If Big Ten Tournament was held today. ...

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Updated through Feb. 20:

Weakling Wednesday (March 13)
#12 Maryland (6-10) vs. #13 Ohio State (5-10)
#11 Penn State (6-9) vs. #14 Michigan (3-12)

2nd Round (March 14)
#8 GOPHERS (7-7) vs. #9 Rutgers (6-8)
#5 Michigan State (9-7) vs. Maryland/Ohio State winner
#7 Iowa (8-8) vs. #10 Indiana (6-8)
#6 Nebraska (8-7) vs. Penn State/Michigan winner

Quarterfinals (March 15)
#1 Purdue (12-3) vs. GOPHERS/Rutgers winner
#4 Northwestern (9-6) vs. Michigan State/Maryland/Ohio State winner
#2 Illinois (10-4) vs. Iowa/Indiana winner
#3 Wisconsin (10-6) vs. Nebraska/Penn State/Michigan winner
 
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SelectionSunday said:
Updated through Feb. 20:

Weakling Wednesday (March 13)
#12 Maryland (6-10) vs. #13 Ohio State (5-10)
#11 Penn State (6-9) vs. #14 Michigan (3-12)

2nd Round (March 14)
#8 GOPHERS (7-7) vs. #9 Rutgers (6-8)
#5 Michigan State (9-7) vs. Maryland/Ohio State winner
#7 Iowa (8-8) vs. #10 Indiana (6-8)
#6 Nebraska (8-7) vs. Penn State/Michigan winner

Quarterfinals (March 15)
#1 Purdue (12-3) vs. GOPHERS/Rutgers winner
#4 Northwestern (9-6) vs. Michigan State/Maryland/Ohio State winner
#2 Illinois (10-4) vs. Iowa/Indiana winner
#3 Wisconsin (10-6) vs. Nebraska/Penn State/Michigan winner
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Feels like we'll be destined to finish 8th unless we can steal one on the road. Maybe can get 7th, but iowa having the tie-breaker hurts.
 

Gophers7633 said:
Feels like we'll be destined to finish 8th unless we can steal one on the road. Maybe can get 7th, but iowa having the tie-breaker hurts.
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I know the Gophers gave Purdue all they could handle, but I'd still prefer to avoid the Boilers as long as possible. Give me the opposite side of the bracket as the 6, 7, or 10 seed. It's not really going to matter who the Gophers play the first game. ... everyone in the middle is so bunched up and similar. A dog fight whoever it is.

Of course, this assumes Boilers hang on to the #1 seed.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
I know the Gophers gave Purdue all they could handle, but I'd still prefer to avoid the Boilers as long as possible. Give me the opposite side of the bracket as the 6, 7, or 10 seed. It's not really going to matter who the Gophers play the first game. ... everyone is so bunched up and similar. A dog fight whoever it is.

Of course, this assumes Boilers hang on to the #1 seed.
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Yeah, I'd like to avoid them as long as possible too. Outside of them, I think we're capable of beating anybody in the conference on any given day.
 


SelectionSunday said:
I know the Gophers gave Purdue all they could handle, but I'd still prefer to avoid the Boilers as long as possible. Give me the opposite side of the bracket as the 6, 7, or 10 seed. It's not really going to matter who the Gophers play the first game. ... everyone in the middle is so bunched up and similar. A dog fight whoever it is.

Of course, this assumes Boilers hang on to the #1 seed.
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Agreed.
 


Holy Man said:
Iowa has four games left with two of them against Illinois. I don’t think them finishing ahead of us is a foregone conclusion at all.
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It's going to take better than 3-3 IMO. I'm guessing Iowa will finish 2-2 at worst.
 

Looking at remaining schedules. We likely need to go 4-1 to make it out of the 8/9 seed based on tiebreakers. Such a cluster.

My guess is: We need a road win and not end in a tie with Iowa to get the 7 seed.

1. Purdue
2. Nebraska
3-6. Illinois, Northwestern, MSU, WI
7. Iowa
8. MN
9. PSU
10. Rutgers
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. tOSU
14. Michigan
 



MaxyJR1 said:
Looking at remaining schedules. We likely need to go 4-1 to make it out of the 8/9 seed based on tiebreakers. Such a cluster.

My guess is: We need a road win and not end in a tie with Iowa to get the 7 seed.

1. Purdue
2. Nebraska
3-6. Illinois, Northwestern, MSU, WI
7. Iowa
8. MN
9. PSU
10. Rutgers
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. tOSU
14. Michigan
Click to expand...
Down to the last week now. My updated guess

1. Purdue
2. Illinois
3. Northwestern
4. Nebraska
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. MSU
8. MN
9. Penn State
10. Indiana
11. tOSU
12. Maryland
13. Rutgers
14. Michigan

Gotta find a way to go 2-0 and avoid the 8/9 game.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Down to the last week now. My updated guess

1. Purdue
2. Illinois
3. Northwestern
4. Nebraska
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. MSU
8. MN
9. Penn State
10. Indiana
11. tOSU
12. Maryland
13. Rutgers
14. Michigan

Gotta find a way to go 2-0 and avoid the 8/9 game.
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I agree, 7 would be nice but 6 would be great
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Down to the last week now. My updated guess

1. Purdue
2. Illinois
3. Northwestern
4. Nebraska
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. MSU
8. MN
9. Penn State
10. Indiana
11. tOSU
12. Maryland
13. Rutgers
14. Michigan

Gotta find a way to go 2-0 and avoid the 8/9 game.
Click to expand...
I see it like this after Gopher sweep:
1. Purdue
2. Illinois
3. Nebraska
4. Wisconsin 11-9
5. Minnesota 11-9
6. MSU 11-9
7. Northwestern 11-9
8. Iowa
9. Ohio State
10. PennState
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Rutgers
14. Michigan

I probably screwed up the bottom, but I can totally see the top eight going this way.
 

