How the first round draft picks were rated coming out of HS and does it matter?

MspHawk

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In general, each year Rivals gives out around 30 5-stars, 300 4-stars, 750 3-stars, and 1500+ 2-stars.

This article takes a look at all 32 first round draft picks and their ranking coming out of high school. Obviously, drafting, recruiting, assigning stars, none of this is an exact science. You're still dealing with humans and there is a degree of timing and luck along with all of the data. To some fans stars do matter. The only fans that say they don't are the ones that don't get many 4+ star players. The argument can be made both ways if you want to debate it. I just thought this to be an interesting article.
It's not all about rivals rating system, it is how the players develop in college. Rivals rating system is based on what they do in HS, once they hit that next level, it starts all over again. At the end of the day is the "Progam" equiped with the staff and the tools to take kids from where they are today and make them better.

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Here is the article.

There were as many former two-star prospects as five-star prospects (four) taken in the first round of the NFL draft Thursday night.

Two of the former two-star guys starred at Boise State: defensive end/outside linebacker Shea McClellin, who was selected by Chicago, and running back Doug Martin, drafted by Tampa Bay. The other former two-star prospects were Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe and Syracuse defensive end Chandler Jones.

Dontari Poe went from unranked two-star prospect in 2008 to the No. 11 pick in the NFL draft.
The five-star guys who went in the first round were Alabama running back Trent Richardson, USC offensive tackle Matt Kalil, Notre Dame wide receiver Michael Floyd and Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick.

Former four-star recruits led the way in the first round, with 13 selected. There were 10 former three-star signees, and one draftee (Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden) graduated high school before the Rivals.com ranking system was in place. Weeden played five seasons of minor-league baseball before enrolling at Oklahoma State to play football in 2007.

Among the conferences, the SEC again had the most first-round selections, with nine. Four of the top 10 picks were SEC players. Five Big 12 players were picked, followed by four from the Big Ten (all after pick 22) and Pac-12, three from the ACC, two each from the Big East, Mountain West and independent ranks and one from Conference USA.

Both independent players were from Notre Dame, which was one of 10 schools that had at least two players picked. Alabama had four, and Baylor, Boise State, Illinois, LSU, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Stanford and USC were the others with two. It was the second year in a row Alabama had four first-rounders.

In terms of high school ball, there were five former Texas prep stars selected. Second-most among the states was Tennessee with three; there were two players each from Alabama, California, Florida, Ohio, Oklahoma and Virginia, and one each from Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota, Washington and Wisconsin.

Finally, this was the first draft since 1980 that no player from the state of Florida's "Big Three" - Florida, Florida State and Miami - was taken in the first round.
 

It's about percentages. There are between 24-30 five-star recruits each year and probably over 300 two-star recruits. So about 15% of the five-stars went in the first round, where as something like .5% of the two-stars, at best, went in the first round.

That's means five stars are some like thirty times more likely to be drafted in the first round than a two star, according to this data. I know it's not a good sample size by an stretch, and my percentages and numbers are based on educated estimates, but it's still worth noting in my opinion; recruiting rankings are indicative of success at the next levels.
 




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