Illini Perspective on Big Ten Divisions

Iceland12

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I'll put the whole article in here this time to limit *$*&^$^$ reponses.

IlliniHQ.com

Tate: Timing is everything, Commissioner
Sunday July 18, 2010
Column ideas? E-mail Loren at [email protected]

CHAMPAIGN – An analysis of Michigan's Wolverines as an ongoing football power could determine the Big Ten's divisional alignment when Commissioner Jim Delany and conference athletic directors hammer out future schedules early next month.

Why Michigan?

Because it isn't clear where the once-proud but recently troubled Wolverines fit in the Big Ten pecking order. It is anyone's guess which direction the Wolverines are headed.

Michigan was a dominant, national-recruiting force from the day Bo Schembechler took over in 1969 ... earning 21 Big Ten championships between 1969 and 2004, and the national title in 1997 ... and maintaining a punishing presence until the shocking season-opening losses to Appalachian State (34-32) and Oregon (39-7) in 2007.

The Wolverines recovered significantly that season, coming up 9-4. However, continued failures against arch-rival Ohio State cost Lloyd Carr his job and brought an end to the "Schembechler era." In two seasons under Rich Rodriguez, the Wolverines have received NCAA sanctions while dropping 13 of 16 Big Ten games, including two against an Illinois team that had beaten Michigan four times in the previous 47 years. Rodriguez is very much on the hot seat as he enters a third campaign that could be his last there.

So, when Delany and the directors sit down in two weeks, how do they rate Michigan? Where do the Wolverines fit in the new 12-team lineup that will require adjustments in a 2011 schedule that was previously announced (Illinois and Ohio State didn't meet in the original).

Ron Guenther, Illini athletic director, said recently that parity between the two six-team divisions is critical in setting up a lucrative playoff game, and that 10-year records will be taken into consideration.

Six conference members are significantly ahead in the 10-year audit. They are Ohio State (102 wins), Wisconsin (86), Nebraska (84), Michigan (81), Iowa (80) and Penn State (78). Clearly, those six should be divided equally. And it would make sense to split them along geographical and, in this case, time zone lines. That throws OSU, PSU and Michigan in the East, and Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin in the West.

Perfect! And it follows suit that Purdue (68), Michigan State (65) and Indiana (39) fall in the East, with Minnesota (62), Northwestern (61) and Illinois (45) in the West.

But there is a fallacy in basing the decision on total wins. Some teams played tougher schedules than others. So let's review it on conference games only. And there we find Ohio State (64), Michigan (53), Iowa (49), Nebraska (47 in the Big 12), Penn State (45) and Wisconsin (44, with a 31-17 Big Ten record in the last six years).

Some will say that "time zone" divisions would be unbalanced in favor of the East.

To which I say, it'll never be perfect, and no one can predict how it will develop in the future. Who could have predicted that Iowa would go 7-1 vs. Penn State during the past decade? Who could have predicted that, with all those down years, Illinois would roll out an undisputed Big Ten champion in 2001 and defeat No. 1-ranked OSU to reach the Rose Bowl in 2007?

Look at the Big 12. When the UI's Kent Brown was publicist for Kansas State in the late 1990s, the power was in the North with K-State, Nebraska and Colorado. Texas was in the process of ousting coach John Mackovic. Oklahoma hadn't hired Bob Stoops yet. A decade later, the balance of power had dramatically shifted. Texas grew so strong that the Longhorns could call the shots, and it took some mighty negotiating by people emphasizing the best interests of the sport – conference commissioners, ADs and business and network executives – to hold the league together without Nebraska and Colorado.

Point is, there is always change. And that brings us back to Michigan.

The same football-heavy brand that brought Nebraska into the Big Ten – the Cornhuskers have more wins in the last 50 years than any program – is still there. Michigan's helmets are still the most distinctive in the game. A $226 million renovation allows the Big House to seat 109,901, and 61 of 81 new suits have been purchased.

But the Wolverines don't have the recruiting impact in Florida that they once did. Nor is it likely they'll beat the Buckeyes on top recruits in Ohio. Detroit is depressed to the point of free-fall, with sections of the community being virtually abandoned and bulldozed. Newspapers in Ann Arbor and Detroit lost subscriptions and advertising to the point where publications were limited. There are all kinds of indications that Wisconsin's Badgers, located in a still-vibrant capital city and coming off a 10-3 season, is better situated football-wise.

That's why I strongly support the "time zone" divisions. You can argue that the OSU, Michigan and Penn State brands are stronger, and I'll argue that Iowa is 7-1 vs. Penn State, that Wisconsin has won at least nine games in five of the last six years, and that Nebraska has bounced back with 19 wins in the last two years.

Keep it simple, Jim. Don't confuse the public by crossing geographical lines. Sure, you can cite Mixmaster examples in pro baseball and football where geography has been overlooked, and I say, "Don't do it." Keep Purdue and Indiana together. Don't split OSU and Michigan. Give geography a chance.
 

