Gophers @ ND

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bonin21

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By most indications, this is a must sweep away series if the Gophers want any chance of making the tournament (other than a Big Ten tournament win).

So let's see if they step up.
 

I've kind of accepted the fact that we will need to win the BIG tournament, but this series (and next weekend for that matter) will be a great test. Curious to see how they respond after Saturday's 3rd period meltdown. Guessing Lafontaine gets the start tonight, but that will be an interesting storyline as well.
 


bonin21 said:
By most indications, this is a must sweep away series if the Gophers want any chance of making the tournament (other than a Big Ten tournament win).

So let's see if they step up.
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Yes they did! Go Gophers!
 

Lady Gopher said:
Yes they did! Go Gophers!
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Actually, it wasn't all good.

The game goes down as a tie in the pairwise ranking. That hurts and likely means the Gophers only path to the NCAA tournament is winning the Big Ten tournament. The extra point gained in the shootout helps the hope to get the all important first round bye in the Big Ten tournament.
 



bonin21 said:
Actually, it wasn't all good.

The game goes down as a tie in the pairwise ranking. That hurts and likely means the Gophers only path to the NCAA tournament is winning the Big Ten tournament. The extra point gained in the shootout helps the hope to get the all important first round bye in the Big Ten tournament.
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WRONG!!! It's not their only path,

That tie did not hurt us as bad as you are making it out.

I mean, we moved up from #18 or was it #19 up to a tie for 17th.

We already have the comparison against ND. But a win surely would have helped us catch up to the teams ahead of us more quickly. And it may mean we won't be able to afford a future loss that we could have?

But if we go 5-0 from here on out, no way we are totally out of it.

Of the teams ahead of us in the PWR or tied with us, 3 of the 4 have only RPI going in their favor and are within range for us to catch them. Ohio St only has us in Common Opponents, so for every game we win and they don't, we could flip that comparison from 2-3 to 3-2. We flip that comparison that gets us to 43 and drops OSU down to 45 in a tie with Q for that coveted 14th spot. PSU's advantage over us is 3-1, basically their 2-0-0 advantage over us in the heads up. If we sweep them, that evens it out to 1-1, dropping them from 49 to 48. Now that won't flip the comparison to us, but winning those 2 games could flip the Common Opp comparison with OSU as I've already mentioned and it could flip a comparison or two or three with Providence, Maine and Q, who all only have RPI over us as PSU is a highly rated opponent. Then WMU has both RPI and Common Opp over us, switching either of them drops them down from 42 to 41, flipping both of them bumps us up to 43 or 44, and into a tie with Maine if we haven't passed them in RPI yet?

UMn's at .5312 with 42 PWR
Prov's at .5335* with 42 PWR
WMU's at .5336 with 42 PWR
Mne's at .5351* with 44 PWR
Quin's at .5352* with 45 PWR
OSU's at .5391* with 46 PWR and they occupy the #13 spot in the PWR with
BSU's at .5409 with 46 PWR
UMsL's at .5409 with 47 PWR and they occupy the very safe #12 spot in the PWR.
PSU's at .5472 with 49 PWR and may be the last of the #3 seeds?

So just by winning and improving our RPI we could flip the comparisons with Prov, Maine & Q, all 3 who seem to be within range, as long as they don't improve, that is. Our worst future opponent is 21st ND tonight & then 20th in the PWR Michigan, our best is #11 PSU. We have no where to go but up if we keep winning. Not saying those teams ahead of us might not play better opponents, but they may also play worse ones, and if they lose any games and we win, well, there are a ton of ways we can move up as long as we keep winning.

Best thing about passing up Providence in RPI, is that we might pass up WMU at the same time, that drops them both down to 41 PWR, and bumps us up to 44 or 45/46 if we flip the Comm Opp comparisons I mentioned above. Then if we can keep winning we could come close to passing up Maine/Q at the same time in the RPI, which would knock them down to 43 and 44, and would move us up to 46 or 47/48.

