Gophers Journey to the Tourney: Updated Through Michigan

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SelectionSunday

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Through Michigan game (18-7, 6-6 B1G)
This scenario done in mind that the Gophers lose their first B1G Tournament game. To feel completely safe on Selection Sunday, no questions asked, Gophers need to go 9-9 in the B1G, making them 21-10 heading to D.C. The bubble is extraordinarily weak, and at present the Gophers are nowhere near the cutline.

Gophers Journey to the Tourney (Do This, It's Lock City)
ABSOLUTE "MUST WINS" (4-1)
1 @ Penn State (L, 0-1)
2 Iowa (W, 1-1)
3 @ Rutgers (W, 2-1)
4 Penn State
5 Nebraska

SPLIT THE "EITHER WAYS" (4-4)
1 Michigan State (L, 0-1)
2 @ Northwestern (W, 1-1)
3 Ohio State (W, 2-1)
4 @ Ohio State (L, 2-2)
5 Maryland (L, 2-3)
6 @ Illinois (W, 3-3)
7 Indiana (W, 4-3)
8 Michigan (W, 5-3)

"STEAL ONE" (1-4)
1 @ Purdue (W, 1-0)
2 @ Michigan State (L, 1-1)
3 Wisconsin (L, 1-2)
4 @ Maryland
5 @ Wisconsin
 

We're half way to our "steal a couple" target of two wins!

Go Gophers!!
 


Like the chart but since the very first "steal a couple" went the gophers way, perhaps this Purdue game can be moved up to must wins and make "steal a couple" 2-4.
 

macgopher said:
Like the chart but since the very first "steal a couple" went the gophers way, perhaps this Purdue game can be moved up to must wins and make "steal a couple" 2-4.
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No changes, sorry. Defeats the original purpose. We'll roll with this.
 


SelectionSunday said:
No changes, sorry. Defeats the original purpose. We'll roll with this.
Click to expand...

How much does your 10-8 shift to 9-9 or even 8-10 if Arkansas does really well, or St. John's gets a couple of more big wins like they have?


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Ozzy&Ray said:
How much does your 10-8 shift to 9-9 or even 8-10 if Arkansas does really well, or St. John's gets a couple of more big wins like they have?


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Click to expand...

Start doing that and I'll be shifting it around after every game. Let the season play out!
 

SelectionSunday said:
Start doing that and I'll be shifting it around after every game. Let the season play out!
Click to expand...

I didn't mean shifting it now. Looking ahead, if Arkansas continues to have a good year, and St. John's continues with some big wins, do you see that making a significant difference.

No worries, fun to read your takes and appreciate the time you put into this. It's great to have a unique Gopher take on it.


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1 down, 2 to go in the "Either Way" category.

Go Gophers!!
 



Updating SS original post

This scenario done in mind that the Gophers lose their first B1G Tournament game. To feel completely safe on Selection Sunday, no questions asked, I think the Gophers need to go 10-8 in the B1G, making them 22-9 heading to D.C.

Gophers Journey to the Tourney (Do This And It's Lock City)
ABSOLUTE "MUST WINS" (5-0)
1 @ Penn State
2 Iowa
3 @ Rutgers
4 Penn State
5 Nebraska

SPLIT THE "EITHER WAYS" (3-3)
1 Michigan State (L, 0-1)
2 @ Northwestern (W, 1-1)
3 Ohio State
4 @ Illinois
5 Maryland
6 Michigan

"STEAL" A COUPLE (2-5)
1 @ Purdue (W, 1-0)
2 @ Michigan State
3 Wisconsin
4 @ Ohio State
5 Indiana
6 @ Maryland
7 @ Wisconsin


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Man, what a start to conference play. Who could have predicted this?
 


I truly don't believe Indiana should be under the "steal" category. They've shown some big weaknesses, and we arguably have a better resume than them up to this point. That plus the fact that we're at home for that one, no reason that shouldn't be in the "toss up" category.

