How good would we be if Nolen didn't get injured

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station19

station19

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After the PR tournament and into the season I think we were rated as high as 15. I think many people at time thought we would be a solid top ten team by the end of the year. Losing Al(and Devoe) obviously hurt big time.

Reusse was saying the other day that the Gophers would have won 1 or 2 more games with a healthy Nolen. What does everyone think.

I'm sure this will be followed with Reusse bashing, but that is not what is intended.
 

station19 said:
After the PR tournament and into the season I think we were rated as high as 15. I think many people at time thought we would be a solid top ten team by the end of the year. Losing Al(and Devoe) obviously hurt big time.

Reusse was saying the other day that the Gophers would have won 1 or 2 more games with a healthy Nolen. What does everyone think.

I'm sure this will be followed with Reusse bashing, but that is not what is intended.
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Gophers were 16-4 and rated Top 15 in late January.

There were 6 games (since) that were Gopher L but could have been W. At IU, at Penn St, at NWU and Illinois, Mich St, Mich at home. With a healthy Nolen, Gophers maybe get 4 or 5 more W in those 6 games. EVEN WITHOUT HIM at least 3 of those games could have been W.
 

I believe Al Nolen at full strength all season would have reversed 5 losses ... making us 22-7 currently and a sure thing for the NCAA Tournament.
 

Nolen was MVP...

Minimum: 4 more Ws with Nolen...perhaps as many as 6.

I am not sure there has been a player in recent Gopher history who meant more to his team (or was more under appreciated) than Al Nolen.
 

Minimum 10-8 in the Big Ten. Plus I am just looking at the last 4 games where they couldnt close it out.. with Al the Gophers close out most -not all- those games.
 


10, 11 or 12 conference wins, good for 4th place, a first-round BTT bye and a pretty good seed in the Tournament.
 

Block M said:
Minimum: 4 more Ws with Nolen...perhaps as many as 6.

I am not sure there has been a player in recent Gopher history who meant more to his team (or was more under appreciated) than Al Nolen.
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This.
 

Al's importance to the team

There was a long thread early in the season about which would hurt more, losing Blake, Trevor or Al to an injury. The predictions were split up amongst the three. We don't know how Trevor or Blake getting hurt would have affected the team, but it sure sucked with Al getting hurt.
 

Pat’s conclusion regarding Al’s contribution sounds very one dimensional.

Without Al, we have been forced to make a huge adjustment in the end of the season, which Tubby and the team so far have failed at. Such a failure, I think, was the key to the melt-down. With Al, we would not have been in the position to make such an adjustment and take the gamble with it.

I think it is far more probable that we would have won more than 3 games out of the last 9 with Al. But, Pat could be right as there is always a chance that a less likely outcome can occur.
 



The gophers would have won 11-13 games with Nolen. I don't think they would have lost to anyone except Ohio State at home (Including Virginia). I don't think they would have lost to Indiana on the road.
 

there's not doubt a good point guard would've changed things but how much? The rest of the guys played like c...p recently...The airball by sampson was symbolic of the season..
 


the 4-6 games estimate is about right. We'd be between 10-8 and 12-4 and debating whether we're getting 4-8 seed in the NCAA's.
 



my guess would be their final conference record would have been anyhere from 8-10 to 11-7 had there been a healthy Al Nolen.
 

Block M said:
Minimum: 4 more Ws with Nolen...perhaps as many as 6.

I am not sure there has been a player in recent Gopher history who meant more to his team (or was more under appreciated) than Al Nolen.
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Really? What if Al Nolen were healthy all year and Blake Hoffarber in a cast? Or Mbakwe? We have a team built with grossly one dimensional players and the loss of any of those three would have been an ugly blow to this team. I don't think Al is under appreciated. I think the opposite is true. Al is a nice player but he the best that can be said for him is that he is capable of getting the ball over the time line against almost any defender, didn't turn the ball over, and was able to get in the lane (but not necessarily result in points).
 


station19 said:
After the PR tournament and into the season I think we were rated as high as 15. I think many people at time thought we would be a solid top ten team by the end of the year. Losing Al(and Devoe) obviously hurt big time.

Reusse was saying the other day that the Gophers would have won 1 or 2 more games with a healthy Nolen. What does everyone think.

I'm sure this will be followed with Reusse bashing, but that is not what is intended.
Click to expand...

Who really knows? Gophers won the PR tournament, and had nice wins against two big name schools who happened to be struggling at the time. They also ran up expected victories over the victory fodder brought into the barn. Granted, ugly victories are better than pretty losses, but anybody watching those ooc games with a critical eye could see this team didn't have it all together and there were predictions for trouble in the Big 10. Does an average point guard really improve a team that has lost 9 out of 10 that much? Gophers might have been on the bubble with Al, but no sure lock for the tourney.
 


I think we could have beat Wisconsin on the road if Nolen was playing like he was against Purdue, and I wouldn't have been shocked at all if we won the last 6 or beat Ill or @indiana, but we probably would have dropped a couple in there.
 


Lincoln gopher said:
There was a long thread early in the season about which would hurt more, losing Blake, Trevor or Al to an injury. The predictions were split up amongst the three. We don't know how Trevor or Blake getting hurt would have affected the team, but it sure sucked with Al getting hurt.
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Losing any of those 3 would have been just as damaging. The Gophers could have actually won at least 3, and up to 6 of the games without Al, they just had ZERO luck.
 

