History, Expectations and Patience

[Go Gophers Rah]

I think most of us would agree on our history:

• We haven't won a league championship for 42 years.
• We haven't come in 2nd in the conference during that time period either.
• The last time we came in 3rd was 1986 (23 years ago) and that was with a 5-3 record.
• Since the last time we came in 3rd, Indiana has come in 3rd twice.
• Other than the 1960 and 1961 Rose Bowls, we have never been to a January bowl.
• Our high-water mark during the past 40 years has been 5-3 conference records in 1986, 1999 and 2003.
• While Northwestern and Illinois have both had worse losing streaks than us in the past 25 years, they have each won an outright Big Ten title and at least 1 shared title in that time period.
• I would say that over the past 20-25 years, Minnesota and Indiana have been the 2 worst Big Ten teams -this is where I would expect to see some disagreement.
• Despite this fact, we have a stronger fanbase than Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois and equal to Purdue.

I think most of us can agree on our immediate goal:

• Play in a January Bowl (BCS, Cap One or Outback).
• This will likely require a 6-2 conference record (although a 5-3 team such as this year's Wisconsin could make it).

The thing that there is disagreement on is how patient should we be in acheiving that goal:

• Glen Mason was fired because it was becoming apparent that he would not acheive that goal.
• Regardless of who was hired in January 2007, what would the realistic goal for a January bowl have been at that time?
• 2 years? 3 years? 4 years? 5 years?
• If we were to fire Brewster today, how much time would we allow before firing his successor for not reaching a January bowl?
• 2 years? 3 years? 4 years? 5 years?
• I am not trying to be provocative with this question, nor is it rhetorical.
• My opinion is that a coach (whether Brewster or his successor) whould be given 5 years to reach a January bowl unless there is an obvious regression (0-8, 3-5 and 3-5 in BT play do not reflect a regression to me) or there are significant off-field problems.

Do people disagree with me on the history or the goal or the timeframe for achieving the goal?

I'm interested in real dialog here, not easy put-downs by one side of the fire-Brew contingent or the other.

 

[Schnoodler]

I agree. I'm not sure we've been in the bottom two very often, but if you look at the full body of work I can't substantially argue that we don't belong there.

I'm not one who believes in time tables. I simply believe you improve your program and results will follow. It's Maturi's job to determine if the program has improved this year and if it's likely to improve next. Note to idiots: this has nothing to do with the W/L record or trophy games. It requires analysis and a great understanding of the breadth of the entire program. I would say the program over all is greatly improving year to year. Unfortunately the one negative is a critical component. The entire offense, most notably the OC position, and Brew is all in on that decision. From the outside looking in I saw nothing that suggests Fisch gets it or will. Supposedly he's smart and should be able to adjust, and hopefully the closer inside view creates a different opinion for Maturi than it does from my lazy-boy.

 

[Gopher Bandanna Guy]

Nicely laid out GG Rah. My only qualm with the history is that I think Illinois' fanbase is pretty stout. Much better than Purdue's or ours I'd say, but I could be wrong. Definitely agree on the immediate goal, but with the long term goal being B10 Championship and Rose Bowl.

I think Mason was fired in large part because his teams seemed to have a terrible history in melting down late in games that were very winable (which ties directly into his inability to get us to a Jan 1 bowl). The Texas Tech game was simply the straw that broke the camel's back on letting teams steal wins from us.

Were Brewster fired tomorrow - I'd say 2015 is the earliest we could expect a Jan 1 bowl game. Agree with you on your last bullet point - 5 years is the right amount of time. With that, at least we've got 4+ of his recruiting classes in house, which would keep the cupboard stocked for his successor in terms of talent.

Personally, I'd like to give him the full 5 years for that reason alone. I would like to see him bring in a more seasoned offensive coordinator though (what's Mitch Browning doing these days?), and dump Fisch now. That's a gamble too, but in my opinion, a minor one, as a new guy can't really get any less production out of the offense than Fisch did. Right? I surely hope so...

 

[Schnoodler]

I think if you could keep the same scheme, pro style. I don't think it's a step backwards at all, if the replacement is solid.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

Given our turnover in coordinators, I would normally disagree with firing Fisch.

