Half our Big Ten West opponents will be in year zero

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Otis said:
Doesn’t matter having all these new coaches, the road to the West still goes through Iowa City.

Having a decent QB in Iowa should scare all West teams. That may have been their weakest spot. And losing people on defense is an annual thing there that never seems to affect their performance.

Hopefully, Prime will slow Nebraska by pulling talent which may have considered Nebby.

Wisconsin is circling the wagons and should be down again. Unless Fickel brings in loads of transfers.

Brohm leaving should help bring down the offensive effectiveness of the Boilers and make it harder for them to score which is their biggest asset.

Gophers should be competitive with some key additions to the defense and the OL.

Id rank the West this way:

1. Iowa - just getting to an average offense should scare everyone in the West and now they have a QB.

2. Minnesota - mostly here because of faith in defense. Offense has some big needs filling the OL and we need to identify our cash cow RB.

3. Wisconsin - if Fickel brings in his Cindy transfer studs and keeps the core of current roster. Road to the West May take the Madison off ramp.

4. Illinois - losing a lot but BB, will coach up what he has and outperform most other coaches.

5. Nebraska - all those highly rated recruiting classes and an effective coach could right the ship. Darkhorse contender for sure. Just don’t know how long it will take to fix the culture.

6. Purdue - with Brohm gone, offense should stall out and their defense has never been a strong point.

7. Northwestern - i still know they could somehow win the West, not sure how unless they play all their games in Ireland!
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The possible Iowa QB threw 15 TDs in 14 games with better OL, RB, WR and TE than he'll have at Iowa. But sure.
 


Panthadad2 said:
I think the "sphinctering" is mainly an Iowa issue and weak non-con opponent issue. He didn't sphincter up vs. Penn State in 2019 nor Wisconsin that year (even though the players outplayed and coaches outcoached in that game). Nor against Ohio State in 2021 or Purdue in any year (MN came out passing vs. Purdue this year but the O-line forgot how to block and the WRs forgot how to catch).

Next year's schedule may look tough right now in terms of crossover opponents, but it's also a terrific slate of home games. I'm trying to be optimistic.
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WI 2019 we punted from WI 35 yard line on 4th and 2. If that is not sphinctering I don’t know what is.
 

swelna said:
Michigan at home, likely for homecoming, is gonna have the stadium packed and high energy. Gophs could be 5-0 going into that game if the right pieces fall into place/emerge...
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As high energy as Bowling Green and Illinois homecoming games the previous years?
 

Louisiana will be Homecoming
 



Replacement Gopher said:
WI 2019 we punted from WI 35 yard line on 4th and 2. If that is not sphinctering I don’t know what is.
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Here are the Minnesota punts. With these scores and the fact they were playing in a blizzard, which ones would you have gone for it on 4th down against a top ranked WI defense?

4th and 7 from the WI 40 - Score MN 7 WI 0
4th and 5 from the MN/WI 50 - Score 7-3
4th and 15 from the MN 44 - Score 7-10
4th and 11 from the MN 49 - Score 7-10

I don't consider not going for it with 4 and 7 (vs. a very good WI D) on the 40 yard line with 7 point lead in a blizzard as "sphinctering".
 

MNVCGUY said:
Yeah, impossible to say right now what Purdue, Wisconsin or Nebraska will look like next year with new head coaches combined with all the player movement in the portal. But chances are good they all take a step back of some kind which is very common after coaching changes.

The level of roster churn is so high right now that it really is almost impossible to know what to expect from any team until the teams take the field and get a few games in.
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My guess is WI and NE will both be better than there were this year. They both have a strong base of talent, and each of their coaches will attract good players. They are not the type of coaches who take a Year 0 on purpose.
 




who the bleep knows?

with the portal and NIL, a team can transform itself in one off-season.

Sure, if you take the most optimistic point of view for MN, they could win the West. But, that optimistic point of view assumes that MN will be able to fill all of its graduation and portal losses while simultaneously improving in other areas. the optimistic view also assumes that the other teams in the B1G West will not be able to accomplish the same feat.

on the flip side, imagine this: MN is not able to fill all of its graduation and portal losses. MN does not improve in other areas. While the other teams in the B1G West bring in new coaches, new schemes, new players and they all get better.

option B is just as possible as Option A.

and in reality, the final outcome will probably be somewhere in between. Some teams will get better, some teams will stay the same, and some teams will get worse. we just don't know which teams will be which.
 

