How To Judge a Season

DoubleDeckerDons

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If they finish 7-6 next year is that a success?
Honestly, no. I think AK8 is a much better QB than tanner. Despite losing Mo, I think it will be good for the offense to shift more of its focus toward passing, as we did in 2019. Our schedule does look a lot tougher next year, but who is to say? This is college football after all.
 

Some guy

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Honestly, no. I think AK8 is a much better QB than tanner. Despite losing Mo, I think it will be good for the offense to shift more of its focus toward passing, as we did in 2019. Our schedule does look a lot tougher next year, but who is to say? This is college football after all.
I’m not sure the offense will have the same upside next year without Mo. I’m not sure we will see games where the other team literally can’t get us off the field. BUT I also think the offense will have less downside.

5 games at 20 or fewer this year. I expect that to be smaller than 5 next year. We are 1-4 in those games.

Last time the team had 5 games of 20 or less was 2017. (6….1-5 in those 6)


2018 - 3 (0-3)
2019 - 2 (0-2)
2020 - 2 (0-2) in 7 games…that’s a pace for 3-4 in a 12 game schedule but there were no non conference games in that 7
2021 - 4 (2-2)
 
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UpAndUnder43

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I am a realist and do not want to settle for mediocracy. Not a slant toward you —just don’t see how being 7-6 and losing to the teams we have can be construed as being successful
I never said it was successful. That’s why you responding to me makes no sense.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon

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It was a tough season to some extent. But IMO:
  • We lost A LOT more talent in 2021 than we realized.
  • CRAB was Atlas holding up the passing game all on his own.
  • Tanner was the starting QB for good reason ...
  • Mo is maybe even better than we think....
  • Defense is very good but can't make the offense score points.

Tough year to some extent considering next year's schedule.

Still I've had plenty of fun games too.
 



MaxyJR1

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from the OP: The Gophers have a fine team this year and have played some really good football.

Boy, I just don't know about the "fine" team.

Granted, feelings could change quite a bit depending on the outcome of the Wisconsin game and the Bowl game.

If the Gophers finish 9-4 with a win over Wisconsin and winning a bowl game, that certainly makes things look better.

But - it is also possible that the Gophers could lose to Wisconsin, lose the bowl game and finish 7-6.
I would certainly not call that a "fine" performance.

I just don't think you can give this team a final grade until all of the work has been handed in. If they nail the final test, they can pull up their grade. If they turn in a bad term paper, the grade could drop. (says the guy who slept through his Spanish final as a college freshman.....)
I agree. I was looking at a bowl prediction yesterday and was surprised that the B1G teams were a pick-em or favored in every bowl game, by the individual. Hard to say what the B1G really is until all the games are played. Like someone said Iowa State beat Iowa and then finished last in the B12.

tOSU: beat a 8-3 Notre Dame team (who beat Clemson)
Mich: 6-6 UCONN
PSU: Crushed a 5-6 Auburn team
Iowa: Lost to Iowa St. (4-7)
Illinois: Beat Virginia (3-7)
Purdue: Lost to Syracuse (6-5)
MN: Beat Colorado (1-10)
WI: Lost to Washington State (7-4)
Maryland: beat SMU (6-5)
Michigan St.: Lost to Washington (9-2)
Indiana: Lost to Cincinati (9-2)
Nebraska: Lost to Oklahoma (6-5)
Rutgers: Beat Boston College (3-8)
Northwestern: Lost to Duke (7-4)

** Note that 33 P5 teams are between 3-5 conference wins
18 teams have 1-2 conference wins
12 teams have 6+ conference wins (number will go up this week by about 6 teams)
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon

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I agree. I was looking at a bowl prediction yesterday and was surprised that the B1G teams were a pick-em or favored in every bowl game, by the individual. Hard to say what the B1G really is until all the games are played. Like someone said Iowa State beat Iowa and then finished last in the B12.

tOSU: beat a 8-3 Notre Dame team (who beat Clemson)
Mich: 6-6 UCONN
PSU: Crushed a 5-6 Auburn team
Iowa: Lost to Iowa St. (4-7)
Illinois: Beat Virginia (3-7)
Purdue: Lost to Syracuse (6-5)
MN: Beat Colorado (1-10)
WI: Lost to Washington State (7-4)
Maryland: beat SMU (6-5)
Michigan St.: Lost to Washington (9-2)
Indiana: Lost to Cincinati (9-2)
Nebraska: Lost to Oklahoma (6-5)
Rutgers: Beat Boston College (3-8)
Northwestern: Lost to Duke (7-4)

** Note that 33 P5 teams are between 3-5 conference wins
18 teams have 1-2 conference wins
12 teams have 6+ conference wins (number will go up this week by about 6 teams)
And bowl games aren't always great measuring sticks.

I really do think they're a bit of a wild card with guys sitting out and on and off motivational situations.
 

Pompous Elitist

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Season has been meh and disappointing but that’s true of 98% of sporting seasons everywhere. Some have lower bars of success which is healthy for non-helmet school fans. Most of us go through the rabid phase and then settle in at an interested, even enthusiastic, but not obsessive or irrational phase. Some proceed into apathy and lawn activities. Some start lashing out at the non-believers.

