +.62 Wins.
The MEDIAN difference in wins from year to year without a returning starter at QB was 0 Wins.

The teams that changed coaches were a mix of teams. If I subjectively split them into two groups: The Helmet Schools and the Non-Helmet Schools we get the following

The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was +1 Wins.
The MEDIAN difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was +1.5 Wins.
The Min difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was -2 (Georgia, returning QB)
The Max difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was +3 (Va Tech, returning QB)

The AVERAGE difference in wins from year to year for a non-helmet school was +.13 Wins.
The MEDIAN difference in wins from year to year without a non-helmet school was 0 Wins.
The Min difference in wins from year to year for a non-helmet school was -6 (Bowling Green, returning QB)
The Max difference in wins from year to year for a helmet school was +6 (UCF, returning QB)

So those are the numbers, fit them into your narrative as best you will.


*To be clear, if the starter from 2015 was still on the roster but did not take the majority of the snaps, I still counted them as having the same QB on the team. I did not check to see how many of those were due to injury, although I know BYU was an injury situation.
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Thanks for the research but that's a small sample size.
Doesn't include any of the head coaching changes at the U previously, or similar programs like North Carolina.
In fact, your sample size is so skewed, it's probably skewed mainly because of the increase for Harbaugh at Michigan which most would consider to not be an average program.
 

Face The Facts said:
Thanks for the research but that's a small sample size.
Doesn't include any of the head coaching changes at the U previously, or similar programs like North Carolina.
In fact, your sample size is so skewed, it's probably skewed mainly because of the increase for Harbaugh at Michigan which most would consider to not be an average program.
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He could've done the research for the entire history of college football and you wouldn't have accepted the results because it would preclude you from continuing to troll.
 


Face The Facts said:
Thanks for the research but that's a small sample size.
Doesn't include any of the head coaching changes at the U previously, or similar programs like North Carolina.
In fact, your sample size is so skewed, it's probably skewed mainly because of the increase for Harbaugh at Michigan which most would consider to not be an average program.
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Except Michigan wasn't a part of it. It was simply the most recent complete data.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Ok. Great!

We'll be +0.62 wins better this year?
 

Face The Facts said:
Ok. Great!

We'll be +0.62 wins better this year?
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No.

There was no agenda, simply some data points. The swing was 12 games min -6, max +6. To take the facts from one year and try to make more out of it than it is asinine.

If anything, your earlier assertions that coaches taking over programs always struggle is not supported by this data. I looked at a single data set because I was curious to see what it really looked like.

You can take that curiosity and sharing if data any way you want.

If I was paid to conduct research I might look at this over multiple years, but I'm not so I won't.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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Iceland12 said:
Take a look at last years predictions and then take a look at this years. Looks like a number of people think that Fleck and Company, now with their 2nd recruiting class on campus, will have no effect on their win total from 2017.

Haters? Sure,some of them at least.

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/bo...w-many-wins-this-season-(excluding-bowl-game)

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/bo...dictions-amp-Preview-(Record-Wins-5-Losses-7)
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Yeah, people make crazy predictions....big deal. I went and looked at old posts and most fans thought Leidner and Roderick Williams were going to be great in 2015. Oops
 

Hockeytown said:
Yeah, people make crazy predictions....big deal. I went and looked at old posts and most fans thought Leidner and Roderick Williams were going to be great in 2015. Oops
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Thought most of those were crazy huh? Didn't seem that crazy to me.

As for those Leidner and Williams posts how about some links please.
 

Iceland12 said:
Take a look at last years predictions and then take a look at this years. Looks like a number of people think that Fleck and Company, now with their 2nd recruiting class on campus, will have no effect on their win total from 2017.

Haters? Sure,some of them at least.

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/bo...w-many-wins-this-season-(excluding-bowl-game)

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/bo...dictions-amp-Preview-(Record-Wins-5-Losses-7)
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The coaching staff has to do something with the talent, too. The majority of the press has the Gophers having a similar season to last year. PJ Fleck himself says wins don't matter and he expects this to be a tough year, but if someone on this board says I don't think they'll be good this year, they're haters? Does that make PJ Fleck a Fleck Hater? Just curious.

I expected more of the team last year because I expecting the coaching staff to make the most out of the talent they had. I now have lower expectation of the coaching staff - particularly the defense - and after watching Fleck get out coached in nearly every game last year, I don't believe they will be substantively better this year vs. last year. If that makes me a hater, so be it.
 

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