Gophers favored by 38.5?? Take the Aggies bigtime

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Gold Rush

Gold Rush

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Could the Gophers beat this spread?? Absolutely. But they won't. First off, Jerry Kill has a major ax to grind and will do his very best to put on a major scare here. This is his Super Bowl and he will pull off all the stops. I don't think Fleck wants to roll this game even though he could - he will play a very vanilla offense with a lot of running in this game. Sure it would be fun to beat Kill with his big mouth 63-0 but I don't see this happening. Expect the Gophers if they do get up big to play everyone -- Gophers win but I am guessing by about 24 points, say 42-17 or so.

This is a VERY soft line. It should come down by gametime.
 

If the Gophers defense is even close to what it was last season, the Aggies may not score. 17 is way too much for them. I think they either get shut out or score 7 points max. They are a really bad team.
 

Gold Rush said:
Could the Gophers beat this spread?? Absolutely. But they won't. First off, Jerry Kill has a major ax to grind and will do his very best to put on a major scare here. This is his Super Bowl and he will pull off all the stops. I don't think Fleck wants to roll this game even though he could - he will play a very vanilla offense with a lot of running in this game. Sure it would be fun to beat Kill with his big mouth 63-0 but I don't see this happening. Expect the Gophers if they do get up big to play everyone -- Gophers win but I am guessing by about 24 points, say 42-17 or so.

This is a VERY soft line. It should come down by gametime.
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Jerry can pull out all the stops he wants. It doesn’t change the fact that his players are terrible and completely overmatched. And I’ll echo GWG in that I really doubt we give up 17 points if our defense is half as good as we think it is.
 




Gophers1992 said:
Unless you mean exactly 38, we beat Maryland by 42 in 2019.

It's also been a long time since we played anyone as bad as NMSU. It was NMSU in 2018.
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Overlooked that Maryland game. Tough line to cover. Especially with a Fleck team who probably will be happy to take a 20 point lead and burn the clock this early in the season.
 

There will be no scare. This game will be over halfway through the second quarter.
 

highwayman said:
There will be no scare. This game will be over halfway through the second quarter.
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I agree that there won't be a scare but that is where the big line becomes an issue since Fleck generally doesn't seem to try and run up the score. So if we are up big I could see them grinding the clock and really shortening the game, which in turn limits scoring opportunities for both sides.

I don't bet on games but if I did there would definitely be temptation to take NMSU to keep the final score closer than 38 even if they are in no way shape or form a threat to win the game by doing so.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I agree that there won't be a scare but that is where the big line becomes an issue since Fleck generally doesn't seem to try and run up the score. So if we are up big I could see them grinding the clock and really shortening the game, which in turn limits scoring opportunities for both sides.

I don't bet on games but if I did there would definitely be temptation to take NMSU to keep the final score closer than 38 even if they are in no way shape or form a threat to win the game by doing so.
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yeah all going to depend on if we hit big plays early in the game and if NMSU turns it over. I expect the game is over by half time, just a matter of if we put up 21 in the first or we slow play the whole game and are content to go risk avoidance against them and win the game something like 27-3. I'd imagine our second string will also be better than their guys and that Jerry will sub his second team in relatively early if it's out of hand, which may lead to some garbage time points being the reason the spread hits (like when we ripped off 21 points in the 4th with the 2nd and 3rd stringers vs NW)
 



upnorthkid said:
yeah all going to depend on if we hit big plays early in the game and if NMSU turns it over. I expect the game is over by half time, just a matter of if we put up 21 in the first or we slow play the whole game and are content to go risk avoidance against them and win the game something like 27-3. I'd imagine our second string will also be better than their guys and that Jerry will sub his second team in relatively early if it's out of hand, which may lead to some garbage time points being the reason the spread hits (like when we ripped off 21 points in the 4th with the 2nd and 3rd stringers vs NW)
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Jerry said his primary objective is to not have all his players hurt. Hell, he might pull his starters in the 2nd quarter.
 


Have a feeling this will end up being a hell of a ball game.
 

Gophers1992 said:
Jerry can pull out all the stops he wants. It doesn’t change the fact that his players are terrible and completely overmatched. And I’ll echo GWG in that I really doubt we give up 17 points if our defense is half as good as we think it is.
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Agreed.

In his first year here Jerry said they would "look great getting off the bus".

I don't doubt Jerry could make them a better team, game 1 ... hard to do.


Still don’t think we beat the spread.
 
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Even if fleck wants to play it conservative they may score a lot. You still hand the ball off.
 

I wouldn’t bet this game. I like how everyone with a take has zero to say about the team we are playing other than what we know of Kill.
 

I put very little credence in the Kill/Fleck sorta-drama having an effect on the game or making anyone try harder because of it.

I do think both teams are likely to play a slow pace and 38.5 is a lot for the Gophers or any team to cover. Historically the Gophers under Fleck have taken the foot off the gas big time around 21-28 up. That is if they can even get that far ahead.
 



Gophers1992 said:
Unless you mean exactly 38, we beat Maryland by 42 in 2019.

It's also been a long time since we played anyone as bad as NMSU. It was NMSU in 2018.
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Colorado last year was pretty bad.
 

My crystal ball says

A lot of red shirts will be coming off at this game
All first-strings will be pulled by end of 1st half
End result = 52-0
 

Aggies will be playing on 4 days rest and their big rivalry game vs UTEP is the following week. They'll collect their paycheck and get thrashed. Gophers cover.
 

I have a feeling that KC will want to “pad the stats” on offensive plays per game, and offensive explosive plays and pass yards per game.

Mike Sanford Jr would get ahead by 21, then burn 7 minutes a possession. Kneel it out on the 3 yard line with 2 minutes in the game. I just don’t think KC will do that.
 


Fleck seems to think this team has a chance to be special and to get to a top bowl we need to be ranked high...we need to pound the shit out of ol country jer and everyone we can....win by 50
 




Goldmember said:
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1) were an overwhelming 31-point favorite heading into their matchup on Saturday, September 25, 2021 against the Bowling Green Falcons (1-2).
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How did that game turn out? I forget


How many years do you think we will have to go before we can be favored in a game without bringing up bowling green. Which wasn’t our most painful loss last year.

Actually I think it was our least painful in retrospect
 

Some guy said:
How did that game turn out? I forget


How many years do you think we will have to go before we can be favored in a game without bringing up bowling green. Which wasn’t our most painful loss last year.

Actually I think it was our least painful in retrospect
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OSU was far less painful, we made a pretty good account of ourselves in front of the whole nation. Only terrible thing was Mo going down
 

Goldmember said:
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1) were an overwhelming 31-point favorite heading into their matchup on Saturday, September 25, 2021 against the Bowling Green Falcons (1-2).
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We were underdogs before beating Colorado by 30 on the road.

We were underdogs before beating #4 Penn State in 2019.

We were underdogs before beating Wisconsin both in 2018 and 2021.

All of these facts are irrelevant, as is the one about our game against Bowling Green
 

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