Regarding NIL some said it was all happening under the table anyway…now that bribes have been legalized I guess we’ll see if that creates more or less problems. It’s a real time experiment.
 



cjbfbp

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If they finish 7-6 next year is that a success?

Yes, I think so at this point. However, the 2023 schedule is backloaded. Viewing it at this point, @ North Carolina looks like the only big challenge of the first five games. Our two conference games in that five game stretch feature Nebraska and Northwestern as opponents. It would be easy to think of 7-6 as a disappointment if we have a 5-0 start.

It will be interesting to watch what happens in the off season to Wisconsin. Do key players transfer? They clearly were a bit down this season. Does that carry over to next season? One would think that Michigan State has to be more successful next year but how much better will they be?
 

PhiloVance

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I can’t remember
I feel like it was somewhere between 6.5 and 7.5 but honestly no recollection

Full list of 2022 Big Ten Championship odds​

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook




SchoolOdds
Ohio State-215
Michigan+600
Wisconsin+1100
Penn State+1600
Iowa+2000
Nebraska+2200
Minnesota+2800
Michigan State+2800
Purdue+3000
Maryland+15000
Illinois+20000
Indiana+30000
Rutgers+50000
Northwestern+50000
 

Gold Rush

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I agree with SON that we have to see how the last two games play out to judge the season.

We will not have the great season that we were hoping for after the MSU game. If you would have told Gophers fans after that game where we would be after the Iowa game, most would be severely disappointed. However, if we could beat Wisconsin and win a bowl game I think it would help out quite a bit. I would really like to beat Wisconsin, that's for sure.

The defense turned out to be as good or better than I could have hoped for preseason. Actually -- they did an excellent job most of the year. Offensively, I was hoping for a lot better, especially in the passing game. I thought the return of KC would help QB Morgan get back to 2019 but that just did not happen. We have GOT to get better throwing the ball next year.

Of note, I thought the talent level between the Gophers and Iowa has finally gotten to the point where the Gophers are even a little better talent-wise. This is the first time I have said that in a very very long time. We used to lose games just due to Iowa's superior talent, now I would blame the last game on Fleck being outcoached and a few key mistakes. I would not place it on having inferior talent to the Hawkeyes. This is an encouraging sign for us.

Going forward, next year will be a rebuilding year. If the Gophers make it to a bowl game next year I would consider that an accomplishment because they have a chance to really go South next year in the standings.
 

PhiloVance

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FanSinceTheFifties

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Over my time on GH, I have seen many attempts at devising a metric for a successful season. Some are kind of crazy for a team with our built-in recruiting limitations (recently made worse by NIL corruption). Others are realistic, in terms of win totals, but kind of neglect our strength of schedule for that year and which teams we actually beat.

The Gophers have a fine team this year and have played some really good football. They have also suffered a couple of losses that just don't seem fair or explicable. This year those would be Purdue and Iowa.

My personal test has come down to this (for ANY season): If we lose to both Wisconsin and Iowa, the season is not a success unless we achieve at least 9 wins overall. If we beat one of Iowa or Wisconsin and qualify for a bowl, the season is good/OK. If we beat Iowa and Wisconsin both (hasn't happened yet in the 21st Century), then the season is a great success, so long as we qualify for a bowl.

I believe that beating Iowa and Wisconsin would be as good an indicator as any of whether the team had a good or great season, and, if "great," would almost mean we had a high number of wins overall.

his might be why I have such a feeling of emptiness after this year's Iowa game. We really should have won. Even with Iowa's supposed defensive superiority (which Mo proved wrong) and with its ST's superiority, we still should have beaten them by a score or two. Iowa didn't beat us--we beat ourselves. This season, from early on, shaped up as the season we would trounce both Iowa and Wisconsin. Now, we head into Madison, with our daubers down, hoping to end the season on a happy note. It can still be a good/OK season ...

Well told.
I'd look at five year stretches and conference-only record to assess success. In five seasons we'd play 45 conference games. I'd consider par to be: 25 conference wins of which 2 are over Iowa and 2 over Wisconsin. 4 of the 5 years in a bowl. A good year among the five would be 6-3 in conference, a great year would be 7-2 and a major bowl.
 

PhiloVance

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I knew it was in the 6.5-7.5 range
Couldn’t remember. I think maybe you could get it 6.5 in places but wouldn’t get 1:1 money
So the Gophers are right where they were predicted to be. If they beat Wisc they'll have exceeded the predictions and if they win a bowl game its icing on the cake.
 

MirandaB

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It’s east to not know anyone who considers it a success if you don’t have any friends
I know plenty of people who would think it a successful season. I also know plenty who think it’s disappointing

You should make more friends
I'll be your friend Golden Girl. What have we accomplished this year? Won the West? Beaten Iowa? Where's the success?
 

