Gophers Path to NCAA Tournament Bid? Schedule says 21 wins should do it

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Otis said:
I believe Boston College and Washington need to be moved down a category based on their performance so far.

BC lost to IUPUI at home! By 10 points!

Washington got blown out by Auburn by 22pts and struggled to get by San Diego at home by 3. Not San Diego State, but the Gulls.

I'd say the Washington game should at least be 50-50 and I'd be surprised if we aren't favored against BC.
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This was done before the season started. Unlike last season, I'm not going to make it a moving target as the season goes along. ... too much work to do that, not to mention it just complicates things. The idea is simplicity, and a general guide for the season. Will keep games in their same grouping all season.
 
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SelectionSunday said:
This was done before the season started. Unlike last season, I'm not going to make it a moving target as the season goes along. ... too much work to do that. Teams will stay where they are all season.
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Youre such a slacker
 

Getting two wins in the Big Boys category will be a real challenge. Michigan, MI State and Indiana look real tough. Beyond the obvious Washington game, will probably need to beat Indiana at home. However, I think we could win five out of the 50-50 category.


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Otis said:
I believe Boston College and Washington need to be moved down a category based on their performance so far.

BC lost to IUPUI at home! By 10 points!

Washington got blown out by Auburn by 22pts and struggled to get by San Diego at home by 3. Not San Diego State, but the Gulls.

I'd say the Washington game should at least be 50-50 and I'd be surprised if we aren't favored against BC.
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The Gulls?
 

dpodoll68 said:
The Gulls?
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And actually, the early returns on the "Gulls" (Toreros) are pretty promising. Washington is USD's only loss so far this season, and I won't be surprised if the Toreros are favored to beat 2-0 Colorado tomorrow night in San Diego.
 


Toreros, Gulls, what's the difference?

I think the Gulls were the hockey team.
 

SelectionSunday said:
And actually, the early returns on the "Gulls" (Toreros) are pretty promising. Washington is USD's only loss so far this season, and I won't be surprised if the Toreros are favored to beat 2-0 Colorado tomorrow night in San Diego.
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Yep, agreed. I posted in another thread that San Diego has a solid team this year. Watch them be competitive against Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and BYU later this year...

I think people are going a little overboard talking about the 22 point loss for Washington when they played at Auburn. Auburn has a really good team this year. A team that I think has enough talent to be a Final Four contender. Washington walked into a buzz-saw that night. I still think Washington makes the NCAA tournament.
 

gopherguy15 said:
Yep, agreed. I posted in another thread that San Diego has a solid team this year. Watch them be competitive against Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and BYU later this year...

I think people are going a little overboard talking about the 22 point loss for Washington when they played at Auburn. Auburn has a really good team this year. A team that I think has enough talent to be a Final Four contender. Washington walked into a buzz-saw that night. I still think Washington makes the NCAA tournament.
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I think this "tournament" set up perfectly for Gophers in terms of the order of opponents. Likely the second-best opponent first (A&M) and the best opponent last (U-Dub) sandwiched around the one (Santa Clara) they should have little trouble beating.
 

SelectionSunday said:
I think this "tournament" set up perfectly for Gophers in terms of the order of opponents. Likely the second-best opponent first (A&M) and the best opponent last (U-Dub) sandwiched around the one (Santa Clara) they should have little trouble beating.
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Definitely agree. Tomorrow we play Santa Clara at 6 pm and Washington plays A&M at 8:30 pm. The Gophers definitely have the advantage in turnaround time and expected game intensity. Hopefully we can use the full bench tomorrow and no one has to play more than 30 minutes.
 



After tonight's 80-66 win over Santa Clara, the Gophers move to 2-0 in Hodger's "Should Be Expected to Win (win 'em all, 9-0)" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

After tonight's thrilling win over Washington, Gophers are 1-0 in Hodger's "The Big Boys (no worse than 2-3)" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

Big win today. It may have been ugly but this is exactly the kind of W that can be the difference in March.
 




Updated through Washington game

Wins Obtained: 5
Estimated Number of Additional Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 16

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (0-0)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (2-0)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (U.S. Bank Stadium)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (2-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 2-0 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (5-0 so far)
Big Ten: 12-8 (0-0 so far)
 

Love looking at the season through the lens of this breakdown. Thanks, Sunday!

