NoelarBear
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Know Your Opponent: Illinois Fighting Illini - GopherHole.com
Before every game, I ask a reporter who covers the Gophers upcoming opponent to give us a view from the opponent’s perspective. I asked Doug Bucshon from Orange and Blue News six questions about the Illinois Fighting Illini Minnesota hosts Illinois in Minneapolis on November 5th, this will be...
Before every game, I ask a reporter who covers the Gophers upcoming opponent to give us a view from the opponent’s perspective.
I asked Doug Bucshon from Orange and Blue News six questions about the Illinois Fighting Illini.
Minnesota hosts Illinois in Minneapolis on November 5th, this will be the 76th meeting between the two programs.
Huge thanks to Doug for giving us his thoughts!
Follow Doug on Twitter: @DougBucshon
Follow Noel on Twitter: @N0elthompson
1. The Illinois Fighting Illini finished the 2022 season with an overall record of 8-5, finishing second in the Big Ten West by going 5-4 in the Big Ten. It was one of the top 15 winning seasons in over 130 years. It is now year three under head coach Bret Bielema. Illinois hasn’t enjoyed back-to-back winning regular seasons since the early 1990s. What were the expectations for this team heading into the season? In your opinion, have they met those expectations?
No, they haven’t. It’s been a disappointing season so far for the team and the fans. Even with heavy losses to graduation and the NFL Draft, most preseason expectations were for the momentum from 2022 to carry over and for the Illini to contend once again in the Big Ten West.
Most preseason prognosticators saw Illinois returning to another bowl game, and while that’s still possible, it seems unlikely with the team sitting at 3-5 heading into the game at Minnesota. Maybe more disappointing than the record is the way they’ve lost. Illinois has looked out of sorts at times and let games get away from them because of self-inflicted wounds.
It appeared Bielema had figured it out after a surprising win at Maryland. Then the wheels came off in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin, and they let a big lead slip away.
2. Illinois enters Saturday’s game with an overall record of 3-5 and 1-4 in the Big Ten. They are coming off an idle week after a tough loss to Wisconsin, where the Badgers scored 18 straight points to win 25-21. It appears that the idle week came at the right time. What has gone right for Illinois this year? What has gone wrong?
The main thing that has gone right is the play of All-American defensive lineman Jer’Zhan Newton. He’s a stud and a future first-round draft pick. More on Newton below.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer, a transfer from Ole Miss, has a bright future. Though he’s had a few hiccups and tossed a few too many picks, he has the arm talent and athleticism to be a successful quarterback in this league. His development is one of the things that has gone right.
Offensive line play has gone from exceedingly poor to pretty decent over the past couple of weeks. You can spin that as something that has gone right. They’ve improved, without a doubt. They were fighting through injuries and playing musical chairs up front early in the year, but now they seem to have hit their stride.
A lot has gone wrong. One of the most frustrating things is the costly penalties. Illinois is the second-most penalized team in the Big Ten. Many of the penalties have been of the 15-yard variety, and they came at inopportune times on defense, helping to keep opponent drives alive. Illinois has to play a fundamentally sound defense to get stops, but there have been too many mistakes, like the penalties, missed assignments, and missed tackles.
3. Like Minnesota, Illinois enters the 2023 season needing to replace a star at the running back position after Chase Brown goes to the NFL. The Illini also entered this year with a new starter under center. Illinois is averaging 20 points per game. What are the strengths of this offense? What is one area that concerns you entering the game against Minnesota?
The Illini sport the No. 4 passing offense in the Big Ten through the first eight games. Slot receiver Isaiah Williams is one of the top receivers in the Big Ten. Altmyer has connected on some big plays over the top.
Illinois wants to run to set up the pass. They do mix it up some on first down, but establishing the running game is a priority. It hasn’t come easy, but they have stuck with it and made some strides in the last couple of weeks. Success in the early downs puts Altmyer in advantageous situations, and he’s good when he has a clean pocket.
Turnovers are nearly always a factor, and that stat favors Minnesota. That’s probably the biggest area of concern. The Gophers take the ball away at a fairly high clip, and Illinois has 14 turnovers and a negative turnover margin on the season.
4. In 2022, Illinois boasted one of the best defenses in the country. They finished first in the Big Ten in points allowed by only allowing 12.8 points per game. They were also one of the best at rushing and passing defense. It seems that the defense has taken a step back this year. (Which is understandable given the NFL talent they lost and the DC heading to coach at Purdue.) The Illinois defense is giving up 27.8 points and 396 yards a game, which is at or near the bottom in the Big Ten in both categories. What do you make of this defense? Is there a specific area they struggle with? How have they gotten better as the season has gone on?
Illinois can’t stop the run. Opposing teams are averaging 4.18 yards per rushing attempt. Braelon Allen put the game away for Wisconsin in that game, rushing for 145 yards on 29 carries. The linebacker play has improved of late, but Illinois is still giving up chunk yards on the ground.
And when you can’t stop the run, you’re going to be bad on third down. The Illini’s Big Ten-worst 46.36 opponent third down conversion rate is probably the telltale stat for the defense. Teams have been able to sustain drives and punch them in at a high clip when they get in the red zone.
5. Can you give us a few impact players that Minnesota fans should know about for the game on Saturday? Are there any players that will miss the game due to injury or players coming back from injury?
Newton was ejected for the targeting against Wisconsin, so he will sit out the first half against Gopher. He’s the kind of impactful defensive lineman that opponents need to be aware of at all times and double teams. Newton was the highest-graded defensive player in the nation by PFF in the Wisconsin game.
The Illini are hopeful that defensive lineman Keith Randolph and running back Reggie Love will be back in action this week after missing the previous game with injuries. The Illini are thin up front, with Randolph out of the lineup. Freshman running back Kaden Feagin filled in admirably for Love and will get his share of carries again this week.
Illinois wants to put the ball in the hands of Williams as much as possible in space and let him make plays. He’ll get the ball on quick slants, bubble screens, and jet sweeps. Williams has been a huge deep threat, but he’s slippery and effective on quick hitters.
6. This Saturday marks the 76th time Minnesota and Illinois will face each other on the football field. P.J. Fleck is 3-3 against Illinois at Minnesota. It’s no secret to Gophers fans that Bret Bielema is undefeated against the Gophers as a head football coach, as he has a perfect 9-0 record against them. The Illini come to Minneapolis as two-point underdogs. What does Illinois need to do to come away with a victory? What is your prediction for the game?
It should be a slugfest. Illinois will need to win the line of scrimmage against a physical Minesota offensive line and slow down the Gopher’s running game. They will want to get stops on first and second down and put Minnesota in third and long situations. Third-down stops have been a problem all season.
Offensively, I think Illinois needs to strike on big plays. Though they have sustained some long drives occasionally, they haven’t been consistent enough to win games by grinding them out. The Illini have 14 plays this season of 30 or more yards, ranking third in the Big Ten. They will need a couple more on Saturday.
Minnesota is more physical. The Gophers’ defense has been stingy. They should handle Illinois in the trenches and extend their winning streak to three games.
Minnesota 24 Illinois 17
