How MN will become a National Power in basketball

[beowulftom]

1. Recruit a quality coach with national prominence. (check)
2. Begin making the National tourney with regularity (check)
3. Improve recruiting (check)
4. Convince their fan base that this is happening (................) This could take some time....

 

[Minnie Soda]

It's a step-by-step process that won't happen overnight, but trust me when I say that it's moving in the right direction. It doesn't help No. 3 on your list when there are constantly doubters who post negative thoughts about where the Gophers are in the process.

 

[94Gopher]

I think the list is a good start but I would have to add a new practice facility to the list. Not defending it, I just think it is a reality.

I know this is a touchy subject but I question how much impact negative posts on this board actually have on recruiting. Are we really that important to these kids? I would be curious to see what GL thinks -- I think she would have much insight into the topic.

 

[Minnie Soda]

I honestly believe that posts on message boards CAN have an impact on recruiting. I mean, if I was an 18-year old kid being recruited by several schools, there is no freaking way that I wouldn't be curious enough to go online and try to find out what's being said about me. I don't know, maybe I'm different than the rest. But wouldn't you want to find out what's being written about you if you were a sought-after recruit?

 

[Roland Brooks]

Seriously!

Seriously! I mean are you serious? Seriously?

Lot of power on this board I guess

 

[94Gopher]

Again, pure speculation on my part, I have no inside info. Any example from my own life would be comical! That said...

How fragile are these guys really? I know they are usually 16, 17,18, but don't you think most of these guys are supremely confident in their own abilities?

I just don't think they are worried about what some faceless anonymous dope with the moniker 94Gopher writes -- nor should they be.

 

[chi-town gopher]

I honestly believe that posts on message boards CAN have an impact on recruiting. I mean, if I was an 18-year old kid being recruited by several schools, there is no freaking way that I wouldn't be curious enough to go online and try to find out what's being said about me. I don't know, maybe I'm different than the rest. But wouldn't you want to find out what's being written about you if you were a sought-after recruit?

I'm not sure I would care a whole lot if I was a recruit, especially if I was from somewhere outside of Minnesota and I knew there was a good chance nobody on the message board had ever seen me play. It is a little different for a kid like Cory because he's been on tv a lot, but he doesn't need to check gopherhole to find out people think he is good.

A kid like Oto is a perfect example. While we all have opinions on his lip synching skills, I'm doubting anybody has actually seen him play in a game. Some people compare him to Robbie Hummel, others say he doesn't belong in the big ten but nobody has any idea right now. When you combine that with the fact that the majority of the people on the board don't have great basketball minds, do you really think these kids care what anybody says?

I have never thought this message board was an accurate reflection of the Gopher fan base, it is just dominated by a number of people that like to argue about everything. There are some posters that consistently have good information and interesting information to share (JohnnyGopher, Selection Sunday, GopherLady, UWOle, etc) but for the most part the conversation on the board is dominated by people with agendas or people that are just bored and enjoy bothering others. Since they have no need for any inside information as they are actually a part of the team/recruiting process, I can't see why they would ever check the site out.

 

[Minnie Soda]

I don't think these kids' egos are fragile, and they're looking for support. I think I'd do it for pure entertainment, as much as anything else. Honestly, if you were a kid who could make 30-somethings stress out over whether you're going to sign with their favorite school (or alma mater), wouldn't it give you some enjoyment on those rare days where you were bored enough to do something other than update your Facebook page with a bland Status Update that didn't indicate where you were leaning toward attending?

You can say that you hope the kids Minnesota is recruiting aren't checking out a site like this one, but I don't think you could ever say that there aren't any kids who might.

 

[Gopher in Texas]

Not sure how much influence GopherHole has on the recruits, but the recruits are looking for support from the fans. Quote I read from Cory via Mo (I think) "So they really want me there?".

Also, from what I read about the Vander Blue decommit from WI, (pure speculation) seems there were some message board items that caused hard feelings. Also, a couple of articles on the leaked meeting between Vander and WI caused more hard feelings. This coupled with pressure from the Maymons (speculation) led to the decommit. Gopher Warrior probably has more accurate information on this (since my information is totally from message boards and articles).

