Things have changed since we now basically have a P-2. I'd expect our rankings to increase because all the other conferences have trouble competing with all our money.
Below are the B1G & SEC standings from last year as a starting point. We will likely never jump over Oregon, Penn State, OSU, Michigan, USC and probably, Nebraska, because of all the NIL money I think they'll always bring to the table. They routinely recruit 90ish+ in 247. That's 6 right away. The remaining 12 are 88 or lower and we can compete with all those programs.
As for the SEC, most of that conference will recruit well because of superior recruiting footprint and good financial resources. We have a chance to out compete only Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky & Mississippi State routinely and that's being generous. All of them have higher rankings than us right now. Throw in South Carolina, Ole Miss (only if Lane Kiffin leaves) & Missouri if they are having down periods. I'd say even when the Gophers are doing really well, we could jump maybe 4 SEC schools so the other 12 beat us.
That means even in a very good scenario and just including the B1G & SEC, we will likely never be ranked in recruiting above 19. Throw in a few teams from the ACC like Clemson, Miami, and Florida State that we'll likely never out recruit and now we're at no better than 22. I was going to include North Carolina because of recruiting footprint, but it doesn't look like the Bill Belichick experiment is going very well there. If they ever get it right there, we're down to 23.
That leaves the remaining 13 teams in the ACC and the whole Big 12 of 16 teams as peer level competition mostly at our level. So we have to outcompete 12 + 4 + 13 + 16 = 45 teams for the 2 or 3 spots that are likely available to be top 25. We have major advantages over a lot of those programs because of B1G money and our coaching stability, but not all of them. I thought my news would be better, but being top 30 even when our program is going good will still be challenging.
As
MNVCGUY mentioned, the transfer portal is very important. It helps us even out the recruiting disparities with the top teams when teams like us steal their higher rated recruits after they are tired of sitting on the bench.
