If this team gets to seven wins...

[mplsbadger]

how good might the bowl assignment be? This is not a thread to debate the likelihood of getting to seven wins. I'm interested in the opinions of those who really know this stuff.

- Finding the seven most likely wins on the schedule,
- Taking into consideration the likely order of finish with tiebreakers
- Taking into account that the Gopher fan base is bowl hungry
- Considering that bowls don't like to bring the same team back year over year
- Considering that OSU and PSU are ineligible

What are the high and low bowl placements for a seven win Gopher team.

 

[highwayman]

Too many unknowns. Bring it back up in October.

 

[MGGopher]

Sounds like fun to me! As you stated, this is simply ASSUMING they'll get to 7 wins and not debating that fact. In that case, I think the 7 most likely wins are: 4 OOC games plus NW, Purdue, and Illinois. So let's assume that's how they get to 7 wins. Division standings don't matter once it comes to bowl selection time, so let's say the final BT standings shake out like this for the purposes of bowl selection (and no, I haven't broken down schedules or anything to make these predictions...just hypotheticals):

1) Michigan (8-0)-->BCS (automatic)
2) Wisconsin (7-1)-->BCS (at-large)
3) MSU (6-2)-->Capital One
4) Nebraska (5-3)-->Outback
5) Iowa (4-4)-->Gator
6) Minnesota (3-5)-->Insight
7) Purdue (3-5)-->Meineke
-----------------
NOT BOWL ELIGIBLE:
8) OSU (6-2)
9) PSU (3-5)
10) Northwestern (2-6)
11) Illinois (1-7)
12) Indiana (0-8)

It's sad, but that's honestly the BEST case scenario I see for this team. It assumes an at-large BCS berth for the BT (almost a given these days, but who knows sans OSU and PSU). It also assumes we'd be picked ahead of a Purdue based on our head-to-head win, but as we know all too well, that doesn't guarantee anything in the BT. Even if we somehow get to 8 wins (beat an Iowa or something), you'd almost have to assume Iowa would be picked ahead of us if we finished close in the BT standings (4-4, for example). So yes, sadly, even with two BT teams being ineligible, I think a 7 win Minnesota team would likely be bound for Phoenix. I'd love to hear thoughts from others...

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Sounds like fun to me! As you stated, this is simply ASSUMING they'll get to 7 wins and not debating that fact. In that case, I think the 7 most likely wins are: 4 OOC games plus NW, Purdue, and Illinois. So let's assume that's how they get to 7 wins. Division standings don't matter once it comes to bowl selection time, so let's say the final BT standings shake out like this for the purposes of bowl selection (and no, I haven't broken down schedules or anything to make these predictions...just hypotheticals):

1) Michigan (8-0)-->BCS (automatic)
2) Wisconsin (7-1)-->BCS (at-large)
3) MSU (6-2)-->Capital One
4) Nebraska (5-3)-->Outback
5) Iowa (4-4)-->Gator
6) Minnesota (3-5)-->Insight
7) Purdue (3-5)-->Meineke
-----------------
NOT BOWL ELIGIBLE:
8) OSU (6-2)
9) PSU (3-5)
10) Northwestern (2-6)
11) Illinois (1-7)
12) Indiana (0-8)

It's sad, but that's honestly the BEST case scenario I see for this team. It assumes an at-large BCS berth for the BT (almost a given these days, but who knows sans OSU and PSU). It also assumes we'd be picked ahead of a Purdue based on our head-to-head win, but as we know all too well, that doesn't guarantee anything in the BT. Even if we somehow get to 8 wins (beat an Iowa or something), you'd almost have to assume Iowa would be picked ahead of us if we finished close in the BT standings (4-4, for example). So yes, sadly, even with two BT teams being ineligible, I think a 7 win Minnesota team would likely be bound for Phoenix. I'd love to hear thoughts from others...

I think this sounds about right, it could even be the Meineke for us. I'm not certain a bowl would choose us over Purdue. However, I also think there is a pretty good chance that the team that loses the BTC won't get an at-large BCS bid. Michigan State had a pretty good season last year, they had two losses going into the BTC and they went to the Outback.

