Gophers open -7 @ NW

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hello-world said:
Minnesota will not earn a top 10 spot w/ a win over Northwestern.
They need to run up the score on UW to earn that spot.
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Not true at all. Entirely depends upon what the teams in front of us do. One or two loses from any of them they are moving up.
 


Sagarin has a much bigger spread. This means to me that the wise guys know that Morgan is very unlikely to play.
His head hit the ground at the start of the 4th quarter and twice at the end of the 4th. Before the second hit he was confused and Smith had to tell him what the play was then he went done again and then had to come out.
 

Need to get more of those inside dig routes from the running backs like Mo Ibrahaim, line on at third down play. That can break down the linebackers up and should free up the running game if we can freeze the backers with play action, hit those running backs with a few more passes.

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Plato said:
Sagarin has a much bigger spread. This means to me that the wise guys know that Morgan is very unlikely to play.
His head hit the ground at the start of the 4th quarter and twice at the end of the 4th. Before the second hit he was confused and Smith had to tell him what the play was then he went done again and then had to come out.
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Sagarin has a much bigger spread?


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die hard gopher said:
Huh?

Considering we were 29 point favorites at Rutgers before when we were 6-0 this makes no sense, with or without Tanner.
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This Rutgers team is historically bad and Northwestern is not good but better than their record.

That said I agree. It’s generally close to Sagarin so maybe they’re assuming a backup.
 

I just hope they win.

Possibly a true FR making his first career start, on the road in a meaningful game in November, against a Fitzgerald defense? Not ideal
 

Not ideal but better then having it happen against PSU, IA, or WIS this season.



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Plausible Deniability said:
I just hope they win.

Possibly a true FR making his first career start, on the road in a meaningful game in November, against a Fitzgerald defense? Not ideal
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They have an unreal DT and that's about it this year. Northwestern has some good athletes and I expect them to be competitive next year, but if Minnesota puts in the work this week then this game should be a locked win.

Their corners were struggling against one of the worst football teams in the country last week. UMN is trotting in there with 3 NFL-caliber receivers.

And that's before you look at the lopsided side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised if our DST outscores their offense.

First-time starter or no. Minnesota should win this game comfortably if they do the work.
 
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Kicking myself for not getting in on that -7 spread. To have it move over 5 points in 24 hours is crazy. 90% of the money must've come in on MN.
 

That is exactly what happened. The betting houses want as far as it is possible to a 50/50 distribution of the bets.
 

Reminds me of the 2014 game against San Jose State where Streveler started. Streveler was 1 and 7 for 7 yards - I remember the cheering when he got the one completion. The Gophers won 24-7, and if Morgan doesn't play, I expect well see something similar - rely on the defense and be vanilla on offense, trying to grind it out, and burn them on play action if they sell out against the run. Probably won't be a terribly exciting game, but if they can grind out a win, that's good.
 



hello-world said:
They have an unreal DT and that's about it this year. Northwestern has some good athletes and I expect them to be competitive next year, but if Minnesota puts in the work this week then this game should be a locked win.

Their corners were struggling against one of the worst football teams in the country last week. UMN is trotting in there with 3 NFL-caliber receivers.

And that's before you look at the lopsided side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised if our DST outscores their offense.

First-time starter or no. Minnesota should win this game comfortably if they do the work.
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This sounds right to me.

I hope Kramer gets his first start. Even if Morgan isn't concussed, let him rest up for Wisc.


So of course, that probably means Morgan will start.
 

RodentRampage said:
Reminds me of the 2014 game against San Jose State where Streveler started. Streveler was 1 and 7 for 7 yards - I remember the cheering when he got the one completion. The Gophers won 24-7, and if Morgan doesn't play, I expect well see something similar - rely on the defense and be vanilla on offense, trying to grind it out, and burn them on play action if they sell out against the run. Probably won't be a terribly exciting game, but if they can grind out a win, that's good.
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The Gophers aren’t a good enough running team and Northwestern is too good on defense to do a game like this. Gophs might win but we will be biting nails in the 4th.

I bet this is still a good passing team even with Clark or Kramer at QB. Run our offense.
 

I remember in 2016 when Leidner went down and Rhoda started against Maryland on the road and won.

Northwestern has a bad offense, and that's an understatement. There's a very good chance they don't score and highly likely they're held under 10 points.

Yeah they beat us at home last year, but that has nothing to do with this year. Illinois, Maryland, and Nebraska blew is out last year and look what happened this year.

The Wildcats are significantly overmatched in this one even without Tanner.


So, yeah. Not worried about this one. Gophers cover easy. 31-6

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RogueGopher said:
I remember in 2016 when Leidner went down and Rhoda started against Maryland on the road and won.
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Good comp. We won by 3 TDs with Rhoda throwing 15 passes - and he probably should've attempted far fewer. It also seems pretty clear that either of Clark or Kramer is vastly more talented than Rhoda.
 


