Gophers favored by 38.5?? Take the Aggies bigtime

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Thoughts on possible blowout score:

Reserves may be better than NMSU starters. Blowouts usually happen because second and third string’s of big time programs just can’t stop scoring because of the lack of quality in the other side and the eventual “give up” factor. Alabama’s third string 4 and 5 stars are still going to score. Minnesota’s third string 3 star players are most likely going to own NMSU’s backups.

Both coaches will be coaching to finish the game with no injuries. No real value to be had here in losing a player like Mo in this game. Look for PJ to sub early and often once in the lead. Same goes for Kill since he has rivalry game coming up and tired beat up players. Look for Gopher reserves to play way harder than NMSU.

Don’t undersell PJ trying to get rid of rivalry stigma. PJ has no incentive to run it up on Kill to further media interest.

Kill’s complaints about PJ’s need for change in culture are just plain stupid. Coming in after a coach that had 20+ players go on strike might just call for a culture change! To PJ’s credit I’ve seen articles praising the environment the coaching staff has created for all races of Gopher football players!
 




Taji34 said:
Calling it now, we beat the spread. I think we beat them by 45
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Gonna elaborate on this more.

You've got a some 6 year seniors on the offense with something to prove and will want to start the season hot. KC will likely feel like he has something to prove as well (i.e. Getting fired from Penn State was a fluke), and I have a feeling he will override some of the traditional conservativeness in the play calling.

The defense by all reports is looking like it will at least be as good as last year if not better even though there are key departures, so I think they handle NMSU's offense with ease. I'm not quite predicting a shutout, but that's mainly because . . .

We WILL see backups in this game. We will get a large lead, but Fleck honestly has no hard feelings for Kill and will want to save face where he can. KC will override some of the conservative play calling, but Fleck will signal that he's not running up the score just because he can by sending in the backups. 2nd string players will see playing time, maybe even 3rd string players. Morgan will be pulled earlier than usual for 2 reasons: To limit risk of injury in a game that's pretty much decided, and to get meaningful playing time for the backup QBs who will be vying for the position next year.
 

It'll depend on turnovers and special teams IMO. It's highly unlikely the offense will come out chucking it all over. We're run the ball twice as much as throw it by the end of the game. If the ST or defense scores a TD or the defense causes a bunch of turnovers, then I think they more than likely win by 38+. If not, highly unlikely. I hope I'm wrong.
 

GophersInIowa said:
It'll depend on turnovers and special teams IMO. It's highly unlikely the offense will come out chucking it all over. We're run the ball twice as much as throw it by the end of the game. If the ST or defense scores a TD or the defense causes a bunch of turnovers, then I think they more than likely win by 38+. If not, highly unlikely. I hope I'm wrong.
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In 2017, the Gophers scored 48 points at Oregon State. In that game, Minnesota had 8 passing attempts, and 58 rushing attempts.

In 2018, the Gophers scored 48 points vs New Mexico State at The Bank. In that game, Minnesota had 37 passing attempts and 47 rushing attempts.

In 2019, the Gophers beat Maryland 52-10. In that game, the Gophers had 22 passing attempts and 54 rushing attempts.

In 2022, the Gophers beat Northwestern 41-14. In that game, the Gophers had 17 passing attempts and 53 rushing attempts.

The Gophers under Fleck have proved that you don't have to "chuck it all over" to score a lot of points. Running the ball down your opponents' throats can in fact lead to blowout wins. A game plan based on controlling the clock and emphasizing ball control does not necessarily equate to low scoring outputs.
 

Said it in the other thread that was already made on this exact same subject:

- this game is equivalent of an NFL preseason week 1 game
- starters out early as possible
- playbook limited as possible
- run the ball as much as possible, shorten the game as much as possible once we're easily up 20+

Kill is going to run the ball, as well.


If we "only" win by 35, there you go.
 



Gold Rush said:
Could the Gophers beat this spread?? Absolutely. But they won't. First off, Jerry Kill has a major ax to grind and will do his very best to put on a major scare here. This is his Super Bowl and he will pull off all the stops. I don't think Fleck wants to roll this game even though he could - he will play a very vanilla offense with a lot of running in this game. Sure it would be fun to beat Kill with his big mouth 63-0 but I don't see this happening. Expect the Gophers if they do get up big to play everyone -- Gophers win but I am guessing by about 24 points, say 42-17 or so.

This is a VERY soft line. It should come down by gametime.
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Maybe 'ol Jer will finally call the 'stroke the post' play we were promised or will he be the constant RUTM coach that we got..?
 

highwayman said:
There’s no such thing as burning a redshirt. The 4 game limit can be used any time, any year.
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So what happens to their red shirt status if they play in five games in a season?
 





