Scottsdale Gopher
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jun 9, 2021
- Messages
- 230
- Reaction score
- 543
- Points
- 93
This post by @bleedsmaroonandgold made me wonder how Minnesota has fared ATS during PJ Fleck’s tenure. While gambling markets are by no means a perfect measure of performance, they are one to evaluate the program against expectations. I was interested in how the Gophers have performed against the spread during PJ’s tenure - particularly as heavy favorites or underdogs - and what outliers I might find. It was also the bye week and it was better than watching paint dry hate-watching Iowa.
This was compiled using data from collegefootballdata.com. The lines were “consensus” through 2022 and from Bovada from 2023 forward. I skipped 2020 more out of deference for the general chaos of the season than Gopher performance.
Here’s a summary of each season (save 2020) under Fleck.
2017
Record: 5-7
Record ATS: 4-7-1
Season Net ATS: -16.5 (performed 16.5 points worse than betting expectations)
There were several notable ATS games in 2017 as the Gophers routed Oregon State in Corvallis, despite being slight underdogs. PJ’s dominance over Nebraska was established in a 33 point drubbing the Gophers were favored to win by 1.5. On the other side of the coin, the Gophers lost by a TD to Maryland as 13.5 point favorites, were routed by Northwestern as 7 point underdogs, and lost the Battle for the Axe by 12.5 points more than the spread.
2018
Record: 7-6
Record ATS: 8-5
Season Net ATS: +59.5 (performed 59.5 points better than betting expectations)
Schizophrenia or the calling card of Robb Smith? The Gophers played just three games within less than ten points of the spread in 2018 (Fresno State, Miami (OH), and Indiana). Purdue, Wisconsin, and Georgia Tech were all dominant performances while the Gophers played Ohio State much closer than the line suggested. However, Maryland, Nebraska, and Illinois were all embarrassing losses, the last of which culminated in a change at defensive coordinator.
2019
Record: 11-2
Record ATS: 7-4-2
Season Net ATS: +55.5 (performed 55.5 points better than betting expectations)
Everyone reading this is well-versed in the early season escapes of 2019 which included two of the Gophers worst performances ATS that season. The worst was the capitulation to Wisconsin to wrap the regular season. Vegas had a great deal of respect for the Gophers in 2019, reflected by both the number of times they were heavy favorites and that no opposing team was favored by more than seven (Auburn) all season. The best performances ATS: Maryland, Nebraska, Auburn.
2021
Record: 9-4
Record ATS: 8-4-1
Season Net ATS: +51.5 (performed 51.5 points better than betting expectations)
I’m guessing that some readers have immediately scrolled to this season. The Gophers improbably went 1-2 in games they were favored by 10 or more points, all of which accounted for their three worst performances ATS this season. Bowling Green was the worst, as the Gophers lost a game in which they were favored by 30.5, though the loss to Illinois was not much better. However, the Gophers ran up their margin ATS many times with big victories over Colorado, Northwestern, and Wisconsin leading the way.
2022
Record: 9-4
Record ATS: 7-6
Season Net ATS: +15.5 (performed 15.5 points better than betting expectations)
The Gophers were favored in their non-conference schedule by a total of 105 points, which they managed to cover in the aggregate and in all three games. Vegas loved Minnesota in 2022 as the Gophers were favorites in all but two contests: at Penn State and at Wisconsin. A mid-season swoon saw the team lose three straight games (Purdue, Illinois, Penn State) and all three games were the Gophers worst performances ATS all season. A thrashing of MSU in East Lansing represented the best performance ATS.
2023
Record: 6-7
Record ATS: 4-9
Season Net ATS: -76.5 (performed 76.5 points worse than betting expectations)
Somehow this was less enjoyable in spreadsheet form than it was in real life. A failed transition at QB led to some woeful performances, including a late collapse in Evanston to lose to Northwestern despite being 10.5 point favorites. That was only the third-worst loss ATS for the season (Michigan and Purdue). The Gophers best performance ATS was a win against Michigan State that saw them cover by 8.5. 2023 is Minnesota’s worst net season ATS during Fleck’s tenure.
