Some Day...Maybe
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Bring on the Bulldogs! Should be a better test. Go Gophers!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
man... the quality of that gif tho...
That’s the oddsmakers not knowing who will win.
I would say, that's the oddsmakers trying to get people to bet on the game!
I am surprised that they did not give Fresno State a slight edge coming off a 10-win season with their DBs returning virtually intact addition to their senior QB and top two WRs.
Another point of perspective, Idaho is an FCS team that went 4-8 last year yet moved the ball for over 300 yards, despite constantly shooting themselves in the foot.Regarding FSU's 10 win season last year, only 4 of the 10 wins were to teams with winning records. 5 of the 10 wins were with teams who won 3 or fewer games. 4 losses were to #1 Alabama, #6 Washington, UNLV, and #25 Boise St.in the Conference Championship game. Lone upset win was to #25 Boise St. Lone upset loss was to UNLV. Overall a 9 win season in a very weak Mountain West Conference.
Regarding FSU's 10 win season last year, only 4 of the 10 wins were to teams with winning records. 5 of the 10 wins were with teams who won 3 or fewer games. 4 losses were to #1 Alabama, #6 Washington, UNLV, and #25 Boise St.in the Conference Championship game. Lone upset win was to #25 Boise St. Lone upset loss was to UNLV. Overall a 9 win season in a very weak Mountain West Conference.
Another point of perspective, Idaho is an FCS team that went 4-8 last year yet moved the ball for over 300 yards, despite constantly shooting themselves in the foot.
Looks like we have had some line movement since opening. Gophers moved to -2.5 Favorites around the afternoon of 9/2 but as of this morning have dropped to consensus -1.5 favorites. Here is current breakdown across online & some Vegas books:
10:00a CST 9/7
Bovada MIN-1.5
Bet365 MIN-1.5
BetOnline MIN-1.5
Pinnacle MIN-1.5
5Dimes MIN-1.5
Heritage MIN-2
WILLHILL MIN-2.5
Majority of the O/U Totals are 48 points
The disparity between the betting lines and advanced metrics is interesting. Sagarin has it as essentially a pick 'em, but Connelly, OddsShark, and others think that Fresno St. is going to win fairly easily. That is a definite possibility, but I'm surprised not to see it reflected more in the betting lines.
Betting lines aren't motivated by actually predicting the winner ... rather they are motivated by getting the most people to place bets, in a balanced manner!
Betting lines aren't motivated by actually predicting the winner ... rather they are motivated by getting the most people to place bets, in a balanced manner!
I know how the lines are established, which is why I said what I did. If people believe the advanced metrics and think that Fresno St. is going to win easily, there would be a lot of money coming in on Fresno St. and pushing the line more in their favor, certainly more than the 1 point it's moved so far. That this hasn't happened makes me think that people don't believe the advanced metrics to be accurate for this particular game.
The disparity between the betting lines and advanced metrics is interesting. Sagarin has it as essentially a pick 'em, but Connelly, OddsShark, and others think that Fresno St. is going to win fairly easily. That is a definite possibility, but I'm surprised not to see it reflected more in the betting lines.
I also think that the over is easy money on this game, but who knows. I think both teams scoring at least 24 points each is almost guaranteed.
As a casual sports better I'll give my take here:
This is a trap game for betters.
One of these teams in going to win comfortably and that team is going to be whoever has less money on them.
I emotionally hedged and put money on Fresno to win outright.
One of the sites I check shows the bets on each side. Right now 52% of the bets are on the gophers and 53% on the over. Obviously the bets total isn’t an exact representation of the money on the game and sharks can move lines but it gives some outlooks.
The fact the lines keep shifting toward FSU and a PK shows money is pouring in against Minnesota.