Gophers 3.5 point favorites vs Illinois

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Isn’t their best player suspended for half the game too? They’re also beat up a bit so maybe they assume they got healthier while we stay dinged up?
 

Unfortunately Beilema has had our number whether he was at Wisconsin or Illinois. This is another monkey on back team/coach for Fleck. A toss up seems appropriate.
 






What is Illinois run defense like?

We are living and dying by the run more than ever it seems.
 



Texan Gopher said:
Because we're the home team, they are essentially saying this game is a toss-up.
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I think the "Bielema has the Gophers' Number" must be part of this. He is 9-0 against the Gophers, 2-0 against PJ. Apart from this psychological factor, 3.5 seems like a tighter spread than warranted. Time for PJ to throw another monkey off his back.

The Gophers and Illini have roughly equal offenses in terms of overall production. But our defense is quite a bit better than Illinois's in terms of overall production and in many individual measures. Illini run defense is middle of the pack; Illini pass defense has been pretty bad, worst in the B1G by several measures. If it weren't for the Bielema hex on the Gophers, I would have expected more like a touchdown spread. But history counts, too.

We should beat Illinois. If we have both our running game and passing game going on Saturday (as we did against Michigan State), and play a normal Rossi defense, Illinois can win only by playing well above its normal 2023 level. But, if we face-plant again with, say early turnovers, this becomes a very tough game. Illinois would probably have led 10-0 or 14-0 after our two early fumbles this past Saturday. And, against Bert, that would have been game over right there--at least historically.
 
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SP+ would say Gophs by 3.5 on a neutral field vs Illini.

Would give us 8.5 vs Purdue on a neutral field.

No excuse not to get to 7-3.

Should be 9-1.

UNC exposed by UVA and GaTech last two weeks. Now out of AP top 25.
 

watertown 1987 guy n said:
Unfortunately Beilema has had our number whether he was at Wisconsin or Illinois. This is another monkey on back team/coach for Fleck. A toss up seems appropriate.
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Didn't Ferentz "have our number" for a long time as well?

I'll say it again: all streaks come to an end eventually.
 



Illinois Stats -

Team avg on offense: 139.5 rush - 226 pass = 365.5 tot offense

Team avg on defense: 161 rush - 235 pass = 396 tot defense

Scoring: Illinois 20.4 pts/gm - opponents 27.8 pts/gm

Time of possession: Illinois 27:52 - Opps 32:08

3rd-down conversion: Ill 34.0% - opps 46.3%

QB sacks allowed: ill 31 for 145 yds / Opps 12 for 97 yds

Individual leaders -
Rushing: Kaden Feagin 67-329yds, 4.9 per carry, 2 TD

Passing: Luke Altmyer 151 of 239 = 1,671yds, 10TD, 9 INT
(as a runner, Altmyer has 301 net yds but 453 not counting sacks- avg 8 yds on non-sack runs)

Rec: Isaiah Williams 46-562yds, 12.2/per rec, 1 TD
----Pat Bryant 24-319yds, 13.3 avg, 5 TD

to sum up - only running for 140 yds a game and OL has allowed 31 sacks. Winston needs to be feeding the D-Line raw meat this week and have them ready to wreak havoc.
 





The fact that Fleck's Minnesota was favored against Bielema's Illinois the last two games and lost both is maybe a factor in this line. I'd have to think Bielema's winning streak against Tim Brewster and Jerry Kill while coaching at Wisconsin has little to no effect on the line.
 




Bovada has Minnesota at -1.0 today. Bielema with a bye week to prepare will be a tough out. I'm tempted to take that -1.0 and MN, but games against Illinois have been like running in sticky mud the past couple years. Painful.
 

This is strange to me given the other lines we've had this year. Illinois is terrible. I'd take -3.5 any day.
 


I think the fact that Illinois just beat Maryland and has the bye (2 weeks) to prepare for the Gophers influences the line. The fact that our top three running backs are/could be out and RB 4 appears to be in coach’s doghouse for fumbling, also must affect the line.
 

Panthadad2 said:
Not that terrible. They knocked off Maryland on the road when the Terps' only loss was Ohio State.
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Maryland is not very good either. They had a very weak schedule to start. Now they just lost to NW. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't win another game this season.

Illinois was also blown out at Purdue, and lost to Nebraska at home by 13. They're not a very good team.
 



swingman said:
SP+ would say Gophs by 3.5 on a neutral field vs Illini.

Would give us 8.5 vs Purdue on a neutral field.

No excuse not to get to 7-3.

Should be 9-1.

UNC exposed by UVA and GaTech last two weeks. Now out of AP top 25.
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On that day, we had zero chance of beating North Carolina so hard for me to get two should be nine and one.
 

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