2024
Record: 8-5
Record ATS: 10-2-1
Season Net ATS: +80.5 (performed 80.5 points better than betting expectations)
One of the top “What If?” seasons of the last 20 years. The Gophers missed a winning FG against UNC (push ATS), lost a recovered onside kick to a phantom offside call against Michigan (covered by 7.5), and lost a heartbreaker to Penn State at home (covered by 10). The Gophers were 10+ point underdogs in both of the latter games. There were only two poor performances ATS all season: Iowa and at Rutgers. 2024 is Minnesota's best net season ATS during Fleck’s tenure.
2025 (incomplete)
Record: 6-3
Record ATS: 2-6-1
Season Net ATS: -22.5 (performed 22.5 points worse than betting expectations)
Three regular season games and a bowl game remain. Ohio State and Iowa were obviously awful, while the Gophers managed to cover a massive spread against Northwestern State and beat Nebraska by 17 as 7 point underdogs.
Summary:
Record: 61-38
Record ATS: 50-43-6
Aggregate Net ATS: +147 (performed 147 points better than betting expectations)
Five Worst Performances ATS
Five Best Performances ATS
I think looking at the team through this prism lends some credence to those that believe the program may be post-peak under PJ. As someone who doesn’t believe that, I think last season’s performance is very encouraging. Obviously you always want more actual wins, but the team was well-positioned against UNC, Michigan, and Penn State and were unable to close. I think 2025 looks a lot like 2023 to this point, with meaningfully better QB play, which has translated to more wins and more optimism. What does everyone else think?
This was compiled using data from collegefootballdata.com. The lines were “consensus” through 2022 and from Bovada from 2023 forward. I skipped 2020 more out of deference for the general chaos of the season than Gopher performance.
Here’s a summary of each season (save 2020) under Fleck.
2017
Record: 5-7
Record ATS: 4-7-1
Season Net ATS: -16.5 (performed 16.5 points worse than betting expectations)
| Record as 10+ Favorite | Record as 10+ Underdog | +10 or more ATS | -10 or more ATS |
3-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 |
There were several notable ATS games in 2017 as the Gophers routed Oregon State in Corvallis, despite being slight underdogs. PJ’s dominance over Nebraska was established in a 33 point drubbing the Gophers were favored to win by 1.5. On the other side of the coin, the Gophers lost by a TD to Maryland as 13.5 point favorites, were routed by Northwestern as 7 point underdogs, and lost the Battle for the Axe by 12.5 points more than the spread.
2018
Record: 7-6
Record ATS: 8-5
Season Net ATS: +59.5 (performed 59.5 points better than betting expectations)
| Record as 10+ Favorite | Record as 10+ Underdog | +10 or more ATS | -10 or more ATS |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 |
Schizophrenia or the calling card of Robb Smith? The Gophers played just three games within less than ten points of the spread in 2018 (Fresno State, Miami (OH), and Indiana). Purdue, Wisconsin, and Georgia Tech were all dominant performances while the Gophers played Ohio State much closer than the line suggested. However, Maryland, Nebraska, and Illinois were all embarrassing losses, the last of which culminated in a change at defensive coordinator.
2019
Record: 11-2
Record ATS: 7-4-2
Season Net ATS: +55.5 (performed 55.5 points better than betting expectations)
| Record as 10+ Favorite | Record as 10+ Underdog | +10 or more ATS | -10 or more ATS |
6-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 |
Everyone reading this is well-versed in the early season escapes of 2019 which included two of the Gophers worst performances ATS that season. The worst was the capitulation to Wisconsin to wrap the regular season. Vegas had a great deal of respect for the Gophers in 2019, reflected by both the number of times they were heavy favorites and that no opposing team was favored by more than seven (Auburn) all season. The best performances ATS: Maryland, Nebraska, Auburn.
2021
Record: 9-4
Record ATS: 8-4-1
Season Net ATS: +51.5 (performed 51.5 points better than betting expectations)
| Record as 10+ Favorite | Record as 10+ Underdog | +10 or more ATS | -10 or more ATS |
1-2 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 |
I’m guessing that some readers have immediately scrolled to this season. The Gophers improbably went 1-2 in games they were favored by 10 or more points, all of which accounted for their three worst performances ATS this season. Bowling Green was the worst, as the Gophers lost a game in which they were favored by 30.5, though the loss to Illinois was not much better. However, the Gophers ran up their margin ATS many times with big victories over Colorado, Northwestern, and Wisconsin leading the way.