BUT, he has been a disaster! I'm not sure of Tim Davis' role either. He was brought in to coach the offensive line play and running game. That hasn't turned out too well either.

If there is a great OC just sitting around out there, I think a 3rd OC in 4 years might be better than a 2nd year of Fisch/Davis.

 

[Gopher Bandanna Guy]

I think if you could keep the same scheme, pro style. I don't think it's a step backwards at all, if the replacement is solid.

You are probably right. So in essence, if we keep the same scheme,etc., we'll need to find a coordinator who fits that mold and knows that offense. We can't have Brewster hire a 'square peg to fit in a round hole' if I can use the cliche. It might limit us in who we can bring in though. How much? I have NO idea. Its worth looking into though...

 

[Gopher Bandanna Guy]

Given our turnover in coordinators, I would normally disagree with firing Fisch.

BUT, he has been a disaster! I'm not sure of Tim Davis' role either. He was brought in to coach the offensive line play and running game. That hasn't turned out too well either.

If there is a great OC just sitting around out there, I think a 3rd OC in 4 years might be better than a 2nd year of Fisch/Davis.

I agree. My concern is we pull in another Ted Roof though, who succeeds for us, but uses us as a springboard to bigger and better things. And if Brewster's tenure only lasts thru this next season (surely a possibility), then it might be tough to finds somebody willing to stay in Minneapolis for the long term, only to be out of a job at the end of 2010. Tough spot.

 

[BarnBoy]

Go Gophers Rah -

Great analysis. I really appreciate the levelheadedness. I think to some extent that our strength of schedule really hurt us this year. We played some decent teams. Combine that with the fact that we blew the Illinois game and didn't put South Dakota State away, and you have a pretty bitter taste in your mouth.

I am never one to play the "what if" game, but to me the two games that really got away from us are the CAL game and the Illinois game. Let's say we win those two games. Now we are 8-4, (4-4) and looking A LOT different.

Teams that amass great records generally win most of the close games. We didn't do that.

I think at the end of the day, what bothers me is the absence of a signature win. Heck, I would even say that Northwestern's win over WI this weekend was signature. As a fan, I really just want a couple of those a year. The "any given Saturday" thing. Had some magic against Syracuse. Had a couple of balls bounce our way against Air Force.

I am neither "fire Brewster" nor "Brewster is the answer" guy. Just the "boring" in the middle guy. Other people can figure that out. I am too busy with a 10 month old and work. I just want to turn on the TV and see some good games.

Love the Gophers to death, saw some glimpses of hope this year, and also saw some bone-headed plays and calls.

Thanks for your analysis.

 

[NewEngland_Gold]

Thoughtful post.

Since we are all speculating about the future here and there are so many moving parts, it's reasonable to assume there will be a good deal of disagreement on many issues because outcomes are rather uncertain given the nature of the moving parts.

That said, many here...myself included...feel that Brewster should be given a minimum of five years to achieve some of his objectives: annual high-level recruiting; at some point in that time frame, compete realistically for a BT title; a Jan Bowl-preferably Rose; a D capable of dominating BT opponents, a BT leader in STs and strong depth throughout the team. O remains a wild card, but he wants a consistent pro-style, run-centric flavor.

No one here seems to disagree much with those HCing goals.

Most of the Holer disagreement seems to center around the timing to fulfill those goals.

Based on what most are posting here, the guy in charge of Brew's fate...his boss AD Joel M...seems to be saying that he has the patience for a 5-year run given the fact that he hired a person with no coordinator or HCing experience at the collegiate level.

To be fair, JM has given himself some wiggle room by hinting that he might revisit that time frame if the wheels really came off Brew's wagon. So far, there is no indication of that with an expected 6-6 this year, lots of talent in the pipeline and a bowl to help bring in revenues to reach his AD budget.

Rest assured, you will get various views on the whole Brew HCing issue...it's been rehashed endlessly as you probably understand.

 

[Gophers507]

+1 great post

 

[gopherdudepart2]

We are what we have been a .500 program

Gophers won lost record this decade is 60-60. That should not surprise anyone with season tickets or has been around awhile. This would suggest that in only year three of this current coaching staff this decade we should stay the course. Unless the wheels really fall off, get destroyed by a bad team next year, I agree with staying status quo with the coaching staff.

