How do the Golden Gophers match up with the Hawkeyes?

[BleedGopher]

Per Carson:

How do the Golden Gophers match up with the Hawkeyes?​

Perhaps the question should be, “Which defense plays better?”

Both Iowa and Minnesota have defenses that are in the upper half of the Big Ten. Both programs have new quarterbacks, and the Hawkeyes hope running back Kamari Moulton can replicate the success of Kaleb Johnson, who now plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Taylor broke out as a star for Minnesota last year, finishing with 986 yards and 10 touchdowns and averaging 4.8 yards per rush. The biggest key for the Hawkeyes will be neutralizing him.

If they can do that, the Hawkeyes and Kirk Ferentz — the longest-tenured coach in NCAA Division I FBS football — should have the upper hand.

Iowa Hawkeyes 2025 Opponent Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers

The Golden Gophers haven't become a regular contender under P.J. Fleck, but they're coming off a respectable finish in 2024.

www.si.com

Go Gophers!!

 

[Bring back the Axe]

Depends on if PJ loosens up his ultraconservative death grip against them

 

[Some guy]

Depends on if PJ loosens up his ultraconservative death grip against them

The gophers threw the ball 36 times not counting sacks in 2019 vs 23 non sack runs

In 2020 the gophers threw 33 and non Morgan runs were 33 (I am not breaking down how many of the Morgan runs were called passes vs runs…but feel free, there were 7 for one yard).

In 2021 there were 33 passes and 47 non QB runs (4 QB runs and not sure which were called and which were called passes)

In 2022 there were 15 passes and 44 non QB runs

In 2023 there were 25 passes and 37 non QB runs

In 2024 there were 37 passes and 17 non QB runs


I am going to be honest.
We haven’t been that conservative vs Iowa and when we have been it’s gone BETTER

Since 2019 there has really been 2 blowout losses. In both games it was 50/50 or more called passes.

Since 2019 averaging 33.5 runs per matchup and 29.8 passes vs Iowa. And this is counting sacks as nothing rather than counting them as passes. This is 53% running.

 

[PMWinSTP]

I agree it always seems to come down to which defense plays better.

 

[GopherEnEspaña]

If we don't stop their run we don't beat them. We have two Senior LB's that have played a lot of snaps that need to put their big boy pants on and fill some gaps this year. I still remember how demoralizing that third quarter was last year.

 

[Some guy]

If we don't stop their run we don't beat them. We have two Senior LB's that have played a lot of snaps that need to put their big boy pants on and fill some gaps this year. I still remember how demoralizing that third quarter was last year.

To me, the third quarter really showed the inexperience of the DC last year

At halftime Iowa switched up run game patterns and was really just running counter variations successfully.
We never countered the counter (literally and figuratively).

Later in the year I thought he was better at countering the counters.

 

[Gophers1992]

The gophers threw the ball 36 times not counting sacks in 2019 vs 23 non sack runs

In 2020 the gophers threw 33 and non Morgan runs were 33 (I am not breaking down how many of the Morgan runs were called passes vs runs…but feel free, there were 7 for one yard).

In 2021 there were 33 passes and 47 non QB runs (4 QB runs and not sure which were called and which were called passes)

In 2022 there were 15 passes and 44 non QB runs

In 2023 there were 25 passes and 37 non QB runs

In 2024 there were 37 passes and 17 non QB runs


I am going to be honest.
We haven’t been that conservative vs Iowa and when we have been it’s gone BETTER

Since 2019 there has really been 2 blowout losses. In both games it was 50/50 or more called passes.

Since 2019 averaging 33.5 runs per matchup and 29.8 passes vs Iowa. And this is counting sacks as nothing rather than counting them as passes. This is 53% running.

Yeah I feel like that statement just gets thrown out as a lazy and thoughtless criticism. Not that conservatism only means running vs passing, but it's a lazy take. I don't think any of those losses have been due to being overly conservative. You could maybe argue 2021, but even then I don't agree.

 

[GopherEnEspaña]

To me, the third quarter really showed the inexperience of the DC last year

At halftime Iowa switched up run game patterns and was really just running counter variations successfully.
We never countered the counter (literally and figuratively).

Later in the year I thought he was better at countering the counters.

Well said. We were gashed multiple times last year on opening 3rd quarter drives.

 

[swede2]

The gophers threw the ball 36 times not counting sacks in 2019 vs 23 non sack runs

In 2020 the gophers threw 33 and non Morgan runs were 33 (I am not breaking down how many of the Morgan runs were called passes vs runs…but feel free, there were 7 for one yard).

