Gophers open as (+6.5) point underdogs at Penn State

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College football is a weird sport. You always lose a game you shouldn’t lose and win a game you shouldn’t win. Not exactly predicting a win but I wouldn’t be completely shocked.
 

I'd take those points all day......Gophers are going to get steamrolled, the secret is out, stop the run and Gophs can't win, and they refuse to target their only effective passing threat BSF more that 3 times a game. Going to be a 27-10 type loss in whiteout conditions.
 




is Clifford playing? He went out late in the loss yesterday.

If TM2 isn't playing, I'd take PSU
 


beatles said:
PSU just gave up over 400 rushing yards. Mo could have a huge day. Not predicting a win but much bigger upsets than this happen all the time.
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Yeah.
PSU has warts too.

PSU is a team that was 7-6

Their best win is against a Purdue game in a close game. The same team the gophers lost to in a close game. Both teams QB situations are uncertain. PSU just got physically beat down and have Ohio state the next game.
Second best win is 3-4 auburn.

This game is a pick em to me if Morgan was playing: the gophers aren’t that good but neither is penn state.
 





Triple D said:
I'd take those points all day......Gophers are going to get steamrolled, the secret is out, stop the run and Gophs can't win, and they refuse to target their only effective passing threat BSF more that 3 times a game. Going to be a 27-10 type loss in whiteout conditions.
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Really? Illinois stopped the run?
 

Some guy said:
Yeah.
PSU has warts too.

PSU is a team that was 7-6

Their best win is against a Purdue game in a close game. The same team the gophers lost to in a close game. Both teams QB situations are uncertain. PSU just got physically beat down and have Ohio state the next game.
Second best win is 3-4 auburn.

This game is a pick em to me if Morgan was playing: the gophers aren’t that good but neither is penn state.
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Auburn is not a good team. This has the makings of a surprise upset if Gophs open up the offense. Morgan got his opportunity based on injury, so looking forward to seeing what Athan can do, in person, Saturday.
 

Home team usually gets some points. Gophers coming off back-to-back losses.

6.5 seems about right. I would not be surprised to see the spread change during the week, depending on whether there is any update on Morgan's availability.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
Home team usually gets some points. Gophers coming off back-to-back losses.

6.5 seems about right. I would not be surprised to see the spread change during the week, depending on whether there is any update on Morgan's availability.
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PSU got dominated and beat up by Michigan as well. I think the spread is assuming Morgan is not playing.
 



PMWinSTP said:
Auburn is not a good team. This has the makings of a surprise upset if Gophs open up the offense. Morgan got his opportunity based on injury, so looking forward to seeing what Athan can do, in person, Saturday.
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Agreed.
 

Triple D said:
I'd take those points all day......Gophers are going to get steamrolled, the secret is out, stop the run and Gophs can't win, and they refuse to target their only effective passing threat BSF more that 3 times a game. Going to be a 27-10 type loss in whiteout conditions.
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BSF is a tall, somewhat lumbering TE. He is going to break out every single year, until he doesn't.
 

I like our odds with AK & Knuth at the helm. Let’s skip TM and focus on future Gophers! TM can be a coach for our QBs while he rests his head, neck, and shoulders.

Ciarocca dummy’s up the playbook, do short passes (ie short curls, slants, tight ends straight up the field, WR screens, etc) so our rookie QBs can actually deliver the ball to our WRs & TEs AND our WRs and TEs can actually catch the ball. Also this way, our OL don’t have to hold their DL too long. Then just feed the shit out of MO!

TM in, we lose
AK or Knuth, we win
 

PMWinSTP said:
Really? Illinois stopped the run?
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Illinois in a sense stopped the run by (1) jumping out to a 10 - 0 lead (which is essentially insurmountable in the PJ era, except for the Auburn bowl game) and (2) holding us to only 42 plays and 19:56 TOP. Forced us to pass to try to “catch up.” On Mo’s 15 runs, he averaged 8.5 yards, but we can’t just run Mo every play when playing catch-up.

No one has stopped Mo this year, but against good teams running Mo just isn’t enough. Chase Brown ran for 180 against us, but that wasn’t enough for Illinois to beat us. Not near. DeVito complemented the run game with 25-32, 250 and 1 TD, and Illinois’ D finished us with 3 interceptions.