 

[Ron Johnson Super Fan]

Gophers won lost record this decade is 60-60. That should not surprise anyone with season tickets or has been around awhile. This would suggest that in only year three of this current coaching staff this decade we should stay the course. Unless the wheels really fall off, get destroyed by a bad team next year, I agree with staying status quo with the coaching staff.

Exactly. Last year we were 7-5, this year 6-6. Those aren't the kind of records that should get our coach fired after years 2 and 3. Give him his five years and see where the program stands at that time.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

We are what we have been - a .500 record: Gophers won lost record this decade is 60-60. That should not surprise anyone with season tickets or has been around awhile. This would suggest that in only year three of this current coaching staff this decade we should stay the course. Unless the wheels really fall off, get destroyed by a bad team next year, I agree with staying status quo with the coaching staff.

This gets my vote for perspective of the day.

Right now, Brewster is 14-23 (.378). If he serves his original 5 years, he would have to achieve 32-32 (including bowl games), thus he would have to go 18-9 over the next two years plus this year's bowl game in order to achieve a .500 record.

A 5-year .500 Brewster record might look something like:
2007: 1-11 (0-8)
2008: 7-5 (3-5) + bowl loss
2009: 6-6 (3-5) + bowl win
2010: 7-5 (4-4) + bowl loss
2011: 9-3 (5-3) + bowl win
32-32 overall record (.500)

If Brewster can achieve this (or something like it), then I think we're definitely on the right track. I know this only reaches Mason's heights, but it would be good enough to continue giving Brewster a chance to get to that January bowl.

On the other hand, a bad bowl game this year and a similar performance next year would make it almost impossible to get to a 5-year .500 record:

2007: 1-11 (0-8)
2008: 7-5 (3-5) + bowl loss
2009: 6-6 (3-5) + bowl loss
2010: 6-6 (3-5) + bowl win
21-29 (.420 record).. and then to get to .500...
2011: 10-2 (7-1 plus a loss @ USC) + January bowl win - not very dang likely after consecutive 6-6 years

To me, that means if we lose our bowl this year, the Gophers needs to win at least 7 games next year in order for Brew to not get fired at the end of the regular season. Because no one would look at a 6-6 2010 season and conclude that we-d go 11-2 (including the bowl victory) in 2011.

The next 12 months will determine Brewster's fate.

 

[Maroon]

I would have more patience with Brewster - a lot more - if I wasn't seeing the off-field junior-high antics out of him and what seems to be utter incompetence on the sidelines on game day. It isn't about wins and losses at this point for me. The win-loss record isn't why I think he needs to go. It's because I haven't seen even a glimpse of someone who knows what he's doing on the sidelines. He's just so, so, so lacking in that department, I'm convinced it will never get better. So because of that, I don't think his recruiting makes a difference - at least not enough to make up for the other stuff. That's the reason I think the plug needs to be pulled at this early stage. No sense sticking with your decision (Maturi) if it turned out to be a bad one.

 

[wait!what?]

Schnoodler, Next time you are out buying a nice chair try the Barcalounger. You will never go back to a lazy boy.

 

[Gophers09]

I would have more patience with Brewster - a lot more - if I wasn't seeing the off-field junior-high antics out of him and what seems to be utter incompetence on the sidelines on game day. It isn't about wins and losses at this point for me. The win-loss record isn't why I think he needs to go. It's because I haven't seen even a glimpse of someone who knows what he's doing on the sidelines. He's just so, so, so lacking in that department, I'm convinced it will never get better. So because of that, I don't think his recruiting makes a difference - at least not enough to make up for the other stuff. That's the reason I think the plug needs to be pulled at this early stage. No sense sticking with your decision (Maturi) if it turned out to be a bad one.

If he is THAT bad of a coach how did we win 6 games vs. what I think would unanimously be called a difficult schedule? I can't say I'm thrilled with everything I've seen on the sideline but that could be echoed by every fan base I would guess. Two more years is my vote (unless there is some sort of disaster next year).