In 2021 there were 33 passes and 47 non QB runs (4 QB runs and not sure which were called and which were called passes)

In 2022 there were 15 passes and 44 non QB runs

In 2023 there were 25 passes and 37 non QB runs

In 2024 there were 37 passes and 17 non QB runs


I am going to be honest.
We haven’t been that conservative vs Iowa and when we have been it’s gone BETTER

Since 2019 there has really been 2 blowout losses. In both games it was 50/50 or more called passes.

Since 2019 averaging 33.5 runs per matchup and 29.8 passes vs Iowa. And this is counting sacks as nothing rather than counting them as passes. This is 53% running.

I seem to recall last year that Iowa jumped out to a big lead rather early. I don't recall the other. But likely the game plan was the typical conservative game plan but falling behind fast necessitated a switch to a pass heavy effort.

Edit: My memory is faulty.

 

[Some guy]

I seem to recall last year that Iowa jumped out to a big lead rather early. I don't recall the other. But likely the game plan was the typical conservative game plan but falling behind fast necessitated a switch to a pass heavy effort.

You recall incorrectly

At the end of the first half Iowa had 7 points (and the 7 points were almost a direct result of an interception we threw!)
At the end of the first quarter Brosmer had 12 pass attempts
At halftime Brosmer had 26 pass attempts
in the second half we threw 12 and ran 7.

The problem is the game is the gophers only ran 19 plays in the second half. One of them was an interception.
The problem in the game was Iowa scored 24 points in the second half before the gophers had a play of 8+ yards.



I don’t understand why people just make stuff up to pretend we are more conservative than we are.

We are conservative but let’s live in reality here

 

[swede2]

If we don't stop their run we don't beat them. We have two Senior LB's that have played a lot of snaps that need to put their big boy pants on and fill some gaps this year. I still remember how demoralizing that third quarter was last year.

The new QB is also very mobile. He didn't have a ton of designed carries at SDSU, primarily because it wasn't necessary and when it was, the backup QB was an absolute truck. But when designed runs were called for him or if he was flushed out of the pocket, he was a very effective runner.

 

[Word]

The new QB is also very mobile. He didn't have a ton of designed carries at SDSU, primarily because it wasn't necessary and when it was, the backup QB was an absolute truck. But when designed runs were called for him or if he was flushed out of the pocket, he was a very effective runner.

Low 60s for career completion percentage at SDSU which is not great but is great for an Iowa QB. Curious to see how he will compare at Iowa. Looks like he can run though. On paper, he looks like perhaps the best Iowa QB since Beathard.

 

[swede2]

Low 60s for career completion percentage at SDSU which is not great but is great for an Iowa QB. Curious to see how he will compare at Iowa. Looks like he can run though. On paper, he looks like perhaps the best Iowa QB since Beathard.

I have no idea what Iowa has for pass catchers. In 2023, Gronowski had 2 skill position players and 2 offensive linemen who were on NFL rosters in 2024, and 2 more WRs on practice squads. Those receivers in particular covered up a few flaws in 2023 and prior. Last year with inexperienced pass catchers, he looked a bit more ordinary.

 

[BigTenGuy]

I agree it always seems to come down to which defense plays better.

Kicking game has frequently been a key difference in PJ versus Ferentz games.

 

[RememberMurray]

The gophers threw the ball 36 times not counting sacks in 2019 vs 23 non sack runs

In 2020 the gophers threw 33 and non Morgan runs were 33 (I am not breaking down how many of the Morgan runs were called passes vs runs…but feel free, there were 7 for one yard).

In 2021 there were 33 passes and 47 non QB runs (4 QB runs and not sure which were called and which were called passes)

In 2022 there were 15 passes and 44 non QB runs

In 2023 there were 25 passes and 37 non QB runs

In 2024 there were 37 passes and 17 non QB runs


I am going to be honest.
We haven’t been that conservative vs Iowa and when we have been it’s gone BETTER

Since 2019 there has really been 2 blowout losses. In both games it was 50/50 or more called passes.

Since 2019 averaging 33.5 runs per matchup and 29.8 passes vs Iowa. And this is counting sacks as nothing rather than counting them as passes. This is 53% running.

Thanks for bringing facts to the discussion. It's always good to be aware of objective reality, since perceptions are often skewed.

 

[Some guy]

Kicking game has frequently been a key difference in PJ versus Ferentz games.