 

[SelectionSunday]

I would add:

1A. Become a regular top-3 finisher in the Big Ten standings.

2A. Win (multiple) games in the NCAA Tournament. Being a regular in the NCAA Tournament will mean diddly-squat once the field expands to 96.

 

[woohoo]

Seriously! I mean are you serious? Seriously?

Lot of power on this board I guess

I don't know about this board in particular (although I do hold it in high regard most of the time), but apparently the badger-boards do.

Gopher in Texas was right about Blue.

Vander Blue Decommit

Added -

As far as becoming a national power, its probably going to take some time. Why rant and rave about recruit *ratings when they are posted by analysts who have limited exposure to recruits' videos and who are generally less familiar with minnesota's situation than the average GH member? I'd guess Tubby spends time thinking about the team every day, more time even than us fans. He has proven to be a good coach year after year and knows what players he needs to make the team work. Give it some time.

 

[GoGophers2005]

I question the relevance of makiny the field of 64 in the current format.
The gopher football team continually gets mocked at making a lower tier bowl game and it isnt fair when you look at it.
There were 7 big ten teams that made a bowl game last year and the same number of teams made the 2009 NCAA bb tourny.

 

[oleboy41]

didn't feel like reading this whole thread but right now we have a moderately talented team and none of our recruits appear to be impact players. Maybe good to very good role players but nobody I'd expect to make an all conference team in the future. You need talent. Purdue became nationally relevant again when they got 3 or 4 highly ranked guys with NBA potential. MSU never has superstars but they always have a few legit NBA prospects on their roster. OSU is relevant since they started recruiting their butt off. The only B10 team to become relevant nationally without top notch next level type talent is Wisky but even they've had guys like Tucker and Harris

 

[PapaHawk21]

1. Recruit a quality coach with national prominence. (check)
2. Begin making the National tourney with regularity (check)
3. Improve recruiting (check)
4. Convince their fan base that this is happening (................) This could take some time....

I think this is a valid post. My only point of dissent is argument number 2. If the tournament expands to 96, regular tournament appearances lose value. Minnesota needed to beat Michigan State and Purdue to get into the field of 65 this past season. If the field was 96 then Minnesota would have easily been a tournament team before the big10 tournament despite having numerous bad losses and a .500 big 10 campaign. North Carolina would have been in the field of 96 with a 5-11 record in the ACC because of their prestige and wins against Michigan State and Ohio State. While getting to the tournament every year is necessary, a field of 96 diminishes the value of that variable in discerning a program's rise to power.

 

[howeda7]

I question the relevance of makiny the field of 64 in the current format.
The gopher football team continually gets mocked at making a lower tier bowl game and it isnt fair when you look at it.
There were 7 big ten teams that made a bowl game last year and the same number of teams made the 2009 NCAA bb tourny.

It's true some years, and some year's it isn't. With football it's pretty much assured that the 7th (or even 8th) place team will make a bowl game, all they have to do is be .500. The 7th place basketball team is in no way assured of making the 64-team tournament. And if they finished 15-15, 7-11 which is the basketball equivalent of 6-6, 3-5, they would not even be in the conversation.

 

[seli0046]

It's as simple as percentages

There are 68 NCAA Football teams that play in a bowl game out of 119.

There are 65 teams that play in the NCAA Basketball Tournament out of 347

57.1% of Football teams make a bowl game
18.7% of Basketball teams make the NCAA tournament

So the Gophers Football team barely squeeking into a bowl game probably means they are about 50th in the country. The Basketball similarily were probably about the 50th best in the country but being 50th out of 119 is a lot different then 50th of 347...

 

[seli0046]

But if you want to be fair to compare this to postseason play to football overall you have to include the NIT (32 teams) the CBI (16 teams) and the CollegeInsider.com tournament (16 teams) so in reality 128 NCAA Basketball teams make postseason play. So 36.9% make some sort of postseason play. Still a lot less then Football though...