PMWinSTP said:
:unsure: If they play in four or fewer games, what is that called?
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A redshirt

It’s not a “status” though. You don’t declare redshirts at the beginning of the year to any sort of entity
 

Some guy said:
A redshirt

It’s not a “status” though. You don’t declare redshirts at the beginning of the year to any sort of entity
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This is true.

Every player's baseline is 5 calendar years to participate in 4 seasons. If you don't participate in one of the calendar years, then that's usually called a redshirt, but it's not any kind of thing where you need to apply for a waiver.
 

Some guy said:
A redshirt

It’s not a “status” though. You don’t declare redshirts at the beginning of the year to any sort of entity
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I never said you have to declare anything. Sort of symantics pulling out the word status, I could have used "opportunity" or "ability". Coaches, including Fleck, talk about redshirting players, and planning to do so.
 

To actually answer your question, though -- technically, the player could use that "redshirt year" in any year. It's not a thing where, if you don't use it your first year in the program, it's gone.

It's just that usually, if you're good enough to play right away, then you tend to keep playing each year after.
 

Gophers1992 said:
And if we played BG 100 more times we'd smoke them about 95 times. And NMSU is significantly worse than BG.
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Until PJ Fleck knows how to consistently handle so-called lesser teams I would never put money on the Gophers when they're heavy favorites.
Then again, I never bet on football. But if I did....
 

FredCoxRocks said:
Until PJ Fleck knows how to consistently handle so-called lesser teams I would never put money on the Gophers when they're heavy favorites.
Then again, I never bet on football. But if I did....
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I only bet on the gophers when they're underdogs


and I think I've one every bet

I was in Vegas one year, was it 2014, where winner of Wi/MN goes to B1G title game. Mn was up at half and leidner fell apart second half and Wi won, but MN covered, so I won my bet

Being in gopher gear, the amount of people that came up me to and congratulated the gophers on covering and making them money was comical

AT HALF TIME I WAS LOOKING HOTELS IN INDY
 

salzie said:
I only bet on the gophers when they're underdogs


and I think I've one every bet

I was in Vegas one year, was it 2014, where winner of Wi/MN goes to B1G title game. Mn was up at half and leidner fell apart second half and Wi won, but MN covered, so I won my bet

Being in gopher gear, the amount of people that came up me to and congratulated the gophers on covering and making them money was comical

AT HALF TIME I WAS LOOKING HOTELS IN INDY
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Thanks for jinxing us. Sheesh
 

This has to be one of the largest point spreads ever in a game between two FBS teams.
 

Goldmember said:
This has to be one of the largest point spreads ever in a game between two FBS teams.
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I suspect to find the others you just follow New Mexico St history.

Pretty sure though I've seen Alabama with 45...
 

PMWinSTP said:
I never said you have to declare anything. Sort of symantics pulling out the word status, I could have used "opportunity" or "ability". Coaches, including Fleck, talk about redshirting players, and planning to do so.
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For sure. But there is no status to pull

Either you play in 5 games or you don’t
 

mnsportsgeek said:
Overlooked that Maryland game. Tough line to cover. Especially with a Fleck team who probably will be happy to take a 20 point lead and burn the clock this early in the season.
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exactly what is going to happen.
 

With all this said - I hope the Gopher fans take the high road and give Jerry Kill a nice ovation to thank him for all he did for us here -- and then absolutely throttle them. That's the best way to handle this one!!
 

Gold Rush said:
With all this said - I hope the Gopher fans take the high road and give Jerry Kill a nice ovation to thank him for all he did for us here -- and then absolutely throttle them. That's the best way to handle this one!!
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I think it would be best just to ignore him. No clapping, no booing.
 

Some guy said:
How did that game turn out? I forget


How many years do you think we will have to go before we can be favored in a game without bringing up bowling green. Which wasn’t our most painful loss last year.

Actually I think it was our least painful in retrospect
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Never underestimate the ability of the Gophers to lower themselves to the level of a bad opponent.
 

Gold Rush said:
Could the Gophers beat this spread?? Absolutely. But they won't. First off, Jerry Kill has a major ax to grind and will do his very best to put on a major scare here. This is his Super Bowl and he will pull off all the stops. I don't think Fleck wants to roll this game even though he could - he will play a very vanilla offense with a lot of running in this game. Sure it would be fun to beat Kill with his big mouth 63-0 but I don't see this happening. Expect the Gophers if they do get up big to play everyone -- Gophers win but I am guessing by about 24 points, say 42-17 or so.

This is a VERY soft line. It should come down by gametime.
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Hmm don't forget the Bowling Green game.
 

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