How the Gophers stay on the bubble with a 7-11 record

[Dano564]

I have plenty of understanding of it. But if you think we can win 3 more games over NW, Illinois and Penn State, lose all the others, lose in the 1st round of the BTT and still have a 90% chance of making it, your exuberance is irrational.

Actually he's probably 90% chance of being correct.

8-10 gets the Gophers in.

 

[Dano564]

8-10 record puts Gophers RPI at 45.
7-11 puts Gophers RPI around 54-55.

Richmond is currently 45.
Projected to finish around 55.

If they finish 20-11 or better, they'd stay in top 50.
They need a 5-3 finish from here to stay arouind 50 or above.

 

[Dano564]

Thought I'd share this which I found online.
Recently at large bids have correlated strongly with RPI ranking.

If you are a major conference team, and you have an RPI 1- 50, you're in good shape.

 

[mnsportsgeek]

It's looking a little bit like 8-10 could sneak us into the tourney. 9-9 is still the goal. 7-11 isn't gonna cut it unless you make it to the finals of the BTT.

 

[Dano564]

It's looking a little bit like 8-10 could sneak us into the tourney. 9-9 is still the goal. 7-11 isn't gonna cut it unless you make it to the finals of the BTT.

False.

8-10 they will be in, probably a 10-11 seed. Not a 12 or 13. 9-9 is still the goal, sure.
7-11 will depend on BTT. But 7-11 and a win and a loss in BTT would likely put them last four in or first four out. Squarely on the bubble.
A lot of that depends on how the mid-major tournaments go and what other bubble teams do in the time being.

 

[howeda7]

Actually he's probably 90% chance of being correct.

8-10 gets the Gophers in.

We're currently one of the last 8 teams in. You're suggesting that we can go 3-5 from this point, with no 'good' wins and not drop more than 5-6 spots, even considering bid stealers? Sorry, I don't see it. If we end up 8-10 we darn well better win at least one BTT game, or we're not getting in.

 

[Dano564]

False.

8-10 they will be in, probably a 10-11 seed. Not a 12 or 13. 9-9 is still the goal, sure.
7-11 will depend on BTT. But 7-11 and a win and a loss in BTT would likely put them last four in or first four out. Squarely on the bubble.
A lot of that depends on how the mid-major tournaments go and what other bubble teams do in the time being.

It's not like all the other "bubble teams" will win out from here. They are bubble teams as well. Most of them will still lose, and other good teams above us will still have losses as well.
Let it play out.... we'll see how it looks in a couple weeks, but I'm hoping after a win at Wisconsin, we won't have to worry about 7-11 anymore, or 8-10 after we win at NW'ern.