 

[GopherLady]

I think the list is a good start but I would have to add a new practice facility to the list. Not defending it, I just think it is a reality.

I know this is a touchy subject but I question how much impact negative posts on this board actually have on recruiting. Are we really that important to these kids? I would be curious to see what GL thinks -- I think she would have much insight into the topic.

This is a good question - and I have asked many players and recruits if they read GH. Some say they used to, but it was too negative, some don't read it, some just have family members that read it, and some do read it. It's kind of a mixed bag. But in short - yes, it does have an impact. Is it a great impact - probably not, but keep in mind that anything you write about a kid, he has access to. That's kind of my rule of thumb, particularly because they know me, I don't post anything about the players or coaches that I wouldn't want them to read.

Fans are very important to the kids, there is no doubt about that. One of the coaches told me how they can get the loved from the middle aged men that are recruiting them - but what they really love is the students and fans to be really excited about them. It's just like taking a job - you want to go where you feel needed and welcomed, you don't want to go somewhere where you have a lukewarm feeling.

1. Recruit a quality coach with national prominence. (check)
2. Begin making the National tourney with regularity (check)
3. Improve recruiting (check)
4. Convince their fan base that this is happening (................) This could take some time....

I'd also like to add to this list:
5. Building a new practice facility - this is not only important to have this facility, but it shows a commitment to Gopher hoops, Coach Smith, and winning
6. Appreciate your fan base. I don't know about you - but it gets frustrating paying $35 for St. Cloud State, when you can scalp a ticket for $15 for a BT game. If your fans have fun at the games, and feel appreciated, they are more likely to stick around during the hard times.

I could probably add a lot more to the list, but I'd say these are the keys.

 

[dpodoll68]

It's as simple as percentages

There are 68 NCAA Football teams that play in a bowl game out of 119.

There are 65 teams that play in the NCAA Basketball Tournament out of 347

57.1% of Football teams make a bowl game
18.7% of Basketball teams make the NCAA tournament

So the Gophers Football team barely squeeking into a bowl game probably means they are about 50th in the country. The Basketball similarily were probably about the 50th best in the country but being 50th out of 119 is a lot different then 50th of 347...

No, it's not that simple.

If the 7th place team in the Summit League were as likely to make the tournament as the 7th place team in the Big Ten, your statistics would be true. Since we know that's not true, the supposition is false.

What's far more instructive is to draw from the sample size that actually makes the tournament every year, not set up a false dichotomy by saying that all 347 teams have a legitimate shot of making the tournament. In reality, most conferences are auto-bid only. We are not competing against Bethune-Cookman or South Carolina Upstate to make the tournament. We are competing against Washington St. and Auburn.

There are 31 auto-bids and 34 at-large bids every year. Realistically, 17 conferences will almost never get an at-large bid, meaning their constituent members are not part of the pool for at-large selections. I'm not going to take the time to add them up, but given that there are 32 "units" (conferences plus independents) and 347 teams, that works out to an average of 11 teams per conference, plus the independents. That already takes 181 {[(18 * 11) - 17 auto-bids] = 181} teams out of the equation.

So, in reality, the 166 (roughly; again, I'm not adding them up right now) teams that make up the BCS and mid-major conferences are in contention for the 34 at-large plus the other 14 auto-bids. That equals 48/166 = 28.9%. Statistically speaking, the Gophers enter the season with somewhere around a 30% chance of making the tournament based on their conference affiliation, not 18.7% as you say. (It's actually higher, really, when you factor in that the BCS conferences almost always have more at-larges than the mid-majors.)

For the same reasons, i.e. Florida Atlantic at 6-6 is not as likely as UCLA at 6-6 to make a bowl game, your football numbers aren't correct either. But the point I'm trying to make is that it's not just as simple as dividing potential spots by the overall pool. If it were, there would be no disparity between the larger and smaller conferences, and no incentive for teams to remain in the power conferences.