Swede said:
Who really knows? Gophers won the PR tournament, and had nice wins against two big name schools who happened to be struggling at the time. They also ran up expected victories over the victory fodder brought into the barn. Granted, ugly victories are better than pretty losses, but anybody watching those ooc games with a critical eye could see this team didn't have it all together and there were predictions for trouble in the Big 10. Does an average point guard really improve a team that has lost 9 out of 10 that much? Gophers might have been on the bubble with Al, but no sure lock for the tourney.
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Certainly, the way they were squeaking out OOC victories (winning by less than 10 or 15 to teams that they should have blown out by 30 to 40, given their ranking), I was one of those who predicted trouble come Big 10 season. However, remember that even back then, either Nolen or Joseph was typically not playing, thus it always seemed like when they both started playing, the team would be all together. Truth be told, I still feel that way. There have been very few unluckier Gopher basketball teams that I've ever seen.
 

Unbelievable the overvaluing of Al Nolen. Yes, we would have been better but those saying he would have made a 5 game difference? Only a devout homer could think that. God love ya.
 

minngg said:
Unbelievable the overvaluing of Al Nolen. Yes, we would have been better but those saying he would have made a 5 game difference? Only a devout homer could think that. God love ya.
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With Al Nolen:
Beat North Carolina, West Virginia, and Purdue (4-3 in the BT)

Without Al Nolen:
Lose to Virginia and 9 out of 10 to end the season (2-9 in the BT)
 


This team was unbeaten against the RPI 50+ with Nolen
This team had 5 losses against the RPI 50+ without Nolen

This team played more games against the RPI 50+ with Nolen...so there was more chances for losses too.
 

I feel that our game against Purdue was by far the climax of this season. If that was what having a healthy team looked like minus Mo, I' say we would have won 6 more games. Purdue and Jajuan brought their A game that night and we were up to the challenge.
 

Swede said:
Who really knows? Gophers won the PR tournament, and had nice wins against two big name schools who happened to be struggling at the time. They also ran up expected victories over the victory fodder brought into the barn. Granted, ugly victories are better than pretty losses, but anybody watching those ooc games with a critical eye could see this team didn't have it all together and there were predictions for trouble in the Big 10. Does an average point guard really improve a team that has lost 9 out of 10 that much? Gophers might have been on the bubble with Al, but no sure lock for the tourney.
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After Devoe was gone, Al’s absence dictated recalibration with respect to half-court sets, defensive schemes and whole rotation for 40 minutes. Those are very difficult to do toward the end of the season (and Tubby has not done well with it, to say the least). In other words, Al’s impact is far more than simplistic addition/subtraction of a player or individual stat comparisons.

We were 14-4 (3-3 in the conference) before the Michigan game in which Al was injured. For the games played without Devoe before the injury of Al, we were 9-1 (3-1 in the conference beating Indiana, Purdue, and Iowa while losing to OSU). This is not to say we were better without Devoe. Yet, it indicates that we were still competitive with Al without Devoe.

Tubby hasn’t done well without Al. However, he would not have been forced to make such adjustments if Al had not been injured. Therefore, there is no reason to believe that the team would not have been as competitive for the last 10 games as it was before Al got injured (with Devoe or not).

I suspect Pat came to the conclusion via the similar reasoning that a slightly above average pg would not have helped much the team that has been terrible in the stretch. Too simplistic.
 

cncmin said:
Certainly, the way they were squeaking out OOC victories (winning by less than 10 or 15 to teams that they should have blown out by 30 to 40, given their ranking), I was one of those who predicted trouble come Big 10 season. However, remember that even back then, either Nolen or Joseph was typically not playing, thus it always seemed like when they both started playing, the team would be all together. Truth be told, I still feel that way. There have been very few unluckier Gopher basketball teams that I've ever seen.
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For once I would like to see Tubby coaching all the guys he's recruited and signed to the University of Minnesota. From year one of the Tubby tenure, we've experienced a progressive increase in the amount of bad mojo. I'm seriously hoping we've hit the crescendo now with this devastating year, and we get some good bounces from some quality players. Was Nolen valuable? Sheesh, I think the data presented in this thread confirms what a majority of us believe, and what the team believed this year: Al Nolen was the heart and soul of this squad, a floor leader who was known for tenacious D and a conservative but effective point guard with adequate offensive skills. God bless Hoff, but he was asked to do more than he was able to do this year. I loved watching him throughout his career. That Big Ten Tourney shot against Indiana is right up there with Wheeler's diving game-winner against NoDak in the Final Five as favorite Gopher sports memory of the last five years. What a crappy way to end a great Gopher career. Edit: What a crappy way to end NOLEN's Gopher career too, since this thread was ultimately about him! Altogether DISSATISFYING!

Please let 11-12 bring some good mojo to this squad.

Go Gophers!
 

minngg said:
Unbelievable the overvaluing of Al Nolen. Yes, we would have been better but those saying he would have made a 5 game difference? Only a devout homer could think that. God love ya.
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If you watch how this team broke down late in EACH AND EVERY game down the stretch, you're telling me a SENIOR point guard who can at the very minimum run the offense reasonably well, and actually can be a playmaker in the paint as well, and also hit the occasional huge three (like a game winner against the #8 team in the country) wouldn't have been the difference in probably at least 5 of these 9 losses? I struggle to believe otherwise actually, it's quite apparent that lack of guard play completely broke this squad, as lack of execution in the late minutes of a game is usually a blatant sign of insufficient guard play.

And again, I don't care whose fault it is, I'm just saying, that's what is going on right now. Al Nolen's injury was the final straw, as losing Devoe was passable as long as we still had our two senior guards. Even Cobbs would have helped a ton. But unfortunately, we'll be better next year, but we'll probably still see some late game lapses as the guards will still be quite young, unless whoever our JUCO guard that supposedly comes in can be a steadying influence and get the ball in the right places (in the paint) next season.
 

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