St. Johns rated higher on Sagarin than the Gophs as I write. Maybe not such a bad loss.
This season is playing out kinda similar to last year. Losses to Syracuse, Arkansas. Wins against Richmond and Florida State. I don't think our Wake win or our Georgia win this season would outweigh last year's non-conference wins.
Fortunately, as you mentioned, that loss to St. John's might not be all that bad and Louisville this year will be stronger than Syracuse last year.
The home Non-Conference schedule this year is much worse than it was last year though. Montana, Coastal Carolina, Wofford, and South Dakota St. all finished between 133-188 in the RPI last year. And we played no 300+ RPI teams. This year I don't think any of our home Non-con opponents will finish in the top 200 in RPI. Possibly Western Kentucky or UNC-Willmington, but they are no guarantee at this point.