 

[MGGopher]

If he is THAT bad of a coach how did we win 6 games vs. what I think would unanimously be called a difficult schedule? I can't say I'm thrilled with everything I've seen on the sideline but that could be echoed by every fan base I would guess. Two more years is my vote (unless there is some sort of disaster next year).

+1

 

[stevedave23]

Given our turnover in coordinators, I would normally disagree with firing Fisch.

BUT, he has been a disaster!

I couldn't agree more. Let's face it, Fisch doesn't know what he's doing.

One compliment I'll give Brewster, he's not afraid to change. After his first year he felt the gophers needed more immediate help so he went out and got JUCO players, he wasn't satisfied with running a spread passing offense last year so he fired the O-coordinator and changed to a pro style offense. I'm hoping he realizes that Fisch just isn't cutting it and he decides to make another change.

Like GGR said, too many changes can be problematic but this case it's the lesser of two evils.

 

[FireDaveLee]

However, at the same time, what guy would even consider an offensive coordinator position if you see that you may have the plug pulled on you only one year into installing your system?

Despite what we've seen, especially the last two weeks, I think pulling the plug on Fisch would be a tremendous mistake. For the first time in Brewster's tenure, we should have some stability at the coordinator positions from one year to the next. I think this is a very important factor in potential success.

 

[tpbeight]

If he is THAT bad of a coach how did we win 6 games vs. what I think would unanimously be called a difficult schedule? I can't say I'm thrilled with everything I've seen on the sideline but that could be echoed by every fan base I would guess. Two more years is my vote (unless there is some sort of disaster next year).

Who did they beat? The toughest teams on the schedule beat us, and we beat the weakest teams. We didn't pull any upsets this year at all, and we didn't do a good job of defending our brand new home field. We had some nice wins, but we didn't steal any games, and you could argue there were a couple stolen from us as a direct result of poor coaching.

 

[tpbeight]

Fisch will be here next year. It's going to be tough to find an established, proven coordinator that's willing to come here and work under a coach who has only 2 years left on his deal, and could be gone after this season.

Brewster will not go into his 5th year without an extension. He can't. There's no way he could recruit under those circumstances. He'll either be fired after next season, or extended.

 

[RedPoo]

To me, that means if we lose our bowl this year, the Gophers needs to win at least 7 games next year in order for Brew to not get fired at the end of the regular season. Because no one would look at a 6-6 2010 season and conclude that we-d go 11-2 (including the bowl victory) in 2011.

The next 12 months will determine Brewster's fate.

Not that I disagree with the general numbers I'd like to see over the next couple of years, but why is a .500 record the benchmark by which you'll judge Brewster? And can you fairly count that 1-11 record to him when it was pretty obviously a rebuilding year with a demonstrated dearth of talent?

 

[gopherguy05]

Who did they beat? The toughest teams on the schedule beat us, and we beat the weakest teams. We didn't pull any upsets this year at all, and we didn't do a good job of defending our brand new home field. We had some nice wins, but we didn't steal any games, and you could argue there were a couple stolen from us as a direct result of poor coaching.

I'd say that win @ Northwestern is looking pretty good considering they beat Iowa and Wisconsin

The win over Air Force is looking a lot better now then it did in week 1....

 

[RedPoo]

I'd say that win @ Northwestern is looking pretty good considering they beat Iowa and Wisconsin

The win over Air Force is looking a lot better now then it did in week 1....

Also, since when is losing to better teams and beating worse ones a sign of bad coaching? To me, that sounds like the sign of perfectly average coaching. (And no, I haven't forgotten Illinois.)

 

[dayjoh]

Who did they beat? The toughest teams on the schedule beat us, and we beat the weakest teams. We didn't pull any upsets this year at all, and we didn't do a good job of defending our brand new home field. We had some nice wins, but we didn't steal any games, and you could argue there were a couple stolen from us as a direct result of poor coaching.

I think we'd all agree that we would gladly trade places with Wisconsin in terms of our overall record right? If we look at who they played, it doesn't seem like they stole/upset anyone.

Northern Illinois W 28-20
Fresno St W 34-31
Wofford W 44-14
MSU W 38-30
Minnesota W 31-28
Ohio St L 13-31
Iowa L 10-20
Purdue W 37-0
Indiana W 31-28
Michigan W 45-24
Northwestern L 31-33
Hawaii ???????