2022
Record: 9-4
Record ATS: 7-6
Season Net ATS: +15.5 (performed 15.5 points better than betting expectations)
| Record as 10+ Favorite | Record as 10+ Underdog | +10 or more ATS | -10 or more ATS |
7-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 |
The Gophers were favored in their non-conference schedule by a total of 105 points, which they managed to cover in the aggregate and in all three games. Vegas loved Minnesota in 2022 as the Gophers were favorites in all but two contests: at Penn State and at Wisconsin. A mid-season swoon saw the team lose three straight games (Purdue, Illinois, Penn State) and all three games were the Gophers worst performances ATS all season. A thrashing of MSU in East Lansing represented the best performance ATS.
2023
Record: 6-7
Record ATS: 4-9
Season Net ATS: -76.5 (performed 76.5 points worse than betting expectations)
| Record as 10+ Favorite | Record as 10+ Underdog | +10 or more ATS | -10 or more ATS |
2-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 4 |
Somehow this was less enjoyable in spreadsheet form than it was in real life. A failed transition at QB led to some woeful performances, including a late collapse in Evanston to lose to Northwestern despite being 10.5 point favorites. That was only the third-worst loss ATS for the season (Michigan and Purdue). The Gophers best performance ATS was a win against Michigan State that saw them cover by 8.5. 2023 is Minnesota’s worst net season ATS during Fleck’s tenure.
2024
Record: 8-5
Record ATS: 10-2-1
Season Net ATS: +80.5 (performed 80.5 points better than betting expectations)
| Record as 10+ Favorite | Record as 10+ Underdog | +10 or more ATS | -10 or more ATS |
3-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 |
One of the top “What If?” seasons of the last 20 years. The Gophers missed a winning FG against UNC (push ATS), lost a recovered onside kick to a phantom offside call against Michigan (covered by 7.5), and lost a heartbreaker to Penn State at home (covered by 10). The Gophers were 10+ point underdogs in both of the latter games. There were only two poor performances ATS all season: Iowa and at Rutgers. 2024 is Minnesota's best net season ATS during Fleck’s tenure.
2025 (incomplete)
Record: 6-3
Record ATS: 2-6-1
Season Net ATS: -22.5 (performed 22.5 points worse than betting expectations)
| Record as 10+ Favorite | Record as 10+ Underdog | +10 or more ATS | -10 or more ATS |
2-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 |
Three regular season games and a bowl game remain. Ohio State and Iowa were obviously awful, while the Gophers managed to cover a massive spread against Northwestern State and beat Nebraska by 17 as 7 point underdogs.
Summary:
Record: 61-38
Record ATS: 50-43-6
Aggregate Net ATS: +147 (performed 147 points better than betting expectations)
| Record as 10+ Favorite | Record as 10+ Underdog | +10 or more ATS | -10 or more ATS |
26-4 | 2-9 | 32 | 27 |
Five Worst Performances ATS
| Line | Opponent | Score |
| Gophers -30.5 | Bowling Green - 9.25.21 | 10 - 14 |
| Gophers -8.5 | @Illinois - 11.3.18 | 31 - 55 |
| Gophers +7 | @ Iowa - 10.25.25 | 3 - 41 |
| Gophers +1.5 | @Maryland - 9.22.18 | 13 - 42 |
| Gophers +18.5 | Michigan - 10.7.23 | 10 - 52 |
Five Best Performances ATS
| Line | Opponent | Score |
| Gophers +10 | Purdue - 11.10.18 | 41 - 10 |
| Gophers +2.5 | @Oregon State - 9.9.17 | 48 - 14 |
| Gophers +12.5 | @Wisconsin - 11.24.18 | 37 - 15 |
| Gophers +2.5 | @Colorado - 9.18.21 | 30 - 0 |
| Gophers -1.5 | Nebraska - 11.11.17 | 54 - 21 |
I think looking at the team through this prism lends some credence to those that believe the program may be post-peak under PJ. As someone who doesn’t believe that, I think last season’s performance is very encouraging. Obviously you always want more actual wins, but the team was well-positioned against UNC, Michigan, and Penn State and were unable to close. I think 2025 looks a lot like 2023 to this point, with meaningfully better QB play, which has translated to more wins and more optimism. What does everyone else think?