We can probably run against Penn State for 150 yards, and that alone might give us a respectable loss. Absent a complementary, successful passing game, and with a defense that seemingly never turns the ball over at critical junctures, we will lose. I think Athan can rejuvenate the passing game, but he is just getting his feet wet and will make some rookie mistakes as he gets used to the speed of the top college teams. Next week might be too soon, against too talented a team, to expect a turnaround led by Athan.

Our RBs, receivers, defense and STs must lead; Athan must make our passing game respectable. Then we are in the game.
 
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Yah-E said:
I like our odds with AK & Knuth at the helm. Let’s skip TM and focus on future Gophers! TM can be a coach for our QBs while he rests his head, neck, and shoulders.

Ciarocca dummy’s up the playbook, do short passes (ie short curls, slants, tight ends straight up the field, WR screens, etc) so our rookie QBs can actually deliver the ball to our WRs & TEs AND our WRs and TEs can actually catch the ball. Also this way, our OL don’t have to hold their DL too long. Then just feed the shit out of MO!

TM in, we lose
AK or Knuth, we win
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Short easy-to-complete passes are part of a long-march, TOP strategy. Many such passes, usually good for 4-5 yards, are running play substitutes. Also a good way to stretch defenses from sideline to sideline. Might be the best way to help Athan get used to the speed and brutality of B1G football. And to ease in a young, shifty speed demon like Hoskins. Athan looks as though he might be a decent roll-out QB (like DeVito). With this OL, won’t be doing Athan any favor by having him hold the ball for 4-5 seconds in straight drop backs and slow developing routes.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Illinois in a sense stopped the run by (1) jumping out to a 10 - 0 lead (which is essentially insurmountable in the PJ era, except for the Auburn bowl game) and (2) holding us to only 42 plays and 19:56 TOP. Forced us to pass to try to “catch up.” On Mo’s 15 runs, he averaged 8.5 yards, but we can’t just run Mo every play when playing catch-up.

No one has stopped Mo this year, but against good teams running Mo just isn’t enough. Chase Brown ran for 180 against us, but that wasn’t enough for Illinois to beat us. Not near. DeVito complemented the run game with 25-32, 250 and 1 TD, and Illinois’ D finished us with 3 interceptions.

I’ll bet we can run against Penn State, and that might give us a respectable loss. But without a passing game, and with a defense that seemingly never turns the ball over at critical junctures, we lose. I think Athan can rejuvenate the passing game, but he is just getting his feet wet and next week might be too soon, against too talented a team, to expect a turnaround.
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Ilinois didn't stop the run, Gophs could not figure out the forward pass.
 


PMWinSTP said:
Ilinois didn't stop the run, Gophs could not figure out the forward pass.
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Nor could gopher D get off the field.
Worse performance by the gopher D since the 2021 season opener vs Ohio state. Maybe since 2020 when you consider the opponent
 

I think most places started in the +4 to +5 range for Gophs and have pretty much stayed there. Figuring 2.5 for home field advantage, it's been seen as pretty much a toss up for betting.
 

Some guy said:
Nor could gopher D get off the field.
Worse performance by the gopher D since the 2021 season opener vs Ohio state. Maybe since 2020 when you consider the opponent
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The offense contributed a lot to that performance.
 

PMWinSTP said:
The offense contributed a lot to that performance.
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Don’t care.
6/17 on third down. But 4 of those 11 stops were converted in 4th.

So 7/17 at getting off the field in 3rd down situations. Illinois converted 3rd down to another set of downs or a score 58% of the time.

You can blame the offense all you want but that’s the worst they’ve been in 16 games +
 

Some guy said:
Don’t care.
6/17 on third down. But 4 of those 11 stops were converted in 4th.

So 7/17 at getting off the field in 3rd down situations. Illinois converted 3rd down to another set of downs or a score 58% of the time.

You can blame the offense all you want but that’s the worst they’ve been in 16 games +
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Of course you don't.
 



Some guy said:
Nor could gopher D get off the field.
Worse performance by the gopher D since the 2021 season opener vs Ohio state. Maybe since 2020 when you consider the opponent
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Amen. It’s weird how many posters on the board have been apologists for that terrible defensive performance.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
I’d take PSU to cover that all day
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this is a very strange line. It's actually down to 4.5. This line should be about -16.5 -- there is no way the Gophers cover this spread, especially if Morgan is out.
 

WorkingMyTailOff said:
Amen. It’s weird how many posters on the board have been apologists for that terrible defensive performance.
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And it isn’t a crime to say they’ve been really good for 16 games in a row and they were average on Saturday.
 

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