That would be great for minny. I don't think Wiscy or Iowa will be as perennial as this guy thinks. But I guess the rules of the game that created the Michigan, PSU and OSU dynasties are largely gone now, so maybe things will change. I'm not sure it really matters in the long run.
 


That would be great for minny. I don't think Wiscy or Iowa will be as perennial as this guy thinks. But I guess the rules of the game that created the Michigan, PSU and OSU dynasties are largely gone now, so maybe things will change. I'm not sure it really matters in the long run.

Interesting points on Michigan's place in the conference. Hard to say what Detroit's crumbling does to Michigan's future, also amazing that for all the squabbling we do around here over Brew's record and place, Michigan has been far, far worse in it's first 2 years of the new coaching regime, AND they have been officially cited for NCAA violations.
Could it be possible that Michigan is going to fade going forward? Nebraska had a hard time adjusting when it started to lose under Callahan, but regained form under Pelini.
I dunno, geographical divisions make too much sense to everyone, which means it probably won't happen. I'm hoping though.
 

I honestly think that whatever they decide won't last too long anyway. I give Notre Dame 5 to 10 years maximum before they are more-or-less forced to join a conference (obviously the BigTen).

The point is... they should probably not try anything too drastic and elaborate with the divisions. By then hopefully we will see whether or not the East-West divide is unworkable, and we will have some precedent with gauging the interest in various championship matchups. Let's try the obvious solution first, then work from there.

(Otherwise... trading Penn St. for Illinois does make a lot of sense to me, but that is the only other acceptable option, IMO.)
 


Interesting points on Michigan's place in the conference. Hard to say what Detroit's crumbling does to Michigan's future, also amazing that for all the squabbling we do around here over Brew's record and place, Michigan has been far, far worse in it's first 2 years of the new coaching regime, AND they have been officially cited for NCAA violations.

Could it be possible that Michigan is going to fade going forward? Nebraska had a hard time adjusting when it started to lose under Callahan, but regained form under Pelini.

I dunno, geographical divisions make too much sense to everyone, which means it probably won't happen. I'm hoping though.

I've thought about the whole "decline of Detroit" thing for a while. Conservative estimates are saying a probable 1,000,000 drop in the SMSA (Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area) population of 2010 Detroit, of which Ann Arbor is considered a part of. That drops them from the 8th largest to likely the 13th or 14th largest SMSA areas. That has to make a huge impact on all life in the state of Michigan. Time will tell. The only thing that may save them is Robocop.
 

Give geography a chance. If they must, fix it later.

Exactly. Once you smash-up all the natural rivalries linked to geography there's no putting them back together again.

But if East/Central doesn't work, you can always realign at a later date.
 


Someone on here once pointed out that Gopher Football and Maple Leafs fans suffer similar futility in a similar time frame.
Down Goes Brown blog site- the moderator goes season by season for the Leafs and points out highs and lows. Hilarious!
 



Someone on here once pointed out that Gopher Football and Maple Leafs fans suffer similar futility in a similar time frame.

I gotta take credit for that one. Wouldn't put up with someone comparing my Gophers to the Cubs, so I suggested the poor Leafs instead.
 

When the Red Sox won the World Series, they became just another team. I'm sure it was a price that no Red Sox fan minded paying, but some of the mystique just wasn't there. If the Cubs ever win it, there would be a real crisis! We're not so far removed from a championship that a Big Ten championship would take away some "loveable loser" mystique.

But there is something about baseball that allows the "loveable loser" concept to exist, that you don't find in any other sport. Few think the Clippers are loveable losers, few think that the Detroit Lions are lovable losers. Maybe it's that baseball is really just a day out in the park that just happens to have a baseball game.
 

When the Red Sox won the World Series, they became just another team. I'm sure it was a price that no Red Sox fan minded paying, but some of the mystique just wasn't there. If the Cubs ever win it, there would be a real crisis! We're not so far removed from a championship that a Big Ten championship would take away some "loveable loser" mystique.

But there is something about baseball that allows the "loveable loser" concept to exist, that you don't find in any other sport. Few think the Clippers are loveable losers, few think that the Detroit Lions are lovable losers. Maybe it's that baseball is really just a day out in the park that just happens to have a baseball game.

They were lovable b/c they weren't horrible all the time. There were years when they were good or great but managed to lose in heart wrenching fashion. Throw in ridiculously long championship droughts and some "curse" storylines and you have lovable losers. The Lions and Clippers (or any Cleveland team for that matter) don't really fit in that mold. Or maybe they just don't capture the attention of the national media in the same way.
 

I think there is something fundamentally different about baseball. As George Carlin put it, baseball is patoral. Football is technological. Football is more like the Roman Colosseum reined in.
 






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