Hodger's Final "Field of 65" Projection for 2009

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SelectionSunday

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Here it is, the final projection, the grand finale, the big enchilada, the last stand, the final countdown. Though there still are some games to be played, everything's pretty much set.

I'll start by saying the Gophers are in. They're not even one of my "last 4 in." Those honors go to (in order) Maryland, Wisconsin, Arizona and St. Mary's. There is only one contingency game that can shrink the bubble, Mississippi State vs. Tennessee tomorrow. If Mississippi State beats Tennessee in the SEC title game, the Bulldogs will replace St. Mary's in my bracket.

A couple thoughts about the Gophers. Through Friday, the Gophers' at-large resume remained solid (when stacked up vs. other bubble teams) with these numbers: 5-8 vs. the RPI top 50; 9-10 vs. the RPI top 100; a 6-7 road/neutral record; and 3 wins vs. automatic NCAA qualifiers (Cornell, Louisville, North Dakota State). The Gophers can add a fourth if Ohio State wins the Big Ten Tournament championship Sunday.

When it got right down to the nitty gritty with regards to the Gophers, in my mind Louisville was the gift that kept on giving the whole year (Christmas Vacation reference to Cousin Eddie & the jelly of the month club intended). Though overall their nonconference schedule was weak (Cornell & NDSU helped salvage it), I just couldn't envision the committee leaving out a bubble team with a solid resume which included a neutral-site win over the regular season and tournament champion (Louisville) of what is generally considered the best conference (Big East) in the land. Bluntly, absent that win over Louisville, I don't think the Gophers are even close to a bid. That's how significant it was.

Another less important but still meaningful thing to remember about the Gophers' at-large resume? They didn't have a single loss outside of the top 100 of the RPI. Not one. That helps when you consider all three of the Big 10's other bubble teams (Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin) all lost to Iowa (101+ RPI) on the road, something the Gophers managed to avoid.

For the record, I've been projecting the at-larges since the 1991-92 season. I've correctly identified 540 of 578 at-larges, a 93.4% clip. In the past five seasons, I'm at 159 of 170 (93.5%). Only on one occasion was I able to get all 34 at-larges correct. I've never had less than 30 of the 34 correct. Here's a breakdown (you can trust me):

1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 (perfect)
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: ?????

All RPI's are through Saturday's games. So without further ado. ...

FINAL FIELD OF 65 FOR 2008-09 (March 15, 1:07 a.m. ET)
America East (1): Binghamton (88)

ACC (7): Duke (2), North Carolina (3), Florida State (14), Wake Forest (16), Clemson (28), Maryland (55), Boston College (60)

Atlantic Sun (1): East Tennessee State (116)

Atlantic 10 (3): Xavier (17), Dayton (29), Temple (31)

Big East (7): Pitt (1), Louisville (4), UConn (8), Syracuse (12), Villanova (13), West Virginia (21), Marquette (34)

Big Sky (1): Portland State (114)

Big South (1): Radford (131)

Big 10 (7): Michigan State (5), Illinois (22), Purdue (25), Ohio State (27), GOPHERS (42), Michigan (44), Wisconsin (45)

Big 12 (6): Oklahoma (6), Mizzou (10), Kansas (11), Oklahoma State (20), Texas A&M (36), Texas (41)

Big West (1): Cal State Northridge (127)

Colonial (1): VCU (50)

Conference USA (1): Memphis (7)

Horizon (2): Butler (24), Cleveland State (53)

Ivy (1): Cornell (115)

Metro Atlantic (1): Siena (19)

MAC (1): Akron (99)

MEAC (1): Morgan State (130)

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa (59)

Mountain West (2): Utah (9), BYU (30)

Northeast (1): Robert Morris (109)

Ohio Valley (1): Morehead State (141)

Pac 10 (6): Washington (15), Arizona State (32), UCLA (33), USC (38), Cal (39), Arizona (62)

Patriot (1): American (73)

SEC (2): Tennessee (18), LSU (37)

Southern (1): Chattanooga (174)

Southland (1): Stephen F. Austin (79)/Texas-San Antonio (184) winner today

SWAC (1): Alabama State (179)

Summit (1): North Dakota State (87)

Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky (43)

West Coast (2): Gonzaga (26), ****St. Mary's (48)

WAC (1): Utah State (23)

****At-Large Contingency: If Mississippi State defeats Tennessee on Sunday in the SEC title game, the Bulldogs will replace St. Mary's in my bracket.

Last 4 In (strongest to weakest): Maryland (55), Wisconsin (45), Arizona (62), St. Mary's (48)

First 4 Out (strongest to weakest): Creighton (40), San Diego State (35), Penn State (70), Auburn (63)

Non-BCS At-Larges (5): Xavier (17), Butler (24), Dayton (29), BYU (30), St. Mary's (48)
 

So what you're saying is you really haven't improved in all this time? that's ok, you do a hell of a job.
 

Great job as always. Tomorrow it will be a joy to watch the selection show with more excitement than trepidation. Thanks.
 

