Gophers currently #140 in RPI rankings

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SelectionSunday

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Only Rutgers (#156) and Indiana (#198) are lower. And that's with plenty of stinkers ahead in our "December to Remember."

Somehow hoping Gophs can get RPI to a manageable place (in the 70s) prior to Big Ten season.
 

Scheduling a couple of real games at home would have been wise.
 

jamiche said:
Scheduling a couple of real games at home would have been wise.
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Winning at least one of the two they lost would have helped, too. This is just a bad schedule that amps up the pressure in the regular season.
 

this may have been asked before but does margin of victory play into RPI at all?
 

SelectionSunday said:
Only Rutgers (#156) and Indiana (#198) are lower in the Big Ten. And that's with plenty of stinkers ahead in our "December to Remember."

Somehow hoping Gophs can get RPI to a manageable place (in the 70s) prior to Big Ten season.
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Hoping is fun but considering the remaining garbage non-conference schedule is it mathematically possible?
 


If we get snubbed on the bubble this year, we've got no one to blame but our own scheduling decisions. And our decision not to take the court for the second half against St. John's.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Only Rutgers (#156) and Indiana (#198) are lower. And that's with plenty of stinkers ahead in our "December to Remember."

Somehow hoping Gophs can get RPI to a manageable place (in the 70s) prior to Big Ten season.
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Did you notice that Wisconsin Green Bay is #1 and Holy Cross is #12 in ESPN's published RPI? I wouldn't be too concerned about RPI at this point of the season although I admit that there are reasons to be concerned about the Gopher's season.
 


cjbfbp said:
Did you notice that Wisconsin Green Bay is #1 and Holy Cross is #12 in ESPN's published RPI? I wouldn't be too concerned about RPI at this point of the season although I admit that there are reasons to be concerned about the Gopher's season.
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Yep, valid point. I understand that RPI is virtually worthless at this point, but nevertheless usually at this time of the season a team like the Gophers (perennial bubblers) isn't sitting in the mid-100s. That's a concern, especially considering there's no help on the way schedule-wise (in terms of who they play) between now and the Big Ten opener vs. Purdue. I'm sitting here hoping and praying Georgia and Saint John's (even though it was a loss) have really, really good (top-50ish) seasons.
 



Some more RPI stuff; Big Ten + Gopher non-conference opponents

For some reason Jerry Palm's RPI rankings are showing Louisville with a loss, so the #140 for the Gophers used above is slightly off. In this instance, we'll use my preferred back-up RPI site, warrennolan.com., for the current rankings. The Gophers remain 3rd worst in the Big Ten.

Big Ten
3. Wisconsin
21. Ohio State
37. Illinois
42. Michigan State
45. Iowa
57. Maryland
64. Penn State
66. Nebraska
69. Michigan
86. Northwestern
116. Purdue
132. GOPHERS
141. Rutgers
197. Indiana

Non-Conference Opponents
49. Louisville (4-0)
77. Saint John's (3-1)
125. UNC-Wilmington (2-2)
160. Wake Forest (4-3)
169. Western Carolina (2-4)
170. Georgia (3-3)
211. Western Kentucky (2-3)
243. Furman (1-4)
257. North Dakota (1-4)
262. Seattle (2-3)
334. UMBC (0-5)
335. Southern U (0-6)

Gonzaga -- who the Gophers would have played in NYC had they not fallen apart vs. Saint John's -- is 5-0 and ranked #1 in the RPI.
 

Apart from a rather unambitious home schedule (no power conference teams and few mid major to small conference teams of note), the big killer for the Gophers was the NIT Tip Off tourney imploding. The U of M likely expected a pair of on campus early round games against non power conference teams that still would help the resume followed by a higher caliber oppostion in New York (this tournament had Duke and Arizona just last year). Instead they faced bottom feeders at home in non elimination circumstances and then went to MSG where facing St. John's and Georgia was no shame, but where we missed out on Gonzaga.
 

And if we lose to Wake Forest can we make the NCCA without finishing in the top 5/6 of the conference? Not looking good.
 

1) Looking at RPI as of today is like planning a day at the beach next May based on the weather tomorrow.

2) Minnesota's RPI isn't 140. It's amazing, but for whatever reason most sites that claim to show RPI have bad - often times awful - data. It's just wrong. Minnesota's current RPI at the start of today was better than 140. Their Adjusted Winning Percentage was ~140.

3) Yes, the Gophers RPI will improve with wins.... if they beat Wake and walk over the cupcakes, their adjusted win loss record will improve from 2.2 - 1.6 to 6.8 - 1.6. That's an improvement from .5789 to .8095. At 25% of the RPI calc, that means an increase of .0576 simply due to winning those games.

If Minnesota had that winning percentage at the moment, their RPI would be a full 50 spots higher (64 instead of what it currently is - 114).