Turnovers has been the key difference IMO. Especially in the close low scoring games. Other than 2021 the games have all followed a similar script. If Iowa doest

2024 31-14 Iowa Iowa +2
2023 12-10 Minnesota Minnesota +3
2022 13-10 Iowa Iowa +2
2021 27-22 Iowa Iowa -1 (the anomaly game)
2020 35-7 iowa iowa +1
2019 23-19 Iowa Iowa +1



in the close games 4/5 times the turnovers are the difference
In the blowouts they always are

 

[tjgopher]

The gophers threw the ball 36 times not counting sacks in 2019 vs 23 non sack runs

In 2020 the gophers threw 33 and non Morgan runs were 33 (I am not breaking down how many of the Morgan runs were called passes vs runs…but feel free, there were 7 for one yard).

In 2021 there were 33 passes and 47 non QB runs (4 QB runs and not sure which were called and which were called passes)

In 2022 there were 15 passes and 44 non QB runs

In 2023 there were 25 passes and 37 non QB runs

In 2024 there were 37 passes and 17 non QB runs


I am going to be honest.
We haven’t been that conservative vs Iowa and when we have been it’s gone BETTER

Since 2019 there has really been 2 blowout losses. In both games it was 50/50 or more called passes.

Since 2019 averaging 33.5 runs per matchup and 29.8 passes vs Iowa. And this is counting sacks as nothing rather than counting them as passes. This is 53% running.

Well, in 2019 we were down 20-3 early 2nd quarter, so there were more passes. Passing brought us back to almost win the game.

In 2020, we were 14-0 at half, so more passes.

In close games, we have absolutely not passed enough.

 

[RememberMurray]

I seem to recall last year that Iowa jumped out to a big lead rather early. I don't recall the other. But likely the game plan was the typical conservative game plan but falling behind fast necessitated a switch to a pass heavy effort.

Edit: My memory is faulty.

Yes it is.

Minnesota held a lead at halftime.

 

[RememberMurray]

Well, in 2019 we were down 20-3 early 2nd quarter, so there were more passes. Passing brought us back to almost win the game.

In 2020, we were 14-0 at half, so more passes.

In close games, we have absolutely not passed enough.

Iowa's defenses are always really, really good at creating turnovers. It's how Iowa manages to win many of their games, despite the fact that their offense has often been pretty bad.

To mindlessly throw the ball against the Hawkeyes, just for the sake of throwing, is not a good plan.

 

[BigTenGuy]

Turnovers has been the key difference IMO. Especially in the close low scoring games. Other than 2021 the games have all followed a similar script. If Iowa doest

2024 31-14 Iowa Iowa +2
2023 12-10 Minnesota Minnesota +3
2022 13-10 Iowa Iowa +2
2021 27-22 Iowa Iowa -1 (the anomaly game)
2020 35-7 iowa iowa +1
2019 23-19 Iowa Iowa +1



in the close games 4/5 times the turnovers are the difference
In the blowouts they always are

Agree turnovers have been huge. But so has the kicking game, including the touchdowns scored by Iowa on short fields after long field goal misses by the Gophers. Consider 2019, 2021 and 2022. In each of these years Iowa is perfect in FG attempts, and the Gophers miss 1 FG per year, 2 of which were long FG misses helping lead to ensuing Iowa TDs.

2019-Gophers miss a long first half FG (50 yards);Iowa scores TD on next possession.

Gophers miss a 4th quarter XP, making it a 4-point game, meaning a TD is needed on Gophers last possession.

Iowa makes its only FG attempt on possession starting at Gopher 39, after 15-yard Gopher penalty on punt.

2021-Gophers have long FG blocked; Iowa scores TD on ensuing possession.

Iowa makes both of its FG attempts, including a 50-yarder.

2022- Iowa makes both of its FG attempts. Gophers miss a 34 yd FG.

 

[Some guy]

Agree turnovers have been huge. But so has the kicking game, including the touchdowns scored by Iowa on short fields after long field goal misses by the Gophers. Consider 2019, 2021 and 2022. In each of these years Iowa is perfect in FG attempts, and the Gophers miss 1 FG per year, 2 of which were long FG misses helping lead to ensuing Iowa TDs.

2019-Gophers miss a long first half FG (50 yards);Iowa scores TD on next possession.

Gophers miss a 4th quarter XP, making it a 4-point game, meaning a TD is needed on Gophers last possession.