Great analysis. I think I trust yours as much as any out there outside of Lunardi. I have to think either Creighton or SDSU finds thier way in. Ony 5 non-BCS at large bids is awfully thin and I think the Committee likes to reward the mid-majors as much as possible. And even though I know they don't deserve a 3rd bid, I just have an awfullly hard time believing that the SEC will only get two while their commisioner heads the selection committee. So I guess I would add SDSU and Auburn and remove Arizona and St. Mary's at the end of the day. (I guess that still leaves only 5 non-BCS at large but nevertheless.)
 

SS- thank you! I can't even tell you haw many times I have referred to your daily charts! In any years that you charted "last four in" have any of your misses fallen outside of that group-- in other words from a team you felt was in solidly??
 


Just wanted to say nice work. I read this religiously. Wow, is this a lot more fun than the last several years though!
 


Thanks a lot SS. I, too, have referenced your breakdowns many times!!
 

Great breakdown. You are rock solid.

I think that San Diego St might sneak in over Arizona, just my feeling based on the way both teams ended the year. SDSU had a nice run at the end, including a tough win over UNLV in what was more or less a home game for them in the conf. tourney. There have been a lot of strong cases made for Zona. I just don't know if they did enough. I think they and St. Mary's SHOULD be feeling the most nervous if Miss St wins.

However, maybe its just me, but I am getting the feeling like St. Mary's will get in, despite their weak numbers, mainly because of the Mills injury love affair thing the media has going. I dont think the committee wants them out. Obviously, thats just a feeling.
 



I would also like to hear your thoughts on BC...61 RPI, 70 SOS, that is fairly weak, big wins over UNC, Duke and FSU, but they also have a bad losses, home to Harvard. I am not sure why they are considered a lock at this point, should they be sweating?
 

To echo everyone else, great job SS, the work you put into this is really appreciated.
 

Hodger. Top notch as usual.

Cannot see a lot to disagree with here...my guess is that perhaps Creighton or SD State sneaks into the bracket. I also have a sneaky feeling that Wisky may be the last team in right now and Miss St could knock them out.
 

Answers

I appreciate all the kind thoughts. I really do. I'm glad that some of you find this useful. Some quick thoughts on your questions.

(1) Picking the last few at-larges (specifically deciding among Arizona, San Diego State & St. Mary's)?

No doubt about it, these 3 teams were among the final few teams I really had to break down. I really did have a hard time leaving San Diego State out. The Aztecs finished strong in what I think is a good & improved league (Mountain West), including the aforementioned road win at UNLV (and a 3-0 sweep of the Rebels) in the MWC quarterfinals. But in their case, head to head really came into play for earning a bid. As fate would have it, the Aztecs played both Arizona & St. Mary's, teams they were sharing the "ultimate" bubble with. The results? They lost to both, so I left them out.

Arizona? Despite a RPI in the 60's, it pretty much came down to I couldn't justify leaving out a team that had wins over (among others) Gonzaga, Kansas, San Diego State, UCLA and Pac 10 champion Washington. Yes, the Wildcats stumbled down the stretch (5-7 last 12), but committee chairman Mike Slive said earlier that the committee would look at a a team's entire body of work, not emphasizing late-season wins any more than important early-season (read: nonconference) wins. So I took his word for it.

As for St. Mary's, my last team in (pending LSU/Mississippi State) was a total gut feeling. I agree with those who question the Gaels' resume. It's among the weakest -- if not the weakest -- of at-larges I selected. But I went with my gut that the committee will view them (with Mills) as a dangerous NCAA quality team. And it didn't hurt that a couple of their quality wins were vs. 29-game winner & WAC champion Utah State (playing without Mills) in the Bracket Busters and, more importantly, San Diego State on a neutral floor.

(2) Thoughts on Boston College.
I just couldn't leave out a team that had among its key wins North Carolina (in Chapel Hill), Duke, Florida State and a win at bubbler Maryland. Yes, the Eagles had some stinkers (Harvard), but they've proven they can compete with the best teams.

(3) In any years that you charted "last four in" have any of your misses fallen outside of that group. ... in other words from a team you felt was in solidly?"

BGA, yes I'm sure that's happened before, but I just can't remember a specific case. I'm like every other Gopher fan today, I'm apprehensive about The Selection Show despite my confidence the Gophers are 5-6 spots removed from the true cut line. I was crushed in '93 when the Gophers didn't get in (thought they had safely earned a bid) but not crushed in '96 because despite their strong finish I thought they hadn't done enough. Ya' just never know. As always, the committee as a group may see things differently than I do.
 



Nice job (as always) Hodger.

I noted that Palm has Creighton in the tourney (#10 seed no less -- UNI gets #12) and you have them as one of the first four out. Despite my general bias for the Missouri Valley Conference, I have to agree with you. While Creighton was "on the bubble" in a number of scenarios, I had a hard time justifying it -- maybe Creighton let me down in this year's PPD --
whistilin.gif


The MVC was a topsy-turvy conference this year. Hope next year shows an improvement. Just 39 more years to go for Drake to return to the Dance.
 


Great job, SS. I've showed your predictions to other folks (non-Gopher types), who now religiously lurk your posts!
 