Big game tonight. Need to close this one out and win the rest. Then, .500 or better in the Big Ten and they'll be right in the conversation (in reg season... 9-9 and they may need to grab at least a win in the BTT, depending on opponent).
 



RPI is at 83 according to Warren Nolan now.. after the WF win.


I don't know what changed in our scheduling but it really changed from what it was.
We used to schedule RPI teams in that 100-200 range. Teams from small conferences that would go 0.500 or better in their conference.
None of these teams we are playing now from these smaller conferences are going to do crap.

We'll have to have a winning record in the Big Ten, or 0.500 record with a REALLY weak bubble to make it this year.

We went way to easy with the non-conference schedule.
 

Oh, and Green Bay played WI, so that's why they are high.
Knowing we play Wisconsin, that will balance out over the course of time.
 

Gophers now #70 after last night's win, per Jerry Palm, who has corrected his web site to reflect Louisville's perfect record.
 

One question that I have about the schedule this year......I'm struggling a little with the assertion that this year's schedule is historically bad as compared to other years. If you remove the ACC/B1G game, and the preseason tournament from the conversation (because the Gophers don't have any control over the opponents) you are left with a schedule that looks pretty comparable this year against last year to the average fan from a competitive standpoint. I do recognize that Syracuse/Arkansas/Florida State probably helped more than St. John's/Georgia/Wake Forest but how would you know that in advance?

So the RPI is that sensitive to the "quality" of the small conference teams that we play and is predictable enough a year or two in advance to guard against to make that big of a difference?

This Year: Louisville, UNC Wilmington, Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, Furman, North Dakota, Seattle, UMBC, Southern

Last Year: Lehign, Montana, Richmond, Coastal Carolina, Wofford, New Orleans, South Dakota State, Nebraska-Omaha, Texas A&M Corpus Christi
 

golfing18now said:
One question that I have about the schedule this year......I'm struggling a little with the assertion that this year's schedule is historically bad as compared to other years. If you remove the ACC/B1G game, and the preseason tournament from the conversation (because the Gophers don't have any control over the opponents) you are left with a schedule that looks pretty comparable this year against last year to the average fan from a competitive standpoint. I do recognize that Syracuse/Arkansas/Florida State probably helped more than St. John's/Georgia/Wake Forest but how would you know that in advance?

So the RPI is that sensitive to the "quality" of the small conference teams that we play and is predictable enough a year or two in advance to guard against to make that big of a difference?

This Year: Louisville, UNC-Wilmington, Western Carolina, Furman, North Dakota, Seattle, UMBC, Southern U

Last Year: Lehign, Montana, Richmond, Wofford, New Orleans, South Dakota State, Omaha, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
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Interesting point.

Moving forward that's what scares me as a season-ticket holder. Look at who we've played in Richard's two years, home, away, or neutral, the ones he can control. (Coastal Carolina came with the Maui, Western Kentucky & Franklin Pierce were part of the NIT). I see Richmond (the back end of a Tubby home-and-home) and Louisville, and that's it. In two seasons Louisville and Wofford (a NCAA qualifier) are the best two teams Pitino scheduled.

Up to a certain point I'll buy the NIT implosion as a reason the schedule sucks this year, but that doesn't excuse away everything. We got caught with our pants down when the NIT imploded. Needed to put another quality game in there somewhere between now and the Big Ten season. That's too long without being tested.

Certainly I would expect the Dave Gavitt Series with the Big East to help our schedule in future years, but what about the years we don't take part?
 

SelectionSunday said:
Interesting point.

Moving forward that's what scares me as a season-ticket holder. Look at who we've played in Richard's two years, home, away, or neutral, the ones he can control. (Coastal Carolina came with the Maui, Western Kentucky was part of the NIT). I see Richmond (the back end of a Tubby home-and-home) and Louisville, and that's it. In two seasons Louisville and Wofford (a NCAA qualifier) are the best two teams Pitino scheduled.

Up to a certain point I'll buy the NIT implosion as a reason the schedule sucks this year, but that doesn't excuse away everything. We got caught with our pants down when the NIT imploded. Needed to put another quality game in there somewhere between now and the Big Ten season. That's too long without being tested.

Certainly I would expect the Dave Gavitt Series with the Big East to help our schedule in future years, but what about the years we don't take part?
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Serious question/concern.

are you ok?

You are being really negative lately.
 

Winasota Gopher said:
Serious question/concern.

are you ok?

You are being really negative lately.
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I appreciate the concern. Negative compared to what? Generally I try not to be too critical, I appreciate you noticing that, but I'm getting the sense even the slightest hint of criticism of Pitino on this board is met with much angst?

Am pretty consistent with my questioning of our non-conference home scheduling philosophies. That predates Pitino! I hear ya', though, I think what's happening with the football folks has me a little fired up. I can hear the thunder rolling in on the basketball side of things.
 


golfing18now said:
One question that I have about the schedule this year......I'm struggling a little with the assertion that this year's schedule is historically bad as compared to other years. If you remove the ACC/B1G game, and the preseason tournament from the conversation (because the Gophers don't have any control over the opponents) you are left with a schedule that looks pretty comparable this year against last year to the average fan from a competitive standpoint. I do recognize that Syracuse/Arkansas/Florida State probably helped more than St. John's/Georgia/Wake Forest but how would you know that in advance?

So the RPI is that sensitive to the "quality" of the small conference teams that we play and is predictable enough a year or two in advance to guard against to make that big of a difference?

This Year: Louisville, UNC Wilmington, Western Carolina, Western Kentucky, Furman, North Dakota, Seattle, UMBC, Southern

Last Year: Lehign, Montana, Richmond, Coastal Carolina, Wofford, New Orleans, South Dakota State, Nebraska-Omaha, Texas A&M Corpus Christi
Click to expand...

The RPI isn't sensitive to quality of teams - it's sensitive to the win-loss records of opponents.

With work, quite good projections can be made of teams that should be avoided (e.g., teams that may go 5-XX in the next year or two) and teams that should be solid (.500 or better in conference - even a 'small conference'). The truth is many coaches and staffs are confused by RPI just like the public (and ESPN, etc.) are.

It's one of those areas of advantage that can be attained if they find the right people to help them. With so much money involved in college athletics, it defies logic to not spend a fair amount of time and money on scheduling.

Now, what I think SS's issue is differs a bit.. since it's possible to give a home crowd a good game or two and still have a poor schedule from an RPI perspective... so there are two issues here. BTW, I appreciate that about SS - he's never been shy about criticizing schedules.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
The RPI isn't sensitive to quality of teams - it's sensitive to the win-loss records of opponents.

With work, quite good projections can be made of teams that should be avoided (e.g., teams that may go 5-XX in the next year or two) and teams that should be solid (.500 or better in conference - even a 'small conference'). The truth is many coaches and staffs are confused by RPI just like the public (and ESPN, etc.) are.

It's one of those areas of advantage that can be attained if they find the right people to help them. With so much money involved in college athletics, it defies logic to not spend a fair amount of time and money on scheduling.

Now, what I think SS's issue is differs a bit.. since it's possible to give a home crowd a good game or two and still have a poor schedule from an RPI perspective... so there are two issues here. BTW, I appreciate that about SS - he's never been shy about criticizing schedules.
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Thanks GW for the clarification.

I totally agree with you that this does bring up two different issues. I can understand the frustration of SS and others regarding the quality of the December slate of games from a viewing perspective. However, I was asking primarily from an RPI calculation standpoint. Based on your description, it does seem like any team could selectively schedule games against "inferior" opponents that wouldn't drag down the RPI as much (Joe Esposito). Still seems like quite a bit of projection to me but I understand your overall point.

Thanks again.
 

Minnesota suddenly up to #29 in the Sagarin ratings. I get the feeling that the loss to St. Johns, although somewhat costly, will not kill us. It'll still come down to our conference performance, as it usually does.
 

Bad Gopher said:
Minnesota suddenly up to #29 in the Sagarin ratings. I get the feeling that the loss to St. Johns, although somewhat costly, will not kill us. It'll still come down to our conference performance, as it usually does.
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Thus the reason I hope we can blow these cupcakes out of the water in the first half and get Bakary and Josh HUGE volumes of minutes.

edit: Buggs too, and probably much more importantly due to his alleged/hopeful ability to play the 3.
 

Nothing to do with the Gopher schedule, but you see the next five games Monson has in store for his club? Dang!! What a meat grinder.
 

fan of Ray Williams said:
Nothing to do with the Gopher schedule, but you see the next five games Monson has in store for his club? Dang!! What a meat grinder.
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It's time for us to get LBSU on the schedule. Monson will go anywhere and play anyone. Looks like he's doing a good job recruiting the second tier players in California and fielding competitive teams every year. I would consider The Beach to be a schedule upgrade.
 

Bad Gopher said:
Minnesota suddenly up to #29 in the Sagarin ratings. I get the feeling that the loss to St. Johns, although somewhat costly, will not kill us. It'll still come down to our conference performance, as it usually does.
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Pomeroy has us at #29 this morning. I agree that our conference performance will decide our fate.
 

We beat Georgia who just beat Colorado. Very early in the season.
 

minny01 said:
Pomeroy has us at #29 this morning. I agree that our conference performance will decide our fate.
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St. Johns rated higher on Sagarin than the Gophs as I write. Maybe not such a bad loss.
 

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