Gophers now a 10 seed

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Dano564

Dano564

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On the bracketmatrix consolidated picks, we are now the 3rd #10 seed. Appears a good amount of brackets have been re-done since the Purdue game which moved us up about 4 spots (3rd 11th seed) from yesterday. (If I take only brackets updated in the last 24 hours, we average the 2nd #10 seed.

Florida, NC State, and St. John's are three teams they passed.

Of the 56 brackets updated in the last 24-48 hours, they fall into the following seeds this many times:

8 seed: 1
9 seed: 13
10 seed: 26
11 seed: 16
12 seed: 0

I will add that this is why I believe the Gophers are already in.
To lose their spot, they would need a couple bids stolen by others and then have to be beat out by teams that currently appear behind them.

All of these teams would need to improve their resume with one game left (and tournaments) (plus at least one other bid to get stolen for us to slide out. With Gophers remaining schedule they won't incur a bad loss.
Also, TCU and Texas (who is just ahead of us) play each other, so one will likely fall further behind us after that game while neither will gain too much with that win. (TCU would not pass us if they beat TX for example).

St. John's
Utah State
Ohio State
Florida
North Carolina State
Seton Hall
TCU
Arizona State
Clemson
Alabama
 

If we beat Maryland on the road and then win our first game in the BTT, I wonder what the chances are that we slide up to like a 7 seed? Obviously that would include us definitely getting some help
 

MinnGopher said:
If we beat Maryland on the road and then win our first game in the BTT, I wonder what the chances are that we slide up to like a 7 seed? Obviously that would include us definitely getting some help
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Depends who the BTT win is against.
A win over Maryland would put us 4-8 in Quad 1's. Team around that area for Q1 wins are Louisville, Iowa, Oklahoma, Baylor, Ole Miss. A #8 would seem pretty safe.

If we got a good matchup (Penn St) and win a tournament game against a top 50 NET team on neutral site, that would be another one. That would put us at 5-9 should we lose the game after. That could get us to 7 territory.
 

It's almost would it be in our best interest to lose the next two games in order to avoid an 8 or 9 seed? Historically, wonder if seed 8, 9, 10, or 11 has he best chance of advancing to the sweet sixteen?
 

ltf said:
It's almost would it be in our best interest to lose the next two games in order to avoid an 8 or 9 seed? Historically, wonder if seed 8, 9, 10, or 11 has he best chance of advancing to the sweet sixteen?
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I'm going to guess the 10 seed but who knows...after what Facethefacts said above, I'm almost kind of with you on that. Slide into an 11 spot maybe and get a 6 seed who is streaky, and then a 3? Or do we just want to win a game and get in? If so maybe we do want an 8/9 or a 7 if possible
 


ltf said:
It's almost would it be in our best interest to lose the next two games in order to avoid an 8 or 9 seed? Historically, wonder if seed 8, 9, 10, or 11 has he best chance of advancing to the sweet sixteen?
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No I hope we just keep winning and build momentum and keep winning but I get your point with the seeding
 

The other plus of the very weak bubble is that your opponents in 7/10 games and 8/9 games should be very beatable.
 

8/9

ltf said:
It's almost would it be in our best interest to lose the next two games in order to avoid an 8 or 9 seed? Historically, wonder if seed 8, 9, 10, or 11 has he best chance of advancing to the sweet sixteen?
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Teams should not be afraid of being an 8/9 seed. Heck Kansas St as a 9 got to play 16th seeded UMBC last year in the Rd of 32.
 

ltf said:
It's almost would it be in our best interest to lose the next two games in order to avoid an 8 or 9 seed? Historically, wonder if seed 8, 9, 10, or 11 has he best chance of advancing to the sweet sixteen?
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I am from Minnesota. I am not playing that game. If we played the let's go for a lower seed game, I could easily see a record number of bid steals from smaller conferences, and barely on the bubble teams getting hot in their conference tournaments, and us on the outside looking in. A win tonight allows them to play pretty loose in Chicago and anything could happen.
 



Ope3 said:
Teams should not be afraid of being an 8/9 seed. Heck Kansas St as a 9 got to play 16th seeded UMBC last year in the Rd of 32.
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Especially teams like us who have little business looking beyond the first game anyway.

Ope, are you going to Chicago?
 

At this point I do not plan on going, slim chance plans could change especially if the Gophers find themselves in an evening bracket. Just had too much going on that I could not commit to 4-5 days in Chicago as much as I have enjoyed the event.

Hope to make it back to Indy in 2020!
 

Holy Man said:
I am from Minnesota. I am not playing that game. If we played the let's go for a lower seed game, I could easily see a record number of bid steals from smaller conferences, and barely on the bubble teams getting hot in their conference tournaments, and us on the outside looking in. A win tonight allows them to play pretty loose in Chicago and anything could happen.
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Point taken. Win to keep bid stealers our of play. Just something that comes up every year. Is it better to have a lower seed than an 8 or 9. I cant find any historical data on this, would think it would exist somewhere.
 

Who are the #1 or #2 seeds you would want to see in a 2nd round matchup?

Duke
Virginia
Tennessee
Gonzaga

North Carolina
Kentucky
 



ltf said:
Point taken. Win to keep bid stealers our of play. Just something that comes up every year. Is it better to have a lower seed than an 8 or 9. I cant find any historical data on this, would think it would exist somewhere.
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Historical data:

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

One interesting thing is that a #8 (19.8%) is almost twice as likely to upset the #1 than the #9 (10.5%), though 8s only have an 84-76 edge on 9s heads up.
 