Wow, continues to move up. How common is it for a line to move by almost a TD? One of two things: 1) Way too much money coming in on MN or 2) Solid belief now that Morgan will play.
 

With the 6 man line, Cozmo Kramer could complete more passes than Streveler and Rhoda! Not surprised at all that the line is moving.

More concerned about Dunlap's availability than Morgan.
 

die hard gopher said:
Line up to 13.5
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I do not like it when a line moves this much. First off, the game should have been off line waiting on injury status for Morgan. That line at 7 is very suspicious and for a line to move that far shows huge money coming on the Gophers. The Gophers have been shut out twice in a row in Evanston and there is a long long list of games that the Gophers thought they should beat the Wildcats and came home with a loss. They had better not take the Cats for granted - they could lose this game if they are still thinking about Iowa or looking ahead to Wisconsin. If I were betting, I would take Northwestern +13.5 because I do not like that line move.
 

cncmin said:
This. I don't get why this board is so confident that heading to Northwestern would be easy. Isn't NW the team that last beat the Gophers prior to @Iowa, and they did it at TCF Bank Stadium? Wasn't NW the only other team to beat us since the Rossi change to DC? Didn't they hold our O to only a couple of TDs at home last year? I posted in another thread that a GH-projected line of -14 seemed way too high to me; -7 seems more appropriate. Especially now that Morgan is questionable and after NW just found a running game.
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Because this is a historically bad NW team.
They will be starting a WO freshman at DE. 4 of of their top 5 DEs are out.
Missing top two RBs, and they can only play Evan Hull one more game to keep his redshirt. Save him for the Illinois rivalry game?
Missing both top Qbs, they are Rutgers level at QB
Top WR
Top CB
So while they beat us last year when they won the west, this year they have 2 wins, and have fallen apart. If they were getting a bunch of players back healthy, sure, maybe.
 

Section2 said:
Because this is a historically bad NW team.
They will be starting a WO freshman at DE. 4 of of their top 5 DEs are out.
Missing top two RBs, and they can only play Evan Hull one more game to keep his redshirt. Save him for the Illinois rivalry game?
Missing both top Qbs, they are Rutgers level at QB
Top WR
Top CB
So while they beat us last year when they won the west, this year they have 2 wins, and have fallen apart. If they were getting a bunch of players back healthy, sure, maybe.
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Starting RT and #3 WR are also out.
 

Section2 said:
Because this is a historically bad NW team.
They will be starting a WO freshman at DE. 4 of of their top 5 DEs are out.
Missing top two RBs, and they can only play Evan Hull one more game to keep his redshirt. Save him for the Illinois rivalry game?
Missing both top Qbs, they are Rutgers level at QB
Top WR
Top CB
So while they beat us last year when they won the west, this year they have 2 wins, and have fallen apart. If they were getting a bunch of players back healthy, sure, maybe.
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The Las Vegas oddsmakers know all this. They have my highest respect in that they know how to sucker in as many people as possible the wrong way and they may not know the final score, but they know how people are going to bet it. When a line comes out at -7 on this game and they do not even have Tanner Morgan's health status, it seems very suspicious to me. They know a ton of money is coming in on the Gophers, especially if Morgan is cleared to play. Watch the line move at the end of the week. When a line moves this far I have just seen it go the other way an awful lot. Watch out for this one!
 

This is a horrifically bad Northwestern team, and they've gotten worse as the season has wore on due to injuries piling up.

They failed to cover against UMass, which has one of the worst defenses in NCAA history.

The two teams they have beaten have a combined 3 total wins.

The -7 spread was a joke, even if Morgan doesn't play. If he is healthy it should be closer to 20.
 

BeerFueledFF said:
This is a horrifically bad Northwestern team, and they've gotten worse as the season has wore on due to injuries piling up.

They failed to cover against UMass, which has one of the worst defenses in NCAA history.

The two teams they have beaten have a combined 3 total wins.

The -7 spread was a joke, even if Morgan doesn't play. If he is healthy it should be closer to 20.
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I hope you are right of course. We really need this one and I hope we bring our best and win going away!
 

Gold Rush said:
The Las Vegas oddsmakers know all this. They have my highest respect in that they know how to sucker in as many people as possible the wrong way and they may not know the final score, but they know how people are going to bet it. When a line comes out at -7 on this game and they do not even have Tanner Morgan's health status, it seems very suspicious to me. They know a ton of money is coming in on the Gophers, especially if Morgan is cleared to play. Watch the line move at the end of the week. When a line moves this far I have just seen it go the other way an awful lot. Watch out for this one!
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They always know something:

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Yes, consensus now has Gophers as a 13.5 point favorite.

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MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS @ NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
12:00 PM Game TimeRecordLineBetting Trend
TeamsWin-LossStreakOpenCurrentSpreadMoneyO/U
149 Minnesota(9-1) (3-1 A)L-1-7-13.594%n/a10%
150 Northwestern(2-8) (2-4 H)W-138.0406%n/a90%

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