Also not that we could have imagined this before B1G play, but I think the Nebraska home game is just as concerning (for lack of a better term, not that I'm necessarily concerned) as the Indiana game will be. Yet they are in polar categories. Anyways, I like this breakdown into categories of wins to get to the big dance. Thanks for putting this together!
 



SelectionSunday said:
This scenario done in mind that the Gophers lose their first B1G Tournament game. To feel completely safe on Selection Sunday, no questions asked, I think the Gophers need to go 10-8 in the B1G, making them 22-9 heading to D.C.

Gophers Journey to the Tourney (Do This And It's Lock City)
ABSOLUTE "MUST WINS" (5-0)
1 @ Penn State
2 Iowa
3 @ Rutgers
4 Penn State
5 Nebraska

SPLIT THE "EITHER WAYS" (3-3)
1 Michigan State (L, 0-1)
2 @ Northwestern (W, 1-1)
3 Ohio State
4 @ Illinois
5 Maryland
6 Michigan

"STEAL" A COUPLE (2-5)
1 @ Purdue (W, 1-0)
2 @ Michigan State
3 Wisconsin
4 @ Ohio State
5 Indiana
6 @ Maryland
7 @ Wisconsin
Click to expand...
This needs to be made a little harder;)
 

SelectionSunday said:
This scenario done in mind that the Gophers lose their first B1G Tournament game. To feel completely safe on Selection Sunday, no questions asked, I think the Gophers need to go 10-8 in the B1G, making them 22-9 heading to D.C.

Gophers Journey to the Tourney (Do This And It's Lock City)
ABSOLUTE "MUST WINS" (5-0)
1 @ Penn State
2 Iowa
3 @ Rutgers
4 Penn State
5 Nebraska

SPLIT THE "EITHER WAYS" (3-3)
1 Michigan State (L, 0-1)
2 @ Northwestern (W, 1-1)
3 Ohio State
4 @ Illinois
5 Maryland
6 Michigan

"STEAL" A COUPLE (2-5)
1 @ Purdue (W, 1-0)
2 @ Michigan State
3 Wisconsin
4 @ Ohio State
5 Indiana
6 @ Maryland
7 @ Wisconsin
Click to expand...

Stealing from your formula for competing for the Big Ten Title:

Must wins: 5-0
Splits:5-1 We are now 2-1 this is doable
Steal a couple: 3-4 We are 1-0 winning 2 of those remaining 6 is not a stretch

Just dreaming a little here.
 



bga1 said:
Stealing from your formula for competing for the Big Ten Title:

Must wins: 5-0
Splits:5-1 We are now 2-1 this is doable
Steal a couple: 3-4 We are 1-0 winning 2 of those remaining 6 is not a stretch

Just dreaming a little here.
Click to expand...

The category that scares me the most is the 5 and 0 category. Those are sooo hard to win as a coach. I mean we are not vastly superior to anyone. We are well coached and playing great! We have balance and depth. But we don't have one guy we can ride...that's good because different guys are stepping up but Mason not playing well like tonight makes things ugly for stretches. Springs and Coffey were great! I think we can get to 10 and 8 and higher, if we can keep all hands on deck. Really fun to watch these guys compete night in and night out! But, I think every game is going to be a dogfight! We are tied for first!! Let's just stay there!!
 

60's Guy said:
The category that scares me the most is the 5 and 0 category. Those are sooo hard to win as a coach. I mean we are not vastly superior to anyone. We are well coached and playing great! We have balance and depth. But we don't have one guy we can ride...that's good because different guys are stepping up but Mason not playing well like tonight makes things ugly for stretches. Springs and Coffey were great! I think we can get to 10 and 8 and higher, if we can keep all hands on deck. Really fun to watch these guys compete night in and night out! But, I think every game is going to be a dogfight! We are tied for first!! Let's just stay there!!
Click to expand...