Iowa makes its only FG attempt on possession starting at Gopher 39, after 15-yard Gopher penalty on punt.

2021-Gophers have long FG blocked; Iowa scores TD on ensuing possession.

Iowa makes both of its FG attempts, including a 50-yarder.

2022- Iowa makes both of its FG attempts. Gophers miss a 34 yd FG.

Which is funny because a lot of people want to blame flecks conservatism but he probably should’ve punted on those long field goals in 2019 and 2021


Fleck is too aggressive!

 

[Gophers1992]

Well, in 2019 we were down 20-3 early 2nd quarter, so there were more passes. Passing brought us back to almost win the game.

In 2020, we were 14-0 at half, so more passes.

In close games, we have absolutely not passed enough.

Ok but in 2022 we ran for over 300 yards and Mo was absolutely gashing them in the second half while we had a freshman QB making his 3rd career start against one of the best defenses in the country in freezing cold weather, so any argument that we should have passed more in that game would be foolish. 2023 we ended up winning so that means the only reasonable argument we should have passed more is in 2021 but also we gained over 400 yards in that game so it's hard to say our offense wasn't effective regardless of the run/pass mix.

I'm not sure your argument holds up to any scrutiny, respectfully.

 

[RememberMurray]

Ok but in 2022 we ran for over 300 yards and Mo was absolutely gashing them in the second half while we had a freshman QB making his 3rd career start against one of the best defenses in the country in freezing cold weather, so any argument that we should have passed more in that game would be foolish. 2023 we ended up winning so that means the only reasonable argument we should have passed more is in 2021 but also we gained over 400 yards in that game so it's hard to say our offense wasn't effective regardless of the run/pass mix.

I'm not sure your argument holds up to any scrutiny, respectfully.

You're right. His argument doesn't hold up.

Mo Ibrahim was chewing them up in that game.
Athan Kaliakmanis was playing QB for Minnesota.
More passes? Uhhh... no.

Also, I guarantee you one thing: if Fleck had called for more passing in that game and there would have been a strip sack of the Gopher QB or an INT leading to an Iowa score the very same fans who are screaming for more passes would have been absolutely apoplectic that Fleck and the Gophers hadn't continued to feed the ball to Mo.

 

[Some guy]

Well, in 2019 we were down 20-3 early 2nd quarter, so there were more passes. Passing brought us back to almost win the game.

In 2020, we were 14-0 at half, so more passes.

In close games, we have absolutely not passed enough.

24 of 37 first half plays vs Iowa in 2019 were called passes.
Thats 24 called passes 13 called runs
In the first two drives 13 passes 8 runs

The team threw the ball 61% of the time in the game.
65% of the time in the first half.
THEY THREW THE BALL LESS LATER IN THE GAME. The exact opposite of your argument is true.



Fleck is conservative but you don’t just get to make stuff up.

Espn posts play by play of every game. This is all checkable. Your vibe that we ran too much doesn’t match the play calls.


Don’t know if you are lying intentionally or not but remember there is like documentation of these games

 

[Bring back the Axe]

The gophers threw the ball 36 times not counting sacks in 2019 vs 23 non sack runs

In 2020 the gophers threw 33 and non Morgan runs were 33 (I am not breaking down how many of the Morgan runs were called passes vs runs…but feel free, there were 7 for one yard).

In 2021 there were 33 passes and 47 non QB runs (4 QB runs and not sure which were called and which were called passes)

In 2022 there were 15 passes and 44 non QB runs

In 2023 there were 25 passes and 37 non QB runs

In 2024 there were 37 passes and 17 non QB runs


I am going to be honest.
We haven’t been that conservative vs Iowa and when we have been it’s gone BETTER

Since 2019 there has really been 2 blowout losses. In both games it was 50/50 or more called passes.

Since 2019 averaging 33.5 runs per matchup and 29.8 passes vs Iowa. And this is counting sacks as nothing rather than counting them as passes. This is 53% running.

Duly noted, and thanks for the breakdown

but the fact is we're one faulty fair catch signal away from being 0-8 against Iowa under PJ and its not just because they've been that much better than us. He gets super tight in game decisions clock management and generally plays not to lose vs Iowa. We should probably have 2-3 wins more against them in his tenure IMO

 

[Some guy]

Duly noted, and thanks for the breakdown

but the fact is we're one faulty fair catch signal away from being 0-8 against Iowa under PJ and its not just because they've been that much better than us. He gets super tight in game decisions clock management and generally plays not to lose vs Iowa. We should probably have 2-3 wins more against them in his tenure IMO

Correct.
They’re also one caught ball by the best WR in gopher history and one non fumble by one of the most secure ball security RBs in gopher history from being 3-5. If they come out running last year instead of throwing the first drive maybe they don’t throw a pick and are up 14-0 instead of 14-7 at half. And now you’re 4-4. I guess running Mo while in field goal range for the win was tight and to lose. I guess throwing to TJ down 4 in the redzone was playing to lose.