JTG
 

After tonight's ugly loss at Boston College, the Gophers are 0-1 in Hodger's "50-50s (no worse than 4-4)" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

Updated through Conte Forum Disaster (Boston College)

Wins Obtained: 5
Estimated Number of Additional Wins Needed Prior to Big Ten Tournament for Stress-Free Selection Sunday: 16

The Big Boys -- no worse than 2-3 (1-0)
Nov. 21: vs. Washington (Won 68-66)
Jan. 22: @ Michigan
Feb. 9: @ Michigan State
Feb. 16: Indiana
Feb. 21: Michigan

50-50s -- no worse than 4-4 (0-1)
Nov. 26: @ Boston College (Lost 56-68)
Dec. 2: @ Ohio State
Dec. 5: Nebraska
Jan. 3: @ Wisconsin
Feb. 3: @ Purdue
Feb. 6: Wisconsin
Feb. 13: @ Nebraska
March 8: @ Maryland

Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3 (2-0)
Nov. 12: Utah (Won 78-69)
Nov. 18: vs. Texas A&M (Won 69-64)
Nov. 30: vs. Oklahoma State (U.S. Bank Stadium)
Jan. 8: Maryland
Jan. 16: @ Illinois
Jan. 27: Iowa
Feb. 24: @ Rutgers
Feb. 28: @ Northwestern
March 5: Purdue

Should Be Expected to Win -- win 'em all, go 9-0 (2-0)
Nov. 6: Omaha (Won 104-76)
Nov. 20: vs. Santa Clara (Won 80-66)
Dec. 8: Arkansas State
Dec. 11: North Florida
Dec. 21: North Carolina A&T
Dec. 30: Mount Saint Mary's
Jan. 12: Rutgers
Jan. 19: Penn State
Jan. 30: Illinois

Key to Season
No Worse Than 14-2 At Williams Arena: 2-0 so far

Estimated Requirements
Non-Conference: 9-2 (5-1 so far)
Big Ten: 12-8 (0-0 so far)
 

After seeing some of the early season results, the Wisconsin, Purdue, OSU, Nebraska, maybe @Maryland could all be “big boys” and Washington could be moved into the 50-50 category. That probably changes up some of the math of how many wins we’d need given those games have jumped to “bigger” wins, though.

Very odd schedule where almost every major conference team we see is probably on the outside looking in for the tournament in non-con, but we see 6 or 7 top 20 teams (some of them 2x) in conference play.
 
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Why is OSU ranked so high?
 

Otis said:
Why is OSU ranked so high?
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In terms of their polls, they’re 16th. They’re 23rd in KenPom so it isn’t too crazy.

As for NET, I’m assuming that it’s because they have good raw efficiencies (not adjusted for competition like KenPom) on both O and D and have beaten a bunch of winning teams (plus the road win @Cincy helps them).
 

After tonight's neutral site win over Oklahoma State, the Gophers are 3-0 in Hodger's "Likely Favored But Not A Gimme' -- no worse than 6-3" category.

Go Gophers!!
 

It's going to be tough for the Gophers to win the next two.
 


Absolutely have to split next 2. Protecting homecourt in conference play is essential. Big Ten is deepest conference in the country. Not one gimme on schedule this year.

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mnhoopboy said:
Absolutely have to split next 2. Protecting homecourt in conference play is essential. Big Ten is deepest conference in the country. Not one gimme on schedule this year.

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Based on the vibe I can't see them going 0-2. I think Nebraska should be a win.

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bfast said:
Based on the vibe I can't see them going 0-2. I think Nebraska should be a win.

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Nebraska will be slight favorites

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The most encouraging thing, to me, about this Gopher team is they are 6 and 1 and pretty much they have looked sloppy, horrible, inadequate, dumb etc in all 7 games at some point. But tonight they had a couple stretches where you say, hey, hey, maybe we got something here. Course then the other team goes on a 9-0 run and you go, oh man. But, we are winning and you can see glimpses of what might be. I believe there is a chance we win 21 plus.

Very worried about Coffey as a ball handler and now lately as a scorer. He has to score more effectively more consistently. He Murphy get no nights off if we have any chance to surprise and beat teams.
 

60's Guy said:
The most encouraging thing, to me, about this Gopher team is they are 6 and 1 and pretty much they have looked sloppy, horrible, inadequate, dumb etc in all 7 games at some point. But tonight they had a couple stretches where you say, hey, hey, maybe we got something here. Course then the other team goes on a 9-0 run and you go, oh man. But, we are winning and you can see glimpses of what might be. I believe there is a chance we win 21 plus.

Very worried about Coffey as a ball handler and now lately as a scorer. He has to score more effectively more consistently. He Murphy get no nights off if we have any chance to surprise and beat teams.
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Nice thing about playing five power-5 teams before December is that they got to learn a lot about themselves before conference play. A non-powerhouse team is going to have its share weaknesses, but at least they have something to go off of in terms of trying to patch things up for the conference slate.

Better than playing 2 or 3 power-5 teams and getting a false sense of ability against a cupcakes.

I'm very pleased with the 4-1 record against the P5 teams. Yeah, most of them are bottom half, but one of the others could cause some top-half trouble in their conference.
 

I'm gonna be shocked if we go 4-4 in the 50-50s. I think 3-5 is doable, but I wouldn't be surprised if we go 2-4. I like our chances of going 3-2 in The Big Boys better to be honest and think that is where we could make it up if we go 3-5 in the 50-50s.
 
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