Agree with you, but if you lose one of those and pick up an extra game in one of the other two categories you're more than fine. Probably higher than you would've been otherwise, actually.


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Agree with you, but if you lose one of those and pick up an extra game in one of the other two categories you're more than fine. Probably higher than you would've been otherwise, actually.

Stole the words right out of my mouth. Feeling so much better about the rest of the categories now too!
 

The only gimme in this league is Rutgers and of course we have them on the road. Biggest concern in the "must win" category is Penn State on the road. Tough young team, a bit erratic, but good guards. No games can be taken lightly.

I'll add that there may be a team or two that goes south in the second half of the season. Maybe a reasonably talented team that has under performed or one that has a significant injury or two that starts to mail it in. Ohio State is looking like they could end up in that category. Others might as well. Those are the teams that need to be crushed when we get the chance.
 

This scenario is probably more likely than going undefeated in the 5-0 category. League is just too balanced from top to bottom. Even Rutgers has shown improvement and I better they knock off a team or two at home.
 


Breaking the B1G season down into a few chunks (sticking with SS's categories):

Intro (MSU, @PU, @NU, OSU): 3 "Splits" and 1 "Steal" (3-1)
Par was probably 2-2 or even 1-3, so definitely a great start.

Gut-check (@MSU, @PSU, uw, @OSU): 3 "Steals" and 1 "Must Win"
Par is probably 2-2 here, but even though 1-3 would be disappointing a 4-4 start would be right on SS's tourney trajectory. If we can pull off 3-1 then things get really exciting. This is almost certainly the most difficult stretch of the season, especially with PSU looking like a potential trap game, so even if we come back to earth a little the big picture view should be that we are in good shape.

Mid-Season (Mary, @IL, IA, @RU): 2 "Splits" and 2 "Must Wins"
Par is 3-1 or 4-0, but a dangerous stretch - if we are coming off a 1-3 stretch when Maryland comes to town we could end up 1-4 heading to a tough game in Champaigne. The easiest stretch of the conference season but might be the most critical. Going 4-0 would be huge heading into the home stretch.

Home Stretch (Indiana, Mich, @Mary, PSU, Neb, @uw): 3 "Steals," 1 "Split," and 2 "Must Wins"
Combination of must-wins and opportunities for statement wins. With 4 of 6 at home (and 5 of last 8 + @RU), if we take care of business Mid-Season closing the conference on a 7-2 or 8-2 run is not crazy.

Really excited for the next 16 days - by 8pm on the 25th we will know a lot more about what kind of team we have.
 

Preseason I thought Gophers would be 2-7 at the halfway point, then 5-4 the rest of the way. Still think second half looks much more manageable.

Can take a lot of pressure off second half of B1G season simply by winning 2 of their next 5, and the prospects for that look good right now. I'm not assuming a win anywhere, though. Been around too long for that.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Preseason I thought Gophers would be 2-7 at the halfway point, then 5-4 the rest of the way. Still think second half looks much more manageable.

Can take a lot of pressure off second half of B1G season simply by winning 2 of their next 5, and the prospects for that look good right now. I'm not assuming a win anywhere, though. Been around too long for that.
Click to expand...

Haven't we all!
 

SelectionSunday said:
Preseason I thought Gophers would be 2-7 at the halfway point, then 5-4 the rest of the way. Still think second half looks much more manageable.

Can take a lot of pressure off second half of B1G season simply by winning 2 of their next 5, and the prospects for that look good right now. I'm not assuming a win anywhere, though. Been around too long for that.
Click to expand...
I agree - I was most concerned we'd dig a hole in these first weeks and instead we're in first place. Great start to what we know is a long stretch. I'm enjoying every moment.
 

Pitinos track record has been the team plays best at the end of the season. Would be very very nice to see that continue with all things considered.
 

I agree with your analysis. Another sign of a good coach. And, How awesome would that be for us all again this year!!!
 


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