I know I wouldn't mind being 4th in the conference right now, but really the best team they beat was MSU, whom we also beat. It's really just about who you play. Yes we should have beaten Illinois though.

All the rational thoughts in this thread are giving me a headache.

 

[dpodoll68]

Our high-water mark during the past 40 years has been 5-3 conference records in 1986, 1999 and 2003.

We went 6-2 in 1973 under Cal Stoll.

I'm of the opinion that we cannot even consider firing Brewster until after the 2011 season. The determinant should be our ability to get into a New Year's Day bowl. If we haven't done it by then, he's gone. If we have, 5-year extension. Pretty simple.

 

[dpodoll68]

We didn't pull any upsets this year at all, and we didn't do a good job of defending our brand new home field.

Incorrect. We defeated Michigan St and Northwestern, who were both favored against us. And we lost to Wisconsin and Illinois, against whom we were favored. So we won 2 we shouldn't have, and lost 2 we shouldn't have. This is yet another indicator that we are nothing more than an average team.

And we went 4-3 at home. Sure, we should have beaten Illinois and gone 5-2, but it's not surprising that we didn't. Again - we are average. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[tpbeight]

At this point in the program are we celebrating wins over Air Force and Northwestern? They're nice, but.......i've seen those wins before. I'm looking for things i haven't seen in a while. An upset of a top 25 team, a win in a trophy game......and the avoidance of losing games at home that we should win (Illinois).

That loss to Illinois at home completely turned things for Brewster. If we were sitting at 7-5 right now there would be a lot fewer complaints. That game was a huge disappointment. That was a "big loss" and there were no "big wins" to compensate for it.

 

[dpodoll68]

At this point in the program are we celebrating wins over Air Force and Northwestern? They're nice, but.......i've seen those wins before. I'm looking for things i haven't seen in a while. An upset of a top 25 team, a win in a trophy game......and the avoidance of losing games at home that we should win (Illinois).

That loss to Illinois at home completely turned things for Brewster. If we were sitting at 7-5 right now there would be a lot fewer complaints. That game was a huge disappointment. That was a "big loss" and there were no "big wins" to compensate for it.

Since you're throwing out arbitrary definitions of "big wins" and "big losses" (and ignoring how I've just stated we had 2 upset wins this year), chew on this stat for a while:

We beat 3 bowl teams this year. Care to guess the last time that's happened?

2005.

Wanna know the last time before that when it happened (at least by modern bowl standards)?

1977.

So you just keep on thinking this year was same 'ol, same 'ol.

 

[Go Gophers Rah]

Not that I disagree with the general numbers I'd like to see over the next couple of years, but why is a .500 record the benchmark by which you'll judge Brewster? And can you fairly count that 1-11 record to him when it was pretty obviously a rebuilding year with a demonstrated dearth of talent?

Well, I don't want to get too hung up on numbers, they are just a starting place for an objective analysis. As I thought more of it though, I thought an apples-to-apples with Mason's first 5 years would be more appropriate. Glen Mason had a 26-32 (14-26 Big Ten) record which is .448 (or .350 in the conference). To have this kind of "success" in his 1st 5 years, Brewsters record would have to look something like...

2007: 1-11 (0-8)
2008: 7-5 (3-5) + bowl loss
2009: 6-6 (3-5) + bowl loss
2010: 6-6 (4-4) + bowl win
2011: 7-5 (4-4) + bowl win
29-35 (14-26) record (.453 and .350 in conference play)

Using Mason's 1st 5 years as a yardstick, Brewster's team could lose this year's bowl and go 6-6 next year and he could still have a fairly decent chance at equaling or surpassing Mason's 5-year performance. Obviously Mason didn't get fired at the end of year 5, so that is at least one measure of acceptable performance in a coache's 1st 5 years. Of course, during those 5 years, Mason's teams won Floyd 3 times, won the Axe once and beat 3 ranked teams.

I would say that at the end of next season, Brewster must have: won at least 6 games including this year's bowl game AND win over either a ranked team or against Iowa or Wisconsin. If his team doesn't accomplish that, then I think we should part ways. That's just my opinion.