"I Just Think We're Doomed To Go 9-3 The Rest Of My Life"

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RememberMurray

RememberMurray

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These are strange times we currently live in, and more than a little dark.

In an attempt to occupy myself with something that at least smacks of a pending return to normalcy, I present... some college football musings.

I ran across this video. The 'money quote' (as seen in the title of this thread) happens at around the 3:35 mark.

Some thoughts that occur to me regarding Michigan — which more than a few people would describe as a 'helmet school', and Minnesota — which many people still fail to take seriously in football:

— Legendary coach Bo Schembechler (and he deserved his legendary status) never won a national championship at Michigan. Never.

— Michigan last won a national title in 1997. Before that, their last national title was in 1948 — a gap of 49 years. (Minnesota last won a national title in 1960. Before that, their last national title was 1941 — a gap of 19 years).

— Watching this video, it occurs to me how Michigan fans have never really lowered their ultimate expectations. See the title of this thread for reference: a 9-3 season, to them, is a disappointment. Chamipionships are the goal, and apparently always will be for Michigan fans. This seems to be the case despite the long championship drought they've lived through.

Side note that should be of interest: Minnesota finished well above Michigan in both major polls last season. Time to raise our expectations...?

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Deace is much more entertaining when he’s melting down.

They have higher expectations because they usually have a top 10 roster, as he pointed out. We’ll likely never have that.

Deace is actually a closet Gopher/Fleck fan. He’s followed Fleck closely since his days at Western Michigan, and has a bunch of theories on why he’s able to get 4 star level performance from 3 star players. The theories, relating to culture, actually make a lot of sense.
 


PitinoFan said:
Deace is much more entertaining when he’s melting down.

They have higher expectations because they usually have a top 10 roster, as he pointed out. We’ll likely never have that.

Deace is actually a closet Gopher/Fleck fan. He’s followed Fleck closely since his days at Western Michigan, and has a bunch of theories on why he’s able to get 4 star level performance from 3 star players. The theories, relating to culture, actually make a lot of sense.
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I think many Gopher fans would agree 100% with your bolded statement. Here's an honest question: Why not? Why will Minnesota never have a top 10 roster?

I'm not baiting you; I'm genuinely wondering.
 

RememberMurray said:
I think many Gopher fans would agree 100% with your bolded statement. Here's an honest question: Why not? Why will Minnesota never have a top 10 roster?

I'm not baiting you; I'm genuinely wondering.
Click to expand...

I'll opine on that.

As long as the recruit ranking services ignore the Upper Midwest, MN won't get a top 10 "ranked" roster. By their own admission, the ranking services default to lower stars for unknown players from lightly recruited parts of the country (anywhere not the south, west coast and populated parts of the rust belt). That doesn't mean MN can't have a highly talented roster. IA and WI traditionally put players in the NFL at levels above their supposed recruit rankings.

I will add, though, I'm hoping that sustained success by the Gophers filters down to the high school level. Where HS players and fans get excited about football, thus improving the recruiting base and national exposure. As an extreme example, Alabama produces exponentially more highly ranked recruits than MN even though it has slightly less population than MN.

BTW, I'm surprised by how few top recruits come out of New York. https://www.bannersociety.com/2020/2/4/21111828/college-football-recruits-by-state
 


Panthadad2 said:
I'll opine on that.

As long as the recruit ranking services ignore the Upper Midwest, MN won't get a top 10 "ranked" roster. By their own admission, the ranking services default to lower stars for unknown players from lightly recruited parts of the country (anywhere not the south, west coast and populated parts of the rust belt). That doesn't mean MN can't have a highly talented roster. IA and WI traditionally put players in the NFL at levels above their supposed recruit rankings.

I will add, though, I'm hoping that sustained success by the Gophers filters down to the high school level. Where HS players and fans get excited about football, thus improving the recruiting base and national exposure. As an extreme example, Alabama produces exponentially more highly ranked recruits than MN even though it has slightly less population than MN.

BTW, I'm surprised by how few top recruits come out of New York. https://www.bannersociety.com/2020/2/4/21111828/college-football-recruits-by-state
Click to expand...

Thanks for the well thought-out answer to my question, Panthadad. Interesting link as well.
 

Panthadad, your argument would make a lot more sense to me, if we normally had a large percentage of our starters and 2-deep from the upper midwest. We still do have some, but not anything like NDSU for example. We have a good chunk of players from outside MN/WI/Iowa/Dakotas. Illinois to me is not upper midwest, more like great lakes.
 

According to Deace, Harbaugh has put a Top 10 roster on the field consistently for Michigan, and will continue to do so.

Minnesota hasn't come close to a Top 10 roster (according to recruiting rankings), and many Gopher fans believe we never will.

Yet we can't deny the fact that Minnesota finished #10 in the final college football rankings in both the AP and Coaches Poll, while Michigan with it's supposedly superior roster finished #18 in the AP, and #19 in the CP.

Are there valid conclusions we might draw from this?

Did Fleck simply do more with less, via motivational methods, scheming, etc., than Harbaugh?