Wow, without even flipping the OSU comparison we move into a tie with them and BSU, and tied for that coveted #14 spot. Now, going into the B1G tourney, a heads up match up with PSU in the Semis could give us a chance to flip our comparison with them, so now our best case scenario is anywhere from 47 to 50, because if we gain the comparison with PSU, that bumps us up another PWR point. Now PSU would already been bumped down to 48, and we could be tied with them or ahead of them, and we could pass UMass-Lowell who is at 47, as well. So now we are not only into the tourney, but fighting for a #3 seed. And a matchup with OSU in the Semis could also help us if we win of course. What we don't want to see in the Semis probably is Wisc or MSU or Mich, as we don't really gain as much by beating any of them, except getting a slight bump in our RPI maybe, and playing the weaker opponent would help I suppose in that it's better to beat the weaker opponent than to lose to the better one, and not dropping might help us if someone else we are battling with loses in their conf tourneys?

So, that is probably our ceiling, 11th. But if we win 6 in a row before losing the Conf Title game, I think we get in safely, and might even vie for a #3 seed, but of course all the teams ahead of us could win enough to keep pace with our improving RPI and comm opp record, etc., so we never know, and some of them could lose several games and help us out and we could maybe even afford to lose a game or two along the way? I mean, with every loss it makes it that much harder obviously, but 5-1 going into the Conf title game might have us in already?


So tonight's game is important, but I think next weekend vs PSU will be the determining factor of whether we get in or not. So many ways to gain ground on everyone next weekend.
 

Man this is a lot of writing no one will read.

I said "likely". 5-0 is unlikely.
 






Do you understand what likely and unlikely mean lol. Obviously I want the Gophers to win the next four. Two games at PSU next weekend, the team that has owned the Gophers for years. Probably a 10% chance of a sweep there. Hoping for 10% to hit.
 

bonin21 said:
Do you understand what likely and unlikely mean lol. Obviously I want the Gophers to win the next four. Two games at PSU next weekend, the team that has owned the Gophers for years. Probably a 10% chance of a sweep there. Hoping for 10% to hit.
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JUST IN, UMn's up to #13 in the PWR, just upped from 42 comparisons to 46.

Their RPI jumped up past several teams. ALL THE ONES I POINTED OUT!!!!!



Seems your doom and gloom extreme negativity was proven VERY WRONG.

Now granted, there are still a lot of games going on, so we could drop back down some by the end of the night, but it just goes to show you how if we just keep winning, we'll have a great chance of getting in.
 



KillmeNow said:
JUST IN, UMn's up to #13 in the PWR, just upped from 42 comparisons to 46.

Their RPI jumped up past several teams. ALL THE ONES I POINTED OUT!!!!!



Seems your doom and gloom extreme negativity was proven VERY WRONG.

Now granted, there are still a lot of games going on, so we could drop back down some by the end of the night, but it just goes to show you how if we just keep winning, we'll have a great chance of getting in.
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Where do you see 13? USCHO has us at 16
 

Whytetale said:
Where do you see 13? USCHO has us at 16
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They update constantly, so after our game ended, we moved up to #13, but as I said, there were more games still in progress, and by the end of the night, we settled in at #16, still better than at the start of the night. We were tied for 17th going on, we separated ourselves from the 2 teams we were tied with, and passed up Quinipiac.

A sweep of PSU next weekend would be huge!!!
 

That said, we've struggled with PSU recently. With two games in hand, a split next weekend plus 1st place in the B1G on the line should be added incentive for good crowds the following week against Michigan.
 


jimbo morgan said:
I read it, but I have to agree with you that sweeping Penn State is "unlikely."
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Well, as it stands, a split might be all we need. They'll need to play well, but I don't think a sweep is so out of the question. They are playing better now than they were early in the season. I guess we'll have to wait and see?
 

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