So rather than say almost 0-8 or almost 3-5 prefer to Live in the reality of 1-7.
Likewise, I prefer to live in the reality of not making stuff up like he only runs the ball and turtles. Because sometimes he is too aggressive and throws to set up Iowa touchdowns or attempts long field goals instead of punts to set up Iowa touchdowns



I go to the doctor with a minor fracture in my leg.
One doctor tells me to walk it off.
The other doctor tells me to amputate


Just because the doctor that tells me to amputate is wrong doesn’t mean the doctor who said walk it off is right. They’re both losses



“I know you just hit me with a bunch of stuff that actually happened but I feel the opposite and have nothing to back up my opinion”
-bring back the axe guy

 

[tjgopher]

24 of 37 first half plays vs Iowa in 2019 were called passes.
Thats 24 called passes 13 called runs
In the first two drives 13 passes 8 runs

The team threw the ball 61% of the time in the game.
65% of the time in the first half.
THEY THREW THE BALL LESS LATER. The exact opposite of your argument is true



Fleck is conservative but you don’t just get to make stuff up.

Espn posts play by play of every game. This is all checkable. Your vibe that we ran too much doesn’t match the play calls.


Don’t know if you are lying intentionally or not but remember there is like documentation of these games

Intentionally lying. I had no idea you would be able to find documentation of the game. Damn.

 

[Some guy]

Intentionally lying. I had no idea you would be able to find documentation of the game. Damn.

Why would you just make something up when you don’t know what you’re talking about?
I don’t get it

I am going to start going into threads talking about how much wacker ran the ball in 1992

 

[tjgopher]

Why would you just make something up when you don’t know what you’re talking about?
I don’t get it

I am going to start going into threads talking about how much wacker ran the ball in 1992

First of all, obviously I know you can find documentation and obviously I didn't intentionally lie.

For clarification:

I said:

"in 2019 we were down 20-3 early 2nd quarter so there were more passes. Passing brought us back to almost win the game.

In 2020, we were down 14-0 at half, so more passes."

I didn't mean there were more passes than runs (that almost never happens with Minnesota).

Clearly, as your well-researched post showed, Minnesota runs the ball a lot against Iowa. I was saying they got behind and threw more passes than the usual conservative approach against Iowa. And in 2019, it nearly brought us back. Tanner Morgan threw for 369 yards against a defense that didn't allow a lot of offense.

PJ is 1-8 against Iowa. He has been mostly conservative.

I mean go ahead and keep doing in.

Anyone who follows Iowa football, knows that team almost never loses to teams who are run-first conservative outfits. But, if you want to keep banging our head against the wall, let's do it.

 

[tjgopher]

Ok but in 2022 we ran for over 300 yards and Mo was absolutely gashing them in the second half while we had a freshman QB making his 3rd career start against one of the best defenses in the country in freezing cold weather, so any argument that we should have passed more in that game would be foolish. 2023 we ended up winning so that means the only reasonable argument we should have passed more is in 2021 but also we gained over 400 yards in that game so it's hard to say our offense wasn't effective regardless of the run/pass mix.

I'm not sure your argument holds up to any scrutiny, respectfully.

Or, hear me out....maybe, just maybe, the freshman QB in 2021 gets RPO chance and finds a guy like say, oh, Lemeke Brockington, for a 44-yard touchdown and we beat the hated Hawkeyes. No one seemed to complain when he did that in Madison. No was was saying we should run more in that game.

Or, maybe, just maybe, one deep shot hits in 2023 and we don't have to even sweat out the invalid fair catch. Just maybe.

That's what makes the "what if" game so fun.

Paper tells only part of the story and it certainly isn't 100% causation.

It's fine, we can agree to disagree.

I was hoping to add some context, certainly didn't mean to have a bunch of responses.

I am in the camp PJ needs to be more aggressive to beat Iowa more consistently. If others disagree, then so be it. I can live with my opinion and place my head on my pillow tonight and sleep just fine.