Is Fleck's system simply superior?

Was this a one-time occurrence — meaning, will Minnesota sink back to it's former mediocrity?

Or... are the rankings systems currently used for recruiting actually over-valued, hit-or-miss, or even worthless?

Any thoughts? We seem to have time on our hands these days.
 

Of all those points/ideas, the "superior system" angle of it is the weakest, to me.

I don't think in this day and age, you can truly do something that is so crazy different, so superior schematically, that your opponent is simply powerless to stop it.

I think we have a plenty good system. But it's not groundbreaking.

When we won, it was because we kept being able to hit medium-long and long passes, which normally is hard to do consistently, and we defended well enough.
 



MplsGopher said:
Of all those points/ideas, the "superior system" angle of it is the weakest, to me.

I don't think in this day and age, you can truly do something that is so crazy different, so superior schematically, that your opponent is simply powerless to stop it.

I think we have a plenty good system. But it's not groundbreaking.

When we won, it was because we kept being able to hit medium-long and long passes, which normally is hard to do consistently, and we defended well enough.
Click to expand...

I think most here would agree that Tanner Morgan was far superior to Shea Patterson last season.

Morgan was a 3-star coming out of high school. If I recall correctly, Patterson was a 5-star.

One example proves nothing, of course. Still...
 

MplsGopher said:
Of all those points/ideas, the "superior system" angle of it is the weakest, to me.

I don't think in this day and age, you can truly do something that is so crazy different, so superior schematically, that your opponent is simply powerless to stop it.

I think we have a plenty good system. But it's not groundbreaking.

When we won, it was because we kept being able to hit medium-long and long passes, which normally is hard to do consistently, and we defended well enough.
Click to expand...

If recruiting, player development and player positioning are part of the system, than "superior system" definitely has its place IMO. Why did the Gophs routinely hit medium and long passes? It wasn't magic or luck. It was because Fleck and staff recruited good passing game players, developed them, and put them in an offense that worked for those players. They also emphasize time-of-possesion on offense which complements the defense (thus resulting in a top 10 defense last year). That's "system" in my book.
 

I think it’s about Fleck’s culture, and the level of buy-in of the players. That seems somewhat abstract, but we can all name a few teams (including the two teams most hated by our fanbase) who consistently outperform recruiting rankings, whether it’s their win-loss record, or putting players in the NFL. It’s because of their culture. Fleck methods are just different than theirs.
 

Panthadad2 said:
If recruiting, player development and player positioning are part of the system, than "superior system" definitely has its place IMO. Why did the Gophs routinely hit medium and long passes? It wasn't magic or luck. It was because Fleck and staff recruited good passing game players, developed them, and put them in an offense that worked for those players. They also emphasize time-of-possesion on offense which complements the defense (thus resulting in a top 10 defense last year). That's "system" in my book.
Click to expand...
Very good point.

I read "system" purely as on-field scheme, but you say here is absolutely valid.
 



It's getting hard for me to look at Fleck's success, both here and at Western Michigan, and not conclude that he's come up with some method or formula that is unique in some way.

I'm not sure what that is, exactly. But it's hard to argue with his results.

Minnesota went 11-2 last season, and finished #10 in the country.

That is quite remarkable, to say the least.
 

I may be wrong, or misinformed on the subject, but who are the main people for these recruiting websites that determine what grade a player gets? For example, who is it on 247 that ultimately decides player X is a .9004, but player Y is .8995?

It is my understanding that these are employees of 247/Rivals/ESPN who may have some experience in scouting talent, but not an advanced knowledge that you'd see in former NFL scouts or NCAA FB coaches. If I am wrong on that feel free to correct me.

My point in asking is that my brother is connected in an MLB organization and most advanced organizations currently run analytics on their own scouts against their recommendations for prospects, looking at major-league performance. It would be interesting if someone were to run a regression on the different people that ultimately give out the number grades on these sites against collegiate performance to determine which graders most accurately determine on-field play. It would take someone much smarter than I.... any takers?
 

RememberMurray said:
It's getting hard for me to look at Fleck's success, both here and at Western Michigan, and not conclude that he's come up with some method or formula that is unique in some way.

I'm not sure what that is, exactly. But it's hard to argue with his results.

Minnesota went 11-2 last season, and finished #10 in the country.

That is quite remarkable, to say the least.
Click to expand...

I'm starting to think the same thing. The Gophers had a certain calmness and confidence this year that I've never seen them have before. They just seem to know how to execute when the game is on the line. No more drooping shoulders and defeated body language when something goes wrong.

Compare that to the teams that blew 31 pt. leads to Ohio State and Texas Tech, the Michigan game we shall never speak of, the dropped punt snap in the end zone against Wisconsin, and on and on for decades. Didn't really matter who the coach was (other than maybe Holtz?), Gophers always seemed to be lacking confidence and trying not to lose. Something is different now and I like it a lot.
 

The Gophers have become a confident lot under PJF. Grades are good, kids feel good, volunteering, and they scrimmage on Sundays as hard as they play the game.
 

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