Gophers open as -2 point favorites @ Illinois

Donate To GopherHole


short ornery norwegian said:
another way to think about it -

it's not just "MN vs Ill"

it's actually 3 different games:

MN offense vs Illinois Defense
MN defense vs Illinois offense
MN special teams vs Illinois Special teams

MN needs to win at least 2 of those 3 games.

(if you're paranoid, add a 4th gm: MN vs the referees.....)
Click to expand...
Mn D is much better than Illinois offense. We are at least as good on STs. That leaves the Minnesota E. Lansing offense against Illinois home D. I give us the edge there too.
 

MGGopher said:
Wow, that's a lot of line movement in two days. Inject some of that Vegas hopium into my veins, please lol! Been a minute since Minnesota has been a TD favorite on the road vs. a ranked team.
Click to expand...
Art / DeVito?
 

Some guy said:
The no respect card pretty overrated
If Illinois needed to be underdogs to get fired up for this game they are pretty stupid
Click to expand...
They have had a lot of practice at that over the last several years.
 


Some guy said:
The no respect card pretty overrated
If Illinois needed to be underdogs to get fired up for this game they are pretty stupid
Click to expand...

Well, we might think it's overrated, but it sure seems to get a lot of play.
 



Some guy said:
Is that why the underdogs usually win?

Cliches get overplayed
That might even be the definition of cliche
Click to expand...

I agree; for the record, I'm not saying playing the underdog/disrespect card is effective. I'm saying it seems like players and coaches use it a lot. And you're right: when something gets repeated frequently, it becomes it a cliche.
 





on the line moving - could be a bit of recency bias. people just watched the Illinois-Iowa game where Illinois did not look good on offense. Meanwhile, Gophers did not play last week so the memory of the Purdue game has faded.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
on the line moving - could be a bit of recency bias. people just watched the Illinois-Iowa game where Illinois did not look good on offense. Meanwhile, Gophers did not play last week so the memory of the Purdue game has faded.
Click to expand...
If there's recency bias anywhere it's here on GH where one loss to a pretty good Purdue team means we were terrible all along.
 




Gophers1992 said:
If there's recency bias anywhere it's here on GH where one loss to a pretty good Purdue team means we were terrible all along.
Click to expand...
I’m open to the idea Purdue might be pretty good but the scale of not good offensive play was pretty shocking vs Purdue.
 


OddStack said:
Gophers up to -6.5
Click to expand...
That's a pretty wide spread for a roadie with a team the Gophers lost to a worse version of last year. I hate betting against the Gophers but that would make me consider it.

If I didn't live in the "Free State of Florida" as the governor calls it 🙄, I might be able to bet on the game like I could in a variety of Midwest states. But strangely not Illinois for this one. When I lived in IL, Illinois residents weren't allowed to bet on Illinois CFB games, including Northwestern, NIU, etc.
 


fmlizard said:
But strangely not Illinois for this one. When I lived in IL, Illinois residents weren't allowed to bet on Illinois CFB games, including Northwestern, NIU, etc.
Click to expand...
That's an NCAA thing. They threaten to ban states from hosting postseason games in all sports at all levels if the state allows betting on in-state college teams' games.
 

How good is the Illinois defense? Reading here and there, their fans seem to think it’s the greatest defense of all time.
 

golden_girl said:
How good is the Illinois defense? Reading here and there, their fans seem to think it’s the greatest defense of all time.
Click to expand...
Sort for yards allowed per play, Illinois is the best defense in the nation. Our offense needs to play it’s best and most physical game. B2BE7DE0-C1E0-4AB9-9015-7050E6865382.png
 



Cedar Rapids Gopher said:
But you also need to look at the offense they have played.
Click to expand...
That certainly needs to be taken into account with any teams early season stats (ours included). But Illinois did hold Wisconsin to 2 yards of rushing.....2....for Wisconsin. I didn't get to see that game because I was at the Gophers game but they shut down Wisconsin's run offense enough that the Badgers went away from it entirely. Allen and Mellusi had a combined 15 carries on the game.

Now this is not a great Wisconsin team but that is still impressive. There is a very good chance that the game Saturday will be really low scoring and it will come down to whichever team can execute in the passing game enough to keep the ball moving.

We absolutely have the best offense they have played to date but I think it is safe to say their defense is very good and playing at a really high level.

The thing that is being overlooked however is that our defense is also really good and playing at a very high level.
 

Maybe the Gophers' offense will come alive and the Illinois defense will wilt. Maybe our passing game will work, loosening up Illinois' tendency to stack the box and run blitz, in turn empowering our run game. We take control of the game offensively and force Illinois to play catch-up with its thin passing game, diminishing the Chase Brown factor. That would be great.

But if both of our defenses are truly as advertised, that probably won't happen. This will probably be a hard fought war for every yard and every point. Ball security will be paramount. The field position battle could be crucial. No short fields for the opponent, please. Let our defense defend 80 yards not 25 yards. No cavalierly gifting Illinois (1) 3 (or 7) points AND (2) the game's momentum, EARLY IN THE GAME on a failed 4th down play deep in our own territory. Save the high-risk, low-return 4th down plays in our own territory for late in the game, if necessary.