Some guy

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I'll be your friend Golden Girl. What have we accomplished this year? Won the West? Beaten Iowa? Where's the success?
If they beat wisconsin it will be the best 4 year stretch in terms of big ten records over .500 since the late 60s

Was my original reason for saying 8-4 would be a success at the beginning of the year
 

Some guy

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So the Gophers are right where they were predicted to be. If they beat Wisc they'll have exceeded the predictions and if they win a bowl game its icing on the cake.
Yeah. Definitely disappointing for me. But to pretend like this is some massive failure when we were the favorite and failed to contend that would be lying

Preseason poll by regional media Cleveland.com or whatever had the team picked 3rd about the same distance to 5th and 2nd in the poll.
 

Go Gophs

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Purdue, I'd agree.

Iowa, about equal.our offense is better, their defense and special teams are better and Kirk owns PJ

Wisconsin I'd say we're about equal too.
We almost doubled their yardage, lead the T.O.P., converted more on 3rd down, didn't have to punt as often, etc.

Kirk does own PJ though, you are right about that. The bigger issue for me, is how do you rush for over 300 yards and only score 10. There is only one way that happens and that is with both hands wrapped around your neck.
 

howeda7

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Before the season, I'd have given 8-4 a B grade and 7-5 a C. I would now downgrade those both one level. The schedule turned out to be even easier than expected and we failed to take advantage. We can still salvage a C by beating Bucky. If we fail, it's a D. 7 wins, with the best one being Michigan State simply isn't acceptable.
 

Go Gophs

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I think all the teams that aren't Michigan and Ohio St. will just tend to shuffle amongst themselves going forward.

Got news for you guys. NIL doesn't change anything. These programs have been paying their players for quite some time already.
 

short ornery norwegian

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It's not a massive failure.

But, I do think it's fair to call this season a missed opportunity.

and - for programs like MN, that type of opportunity doesn't come around too often. when it does, you need to take advantage of it. If you don't take advantage, you could be waiting a long time for the next opportunity.

it's like buying a lottery ticket. if you don't match any numbers, you throw away the ticket and never think about it again. But, if you match four out of five numbers, and missed winning a million dollars by one number, you're going to remember that.

this season could have been MN's lottery ticket. but someone else is going home with the big prize.
 

Pompous Elitist

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It's not a massive failure.

But, I do think it's fair to call this season a missed opportunity.

and - for programs like MN, that type of opportunity doesn't come around too often. when it does, you need to take advantage of it. If you don't take advantage, you could be waiting a long time for the next opportunity.

it's like buying a lottery ticket. if you don't match any numbers, you throw away the ticket and never think about it again. But, if you match four out of five numbers, and missed winning a million dollars by one number, you're going to remember that.

this season could have been MN's lottery ticket. but someone else is going home with the big prize.

For me the disappointment stems from every opponent being worse than expected except Illinois. IMO the team underperformed in all 3 phases. The pass game stinks, the defense has the lowest number of qb pressures in the Big Ten and had some catastrophic breakdowns last week, and special teams is anywhere from neutral to a liability depending on what you look at.

If the wins were against better opponents and the losses against better psychologically that’s easier to process. Yes, the moral victory coping mechanism. We have the choking mechanism at work this season.
 

Some guy

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It's not a massive failure.

But, I do think it's fair to call this season a missed opportunity.

and - for programs like MN, that type of opportunity doesn't come around too often. when it does, you need to take advantage of it. If you don't take advantage, you could be waiting a long time for the next opportunity.

it's like buying a lottery ticket. if you don't match any numbers, you throw away the ticket and never think about it again. But, if you match four out of five numbers, and missed winning a million dollars by one number, you're going to remember that.

this season could have been MN's lottery ticket. but someone else is going home with the big prize.
For sure. Big disappointment
Not because this is a good team that didn’t win. But because we didn’t have to change very much to be the least bad in a mediocre division. Should’ve taken advantage.
 

disco

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Got news for you guys. NIL doesn't change anything. These programs have been paying their players for quite some time already.
Oh, I've been saying that for years. But now that it's all out in the open, it's that much easier.
 

COS Gopherfan

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You and I have been fans for just about the same amount of time, and I think you're probably right. The unfortunate thing is that we never had that one season where the stars aligned like it did for Purdue in the Brees era. We're not the only program that will likely suffer under the NIL era though. I think all the teams that aren't Michigan and Ohio St. will just tend to shuffle amongst themselves going forward.
I agree completely..outside of Ohio St and Michigan, everyone else will suffer from NIL. I'm wondering if we've already seen the effects for Wisconsin and Iowa.. Losing B. Irving and KY Thomas cost us as Bryce has been no good and I don't see the Gophs recruiting receivers
 

btowngopher

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Just feels like we lost too much on offense to take advantage of a weak schedule. No Irving or Thomas for the year. No CrAB most of the year. No Mo vs Purdue. Morgan going down. Just too much to overcome, still just a couple unlucky plays away from beating Purdue and Iowa. Lot of tough breaks this season unfortunately. I don’t think it was an epic failure on anyone’s part.
 




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