From some user on Reddit

Based on simulations of the remaining season using KenPom-style efficiency ratings. Tie-breaking done using official B1G tie-breaking rules.

1709587017849.png
 



Said in another thread, key to me is to find a way to up to that 5 or 6 seed to avoid running into Purdue or Illinois until the semifinals. Sweeping the final 2 most likely gets that done.
 





Otis said:
I see it like this after Gopher sweep:
1. Purdue
2. Illinois
3. Nebraska
4. Wisconsin 11-9
5. Minnesota 11-9
6. MSU 11-9
7. Northwestern 11-9
8. Iowa
9. Ohio State
10. PennState
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Rutgers
14. Michigan

I probably screwed up the bottom, but I can totally see the top eight going this way.
Click to expand...

Is there a way we can be above Michigan State if we finish tied with them? I was under the impression that due to their Illinois win, they would have the tiebreaker over us.
 


PUR (15-3). @ILL, WIS
ILL (13-5). PUR, @iowa
NW (11-7). @MSU, MN
NEB (11-8). @MICH
WIS (10-8). RUT, @PUR
IOWA (10-9). ILL
MN (9-9). IND, @NW
MSU (9-9). NW, @IND
IND (8-10). @MN, MSU
OSU (8-11). @RUT
PSU (8-11). MD
RUT (7-11). @wisc, OSU
MD (7-12). @PSU
MICH (3-16). NEB

OK those are current standings and remaining games. After playing around with the possible/likely outcomes, maybe the weirdest is PUR (16-4), ILL (15-5), then a five-way tie at 11-9 between NW, NEB, WISC, MN, MSU followed by IOWA (10-10), PSU (9-11), OSU/IND/RUT (8-12), then MD (7-13), MICH (3-17).

The tie-breaking rules are as follows:
--Between 2 teams: Detn'd by head-to-head during the season. If still tied, best record vs. highest teams in standings until a winner is determined. (ie. rec vs PUR, then ILL...)
--Between multiple teams: Detn'd by the highest winning % within the tied group (Not W-L). (ex: a team may have a 3-1 rec in tied group, but 2-0 gets higher seed).

They go on with the likes of: record vs D1 teams, highest net rank if needed to break ties.

We have to be careful who we cheer for due to tie-breakers even if MN finishes 11-9 in T3. Obviously we want WISC and IOWA to lose, MICH to beat NEB, gets tricky w/MSU.

Most likely, NEB will stay ahead of MN in standings at 12-8, but NW could very well lose both and finish 11-9.
 

WriterGoph said:
Is there a way we can be above Michigan State if we finish tied with them? I was under the impression that due to their Illinois win, they would have the tiebreaker over us.
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If Gophers, MSU and Northwestern tie at 11-9, Gophers win tie breaker and get the 4-seed based on round-robin between those three teams (3-1). MSU (2-2), Northwestern (1-3).
 

indygopher said:
If Gophers, MSU and Northwestern tie at 11-9, Gophers win tie breaker and get the 4-seed based on round-robin between those three teams (3-1). MSU (2-2), Northwestern (1-3).
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If Wisconsin wins one of their remaining games and is 11-9, too, they would get the 4 seed and Gophers would get the 5 seed.
 

indygopher said:
If Wisconsin wins one of their remaining games and is 11-9, too, they would get the 4 seed and Gophers would get the 5 seed.
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If Iowa beats Illinois, there could be a 5 way tie at 11-9. Iowa would be 4 seed, Wisc 5 and MN 6.
 


Otis said:
I see it like this after Gopher sweep:
1. Purdue
2. Illinois
3. Nebraska
4. Wisconsin 11-9
5. Minnesota 11-9
6. MSU 11-9
7. Northwestern 11-9
8. Iowa
9. Ohio State
10. PennState
11. Maryland
12. Indiana
13. Rutgers
14. Michigan

I probably screwed up the bottom, but I can totally see the top eight going this way.
Click to expand...
with northwesterns injuries this is where i am as well

MN, WI MSU and NW all finish 11-9
Iowa 10-10
 


I have to say that its fun having these discussions and scenarios! Its just great to be in the hunt for top half seedings and post season play.
 

Holy Man said:
Let’s get Indiana first. Not a great match up for us.
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They certainly weren't in the first game. They've been an underachieving team this season but they have talent and have won two in a row. They had a good comeback win at Maryland on Sunday.
 

Indiana lost to Penn State not long ago. But then they beat Wisconsin. Who can know.

I wonder what attendance will be like. I have a cheap seat for the game. The game was originally priced higher than other recent games. Hopefully it's a big night. These games have been fun.
 

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