It's certainly possible that the team that loses the BTC could end up as an at-large bid, but I think it's more likely that team goes to the Outback Bowl. Don't get me wrong, a 1 or 2 loss Michigan, Neb or WI team would likely end up getting a BCS.

 

[mplsbadger]

Sounds like fun to me! As you stated, this is simply ASSUMING they'll get to 7 wins and not debating that fact. In that case, I think the 7 most likely wins are: 4 OOC games plus NW, Purdue, and Illinois. So let's assume that's how they get to 7 wins. Division standings don't matter once it comes to bowl selection time, so let's say the final BT standings shake out like this for the purposes of bowl selection (and no, I haven't broken down schedules or anything to make these predictions...just hypotheticals):

1) Michigan (8-0)-->BCS (automatic)
2) Wisconsin (7-1)-->BCS (at-large)
3) MSU (6-2)-->Capital One
4) Nebraska (5-3)-->Outback
5) Iowa (4-4)-->Gator
6) Minnesota (3-5)-->Insight
7) Purdue (3-5)-->Meineke
-----------------
NOT BOWL ELIGIBLE:
8) OSU (6-2)
9) PSU (3-5)
10) Northwestern (2-6)
11) Illinois (1-7)
12) Indiana (0-8)

It's sad, but that's honestly the BEST case scenario I see for this team. It assumes an at-large BCS berth for the BT (almost a given these days, but who knows sans OSU and PSU). It also assumes we'd be picked ahead of a Purdue based on our head-to-head win, but as we know all too well, that doesn't guarantee anything in the BT. Even if we somehow get to 8 wins (beat an Iowa or something), you'd almost have to assume Iowa would be picked ahead of us if we finished close in the BT standings (4-4, for example). So yes, sadly, even with two BT teams being ineligible, I think a 7 win Minnesota team would likely be bound for Phoenix. I'd love to hear thoughts from others...

Interesting. Win all 4 NC and beat Iowa and the season gets really exciting...

I wish the revised B10 didn't give the Gophers such a tough draw every year.

 

[Sumtimegophs]

This is an interesting discussion, but the Gophers probably won't have to get to 7 wins to make a bowl.

During the last three years, there have been only 71, 72, and 72 bowl eligible teams for the 70 spots, cutting it very close as Stewart Mandel of SI has recently pointed out. The NCAA is unlikely going to let a bowl go dark, so there are those who are proactively working to allow a 5-7 team to go bowling, especially if it is a hungry one.

I'm not saying that the Gophers won't go 7-5 this year, I'm just saying...

 

[Kratos3]

Low end--Little Caesar's
High end--Meineke

 

[Go4Gold]

This is an interesting discussion, but the Gophers probably won't have to get to 7 wins to make a bowl.

During the last three years, there have been only 71, 72, and 72 bowl eligible teams for the 70 spots, cutting it very close as Stewart Mandel of SI has recently pointed out. The NCAA is unlikely going to let a bowl go dark, so there are those who are proactively working to allow a 5-7 team to go bowling, especially if it is a hungry one.

I'm not saying that the Gophers won't go 7-5 this year, I'm just saying...

I remember hearing something on ESPN a few days that they are working on allowing a 5-7 team in good academic standing to be bowl eligible. Anybody else know more about this?

 

[CP Gopher]

I remember hearing something on ESPN a few days that they are working on allowing a 5-7 team in good academic standing to be bowl eligible. Anybody else know more about this?

I'm guessing ESPN's goal is to get everyone in a bowl game.

 

[MaroonGopher]

Have you seen the transfer lift from Penn State? That team is worse than the Gophers.

 

[Killjoy]

Have you seen the transfer lift from Penn State? That team is worse than the Gophers.

Course it is! The only players that have left the Gophers since Kill has arrived are probably the ones that realized that they were not going to get much playing time. Since that is the case I will assume that your remark is based on sarcasm.