Gopher-Related Question, Hodger

What do you make of the uncomfortable political situation the selection committee would/will be in if they select Minnesota over another Big Ten team with a superior league record (Penn State, 10-8)? I know this happens from time to time, but it's never a popular move to place RPI and other numbers above league record. My fear is that, in order to leave PSU out, they'll also have to sacrifice the Gophers up due to political reality.
 

Penn State played Iowa twice; we only played them once. With the unbalanced schedule, the conference records aren't quite as important. In 2005, Iowa was 7-9 and got in over Indiana who was 10-6 I believe. Conference record isn't as important as one might think.
 

gophersfan783 said:
Penn State played Iowa twice; we only played them once. With the unbalanced schedule, the conference records aren't quite as important. In 2005, Iowa was 7-9 and got in over Indiana who was 10-6 I believe. Conference record isn't as important as one might think.
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Totally agree. Ever since the era of unbalanced schedule, conference record is only one criteria. Our non-conference was much better then PSU and we played a tougher set of games in conference, so the fact that they finished one game ahead of us is a wash. If PSU gets in over us with a 60's RPI I will be livid.
 

Regarding St. Mary's & Penn State

Regarding St. Mary's, I agree with Dinkytowner when he questions St. Mary's credentials. I said as much in my explanation of my final few teams in. As I said, I'm making a gut call that the Gaels will make the field as the last team in, unless of course Mississippi State beats Tennessee.

As for Penn State, I don't put a lot of value in conference record in conferences where you don't play everyone twice. All conference schedules aren't created equal. There have been plenty of cases where the committee has selected a team with a worse conference record than a team from the same conference that was left out. In the end, despite a stellar number of top-50 wins (6) among all the bubble teams, I left Penn State out because of its horrific (much worse than the Gophers') nonconference schedule.

I will say this. ... if you see Penn State's name come up early in the Selection Show, be afraid, be very afraid. That probably wouldn't bode well for the Gophers' name appearing later on.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Regarding St. Mary's, I agree with Dinkytowner when he questions St. Mary's credentials. I said as much in my explanation of my final few teams in. As I said, I'm making a gut call that the Gaels will make the field as the last team in, unless of course Mississippi State beats Tennessee.

As for Penn State, I don't put a lot of value in conference record in conferences where you don't play everyone twice. All conference schedules aren't created equal. There have been plenty of cases where the committee has selected a team with a worse conference record than a team from the same conference that was left out. In the end, despite a stellar number of top-50 wins (6) among all the bubble teams, I left Penn State out because of its horrific (much worse than the Gophers') nonconference schedule.

I will say this. ... if you see Penn State's name come up early in the Selection Show, be afraid, be very afraid. That probably wouldn't bode well for the Gophers' name appearing later on.
Click to expand...

:eek::eek::eek:
 

SelectionSunday said:
I will say this. ... if you see Penn State's name come up early in the Selection Show, be afraid, be very afraid. That probably wouldn't bode well for the Gophers' name appearing later on.
Click to expand...
Seriously?!? Wouldn't it just mean we're both in? I haven't seen one person have PSU over us in any bracket...that would be unbelievable if they put them in over us...
 

Awesome job as usual, Hodger. Have you ever thought about doing a full bracket with seeding? I'd find it interesting to see how you'd stack up against the other bracketologists around the net.
 

Thank You......I hope that this continues to be a "labor of love" for you and you never grow tired of it....congrats on your solid work....
 

Good work as usual SS.

I sit here on Sunday morning not sure whether the Gophers are in.

I think they probably are, but I won't be surprised with any outcome. The reality is that arguments can be made for and against many teams near the bottom of the bubble -- the Gophers included. What we don't know, however, is what the committee truly values. There are certainly things that everyone knows they like, but when it comes down to the final five or so spots, we don't know what will ultimately make those final decisions.

The Gophers had a number of opportunities to avoid the long Sunday wait, but failed to convert. In a little more than five hours, we'll know for sure.
 

ShowinGoldyLove said:
Seriously?!? Wouldn't it just mean we're both in? I haven't seen one person have PSU over us in any bracket...that would be unbelievable if they put them in over us...
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^^^^This right? I would think St. Mary's, Creighton, SDSU, Arizona would all hate to see an early PSU more than us?
 

Bad Gopher said:
What do you make of the uncomfortable political situation the selection committee would/will be in if they select Minnesota over another Big Ten team with a superior league record (Penn State, 10-8)? I know this happens from time to time, but it's never a popular move to place RPI and other numbers above league record. My fear is that, in order to leave PSU out, they'll also have to sacrifice the Gophers up due to political reality.
Click to expand...

Penn St has themselves to blame (as would we if left out btw) if they don't make it. They had Temple and Dayton on the schedule and lost to both. One of those wins vs. tourney teams and they are a lock.
 

No way PSU is in before Minnesota. I would lose faith in the system if that were the case. I trust SS and if he has us in, we are in. Now it would be nice if Tennessee can pull out their game vs. Miss. St. Unfortunately, they are down by 4 with just over 1:00 left.
 

I think you nailed it.

Great job. You should start your own bracketology website.
 


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