I love seeing these reports, but they are building up expectations that I can see come crashing down on selction Sunday. It is what I have come to expect as a Gopher Sports fan...I hope I'm wrong.
 

Just win as much as you can and let the chips fall where they may.

I get it though, I would much rather have a 6, 7, 10, or 11 seed than 8 or 9.

The difference between a 8/9 seed and a 1 are fairly significant. 11/3 isn't as large. Neither is 10/2.
 

Ope3 said:
Historical data:

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

One interesting thing is that a #8 (19.8%) is almost twice as likely to upset the #1 than the #9 (10.5%), though 8s only have an 84-76 edge on 9s heads up.
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Yeah, thats intetesting, thanks. Was also looking for some data on which seeds of 8 - 11 had the best chance historically to make the sweet 16. Do u have anythinh on that?
 

Whoo Hoo, we get the play in game!!!
 


ltf said:
Yeah, thats intetesting, thanks. Was also looking for some data on which seeds of 8 - 11 had the best chance historically to make the sweet 16. Do u have anythinh on that?
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Not as obvious, but the same link has that data. 8 & 9 look at how they did vs the #1s & #16 (singular UMBC only).

10 how they did vs the 2s & 15s.
11 how they did vs the 3s & 14s.

Each victory means a Sweet 16 appearance.
 


Ope3 said:
Not as obvious, but the same link has that data. 8 & 9 look at how they did vs the #1s & #16 (singular UMBC only).

10 how they did vs the 2s & 15s.
11 how they did vs the 3s & 14s.

Each victory means a Sweet 16 appearance.
Click to expand...

Looks like 10 is our best bet. Although if we want to get further in the tourney, we should want 11 as they have a 3-4 record vs 1s.
 

Jeshurun said:
Looks like 10 is our best bet. Although if we want to get further in the tourney, we should want 11 as they have a 3-4 record vs 1s.
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True, but 8s have more Final 4 showings (5), plus have advanced to the Title Game 3 times and even Won it once (Nova).

The 9, 10 and 11s have never won a game in the Final 4.

Final 4s:

9 - 1
10 - 1
11 - 4
 

Here's what it comes down to. Keep in mind when I say a team has an x% chance of making the sweet 16, that's from when they are first in the tournament, not once they've already won their first game.

An 8 seed has a 52.5% chance of making the round of 32 and a 10% chance at making sweet 16.

A 9 seed has the best chance of 9 and below seeds to make the round of 32 at 47.5% but only a 5% chance of making the sweet 16.

I'm not sure why but 8 seeds win almost twice as much against 1 seeds as 9 seeds. Given how close they are in the first round, I would assume that's partially the small sample size and partially outliers where the 8 seed should have been a better seed. Overall, the winner of the 8/9 game has roughly a 15% chance of making the sweet 16 and a team that plays in the 8/9 game has a 7.5% chance.

A 10 seed has a 39% chance of making the round of 32 and a 17% chance of making the sweet 16. They have much better success against 2/15 seeds than 8/9s have against 1/16 but significantly fewer make that round.

An 11 seed has a 36.5% chance of making the round of 32 and a 13.5% chance of making the sweet 16. This is only counting once they make it to the round of 64 so if you consider that only 67% of 11 seeds make it there, those numbers go down to about 24.3% and 9%.

A 12 seed has a 32% chance of making the round of 32 and a 13% chance of making the sweet 16.



8 and 9 seeds are by far the best if you're looking to get out of the first round. If you assume that 8 and 9 seeds should be about equally successful against 1 seeds and that the huge difference is not representative of the odds this year, your odds at making the sweet 16 are more than twice as good as a 10 seed than an 8/9 but there is a significantly higher chance that you don't make it out of the first round.

If you could choose, 8 and 10 are by far the best options. Which one you choose depends on what you prioritize. Given Pitino's lack of success in the tournament, I'd rather be an 8 seed this year because the first tournament win would mean so much. But there's also a very good argument to be made for the 10 seed.

Even though they have an easier path in the next round, the 11 seed and 12 seed seem to both be poor options. I'd rather be an 8 or 9 than either of those. When you consider how bad projections can be, I'd rather be fighting for the best seed possible than go for a 10 seed because there's a risk of dropping down.

Keep in mind these numbers aren't perfect to use for this because 12 seeds are usually worse than 8 seeds so it's impossible to tell how much of the success is from the team being better and how much is from the opponent being worse. If it was the same team in all of these spots, the lower seeds would probably look a bit better.
 

Jeshurun said:
Looks like 10 is our best bet. Although if we want to get further in the tourney, we should want 11 as they have a 3-4 record vs 1s.
Click to expand...

That's a small enough sample size that you can't really take anything from it. For getting into the final 4, I'm sure an 8 seed is the best of 8 and up.
 

If we win our next 5... what seed would that bump us up to? ?
 

ltf said:
It's almost would it be in our best interest to lose the next two games in order to avoid an 8 or 9 seed? Historically, wonder if seed 8, 9, 10, or 11 has he best chance of advancing to the sweet sixteen?
Click to expand...

No. While I agree, I'd rather be a 10 seed than 8/9, we're not at that point. First of all we're not 100% safe to get in. And if they use the NET for seeding, we may be seeded lower than we think. Losing both could put us in Dayton.
 

Am surprised how much more frequently 10 - 12 seeds get to sweet sixteen than 8, 9 seeds. Thought it might be more but not by that much. So the question is would a team rather get a 10 - 12 seed which gives an historically much greater chance at the sweet 16, or an 8, 9 seed which gives a much smaller chance at sweet 16. The carrot for 8, 9 is a much greater chance of continuing winning if sweet 16 is indeed reached. Interesting.
 



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