Go Gophers.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
Maybe the Gophers' offense will come alive and the Illinois defense will wilt. Maybe our passing game will work, loosening up Illinois' tendency to stack the box and run blitz, in turn empowering our run game. We take control of the game and force Illinois to pass, diminishing the Chase Brown factor. That would be great.

But if both of our defenses are truly as advertised, that isn't going to happen. This will be a hard fought war for every yard and every point. Ball security will be paramount. The field position battle could be crucial. No short fields for the opponent, please. Let our defense defend 80 yard fields not 25 yards. No cavalierly gifting Illinois (1) 3 (or 7) points (2) and the game's momentum, EARLY IN THE GAME on a failed 4th down play deep in our own territory. Save the high-risk, low-return 4th down plays in our own territory for late in the game, if necessary.

Go Gophers.
Click to expand...
How do you think these defenses are being advertised? Vegas is advertising this game as a ~24-17 Minnesota victory. Is this in line with your expectations of the defenses? Just curious, not arguing with you or anything.
 


Com_Cool said:
How do you think these defenses are being advertised? Vegas is advertising this game as a ~24-17 Minnesota victory. Is this in line with your expectations of the defenses? Just curious, not arguing with you or anything.
Click to expand...
Both defenses are being "advertised," via published NCAA statistics, as top defenses in the nation. They are also, statistically, the No.1 and No.2 defenses in the B1G. Some highlights: No team in FBS yields fewer yards per play (3.7) than Illinois--nobody. And no team in FBS gives up fewer yards per game than Minnesota (222)--nobody; Illinois gives up the second fewest yards per game (228), right behind the Gophers. No team in FBS gives up fewer points per game than Illinois (8.0); the Gophers give up the second fewest points per game in FBS (8.8). Five or six games into the season, with Big Ten play underway, these kind of statistics begin to take on some real meaning.

Vegas and bettors are clearly factoring in who the teams' respective opponents have been (many are "weak"), diminishing the strength of these indisputable statistics for betting purposes.

I have no personal expectation for this game. None. If the game turned out to be a defensive slugfest in which one team won 10-7, I wouldn't be surprised. If the game turned out to be 31-24, because there were lots of turnovers and short fields, and neither defense could contain the other team's great running back, I wouldn't be surprised. BUT, looking backwards at known data points, the cumulative statistics to date suggest to me that each team has a very good defense and that each defense might be "for real."

Games often turn out differently than advertised in the statistics, bet upon or expected by the pundits. There are so many other factors, including important psychological ones. That's why football is such a great sport.
 
Last edited:

MNVCGUY said:
That certainly needs to be taken into account with any teams early season stats (ours included). But Illinois did hold Wisconsin to 2 yards of rushing.....2....for Wisconsin. I didn't get to see that game because I was at the Gophers game but they shut down Wisconsin's run offense enough that the Badgers went away from it entirely. Allen and Mellusi had a combined 15 carries on the game.

Now this is not a great Wisconsin team but that is still impressive. There is a very good chance that the game Saturday will be really low scoring and it will come down to whichever team can execute in the passing game enough to keep the ball moving.

We absolutely have the best offense they have played to date but I think it is safe to say their defense is very good and playing at a really high level.

The thing that is being overlooked however is that our defense is also really good and playing at a very high level.
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone would overlook our defense. Our defensive ratings for the past two years are certainly known by the interested parties. I don't think either team will score a lot in this game.

The central question is whether or not our offense is able to adjust to Illinois' tremendous success so far this season in stopping the run. The 4 Power 5 teams they've played this season haven't come close to 100 yards rushing and all four of them averaged under 2 yards per carry (as you mentioned, Wisconsin had 2 rushing yards total!). As a result, all four of those opponents threw over 30 passes in their games. Tanner is 2-7 in starts where he has thrown 30 or more passes (29-6 when he's thrown fewer). One of those wins was against GA Southern in 2019 and the other was against Nebraska in the short pandemic year but we had over 200 rushing yards in that game.

The only Power 5 team to beat Illinois this year was Indiana but they threw 52 passes for 330 yards. Tanner hasn't had a 300 yard game since 2019. Either we're going to have to figure out a way to get greater productivity from the running game than what Illinois has allowed so far or we're going to have to be a lot more pass happy than our normal comfort level. I guess if it turns into a pass happy game for both teams, I think we'd have an advantage if Sitkowski is the starter.
 

Gophergrandpa said:
I have no personal expectation for this game. None. If the game turned out to be a defensive slugfest in which one team won 10-7, I wouldn't be surprised. If the game turned out to be 31-24, because there were lots of turnovers and short fields, and neither defense could contain the other team's great running back, I wouldn't be surprised.
Click to expand...

Good post but I personally would be quite surprised if this game score turned out to be 31-24.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom