I can't remember where I heard this (Schein On Sports - Mad Dog Radio maybe), but the topic of NIL deals and what they will evolve into came up...this was following the college football bowl season, in which many top players sit out to protect themselves from injury (and their draft status).
They were discussing that there was a an expensive NIL deal with Spencer Rattler, the former Oklahoma QB, who played sparingly as a true freshmen, but then won the job as a sophomore...only to lose his job after his JR season to star freshmen Caleb Williams (who transferred after his sophomore season and just won the Heisman at USC *southern Cal). After Rattler lost his job, he transfer to USC (South Carolina) and put up so-so numbers in 2022. (so a Oklahoma car dealership had an NIL deal with the starting quarterback who transferred to an out of state school...to a place where they did not have dealerships...).
The guy on the podcast said this, along with stars sitting out of bowl games is going to quickly create changes to the NIL contract structures. For example, in the near future, that same Oklahoma car company will only give the expensive NIL deal to the starting qb of Oklahoma, and only the starting QB will get the money. If you get benched, you lose your money. Also, there will be a big % of the NIL deal that will be backloaded to bowl games (or in basketball's case...March Madness).
These NIL deals will evolve to performance and appearance based contracts. A perfect example of a potential future deal would be Dennis Evans. Yeah someone paid him (maybe) $500K go to to Louisville, but if he never performs or doesn't crack the lineup, it's just a 1 time payment (which would be backloaded and have strings attached around playing time and March madness *maybe minutes per game)....that $500K could quickly turn into $40K if he doesn't met the stipulations of the contract.