Xerxes_ said:
No such thing as "year zero" in the portal era.
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Agree- With coaches being hired in December and having the portal and an early signing period, they can have a significant roster ready to go for Spring Ball.
 

Who's projecting an L to UNC?

Based on the data we have available to us (2022), Minnesota is a good margin better.

Minnesota: #16 SP+, #18 F+, #20 TeamRankings, #23 Sagarin
UNC: #52 SP+, #60 F+, #52 TeamRankings, #56 Sagarin
(by every measure Syracuse is better than UNC)

If Minnesota were playing UNC in their bowl game, even for the mayonnaise bucket in Charlotte, even in the Tar Heel Winter Homecoming Bowl, the Gophers would be favored.

Just don't tell it to the human polls, who have ranked the Tar Heels almost all year long and had them #23 going into championship week, with the Gophers finally getting one measly vote from one bold sportswriter.

The perception gap between these two teams means UNC is playing a bowl game vs Oregon and Minnesota is playing Syracuse. When computers look at it, Minnesota is the 3rd most heavily favored team by SP+ in bowl szn, while UNC is the 2nd biggest underdog. All about the sticker on the helmet.
 

fmlizard said:
Who's projecting an L to UNC?

Based on the data we have available to us (2022), Minnesota is a good margin better.

Minnesota: #16 SP+, #18 F+, #20 TeamRankings, #23 Sagarin
UNC: #52 SP+, #60 F+, #52 TeamRankings, #56 Sagarin
(by every measure Syracuse is better than UNC)

If Minnesota were playing UNC in their bowl game, even for the mayonnaise bucket in Charlotte, even in the Tar Heel Winter Homecoming Bowl, the Gophers would be favored.

Just don't tell it to the human polls, who have ranked the Tar Heels almost all year long and had them #23 going into championship week, with the Gophers finally getting one measly vote from one bold sportswriter.

The perception gap between these two teams means UNC is playing a bowl game vs Oregon and Minnesota is playing Syracuse. When computers look at it, Minnesota is the 3rd most heavily favored team by SP+ in bowl szn, while UNC is the 2nd biggest underdog. All about the sticker on the helmet.
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The funny thing is, I don't consider UNC to be a helmet school AT ALL. They are a basketball school that happens to play football. One step above Duke.
 



Panthadad2 said:
The funny thing is, I don't consider UNC to be a helmet school AT ALL. They are a basketball school that happens to play football. One step above Duke.
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I agree. Their football history during my lifetime is no better than the Gophers. But the hype seemed to build when they re-hired Mack Brown and had a couple big recruiting class rankings. It's bled into the polls.

I don't think Minnesota should fear them more than an average Big Ten game. Good chance at a win.
 


media reports that the OC at North Carolina is leaving to take the OC job for Fickell at Wisconsin.
this guy is credited with helping to develop the UNC offense.

could be a whole new look in Madison next year.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
media reports that the OC at North Carolina is leaving to take the OC job for Fickell at Wisconsin.
this guy is credited with helping to develop the UNC offense.

could be a whole new look in Madison next year.
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Good for us I think.
Wisconsin changing identity when their identity has been really good.
I don’t think he turns them into a national powerhouse. Best case they get back to a conference title contender.

Worst case is rich rod Michigan
 

Panthadad2 said:
Here are the Minnesota punts. With these scores and the fact they were playing in a blizzard, which ones would you have gone for it on 4th down against a top ranked WI defense?

4th and 7 from the WI 40 - Score MN 7 WI 0
4th and 5 from the MN/WI 50 - Score 7-3
4th and 15 from the MN 44 - Score 7-10
4th and 11 from the MN 49 - Score 7-10

I don't consider not going for it with 4 and 7 (vs. a very good WI D) on the 40 yard line with 7 point lead in a blizzard as "sphinctering".
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Check the first punt.
It was fourth and 2 on the WI 35. We purposely took a delay of game to give the punter more room/try to draw WI offsides.
At the time we were winning 7-0.

It was a must win game. I call that “sphinctering”.
 
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GopherWeatherGuy said:
People are afraid of next season because of the schedule and how much the Gophers are losing, but every other west team is losing more.

The Gophers could lose to UNC, Ohio St. and Michigan and still easily win the west.
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Next year is our year!

Go Gophers!!
 

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