Gophers 2024 Season Preview Using Sagarin 2023 Year-End Data

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dpodoll68

dpodoll68

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Obviously a lot will change between now and August 29, but as of now, using Sagarin's 2023 year-end data (https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm), here is how the Gophers 2024 season is shaping up:

Game Date Opponent Line
1 August 29 North Carolina +6
2 September 7 Rhode Island -21.5
3 September 14 Nevada -19
4 September 21 Iowa +5
5 September 28 @Michigan +32.5
6 October 5 USC +11.5
7 October 12 @UCLA +13.5
8 October 26 Maryland +8.5
9 November 2 @Illinois +3.5
10 November 9 @Rutgers +8
11 November 23 Penn St. +21.5
12 November 30 @wisconsin +10

Predicted Record: 2-10 (0-9)

Likely Blowout Wins (21-pt spread+) : 1 (Rhode Island)
Likely Comfortable Wins (10-21 pt spread) : 1 (Nevada)
Toss-Ups (single-digit underdogs) : 5 (@Illinois, Iowa, North Carolina, @Rutgers, Maryland)
Likely Comfortable Losses (10-21 pt spread) : 3 (@wisconsin, USC, @UCLA)
Likely Blowout Losses (21-pt spread+) : 2 (Penn St., @Michigan)

Notes:
  • The Gophers are underdogs in every conference game.
  • The Gophers have zero toss-up games (generously defined as single-digit spread) in which they are favorites.
  • Assuming the blowout/likely wins and losses go the way they are predicted, the Gophers will have to go 4-1 in toss-up games just to guarantee a bowl appearance.
As I stated in a previous thread, and was destroyed for, barring some massive changes between now and August 29, the Gophers will be very lucky to make a bowl game.
 


I'll admit I'm not well versed on most opponent's rosters but is Maryland really that good?
 

dpodoll68 said:
Obviously a lot will change between now and August 29, but as of now, using Sagarin's 2023 year-end data (https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm), here is how the Gophers 2024 season is shaping up:

Game Date Opponent Line
1 August 29 North Carolina +6
2 September 7 Rhode Island -21.5
3 September 14 Nevada -19
4 September 21 Iowa +5
5 September 28 @Michigan +32.5
6 October 5 USC +11.5
7 October 12 @UCLA +13.5
8 October 26 Maryland +8.5
9 November 2 @Illinois +3.5
10 November 9 @Rutgers +8
11 November 23 Penn St. +21.5
12 November 30 @wisconsin +10

Predicted Record: 2-10 (0-9)

Likely Blowout Wins (21-pt spread+) : 1 (Rhode Island)
Likely Comfortable Wins (10-21 pt spread) : 1 (Nevada)
Toss-Ups (single-digit underdogs) : 5 (@Illinois, Iowa, North Carolina, @Rutgers, Maryland)
Likely Comfortable Losses (10-21 pt spread) : 3 (@wisconsin, USC, @UCLA)
Likely Blowout Losses (21-pt spread+) : 2 (Penn St., @Michigan)

Notes:
  • The Gophers are underdogs in every conference game.
  • The Gophers have zero toss-up games (generously defined as single-digit spread) in which they are favorites.
  • Assuming the blowout/likely wins and losses go the way they are predicted, the Gophers will have to go 4-1 in toss-up games just to guarantee a bowl appearance.
As I stated in a previous thread, and was destroyed for, barring some massive changes between now and August 29, the Gophers will be very lucky to make a bowl game.
Click to expand...
dpo I'm a big fan of your posts but you were not "destroyed" in that thread at all. One person responded saying we will win 6 games minimum (I don't agree with that statement), and one questioned you saying that we will be 4-8 at best. If that's your definition of destroyed, you are way too sensitive.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I'll admit I'm not well versed on most opponent's rosters but is Maryland really that good?
Click to expand...
I don’t think this method considers anything beyond record, strength of schedule, opponents SOS, things like that.

Also assume that all the numbers shown are “Aug 29” numbers. There is no point trying to project how the numbers will shift over the course of the season, right now. And they will shift a great deal, as they do every year.
 


dpodoll68 said:
...the Gophers will be very lucky to make a bowl game.
Click to expand...

If the 2024 Gopher football team performs above and beyond Sagarin's expectations, I doubt if luck will have anything to do with it.

If the Gophers go bowling, it would simply mean that Sagarin was wrong... and Sagarin being wrong is certainly possible.
 

Gophers1992 said:
dpo I'm a big fan of your posts but you were not "destroyed" in that thread at all. One person responded saying we will win 6 games minimum (I don't agree with that statement), and one questioned you saying that we will be 4-8 at best. If that's your definition of destroyed, you are way too sensitive.
Click to expand...
Yeah, no one destroyed him. I just questioned if he really thought next year we would be 4-8 at best. I wouldn't have responded at all if he had said "I think our most likely record is 4-8".

Even if you look at these numbers, a 4-8 record is pretty unlikely. For example, if you have 4 games and have a 25% likelihood of winning each game, your likely record is 1-3 not 0-4 despite not being favored in any game.

If you looked at these odds another way and just used a rule of thumb where a point swings your chances by about 3% (reasonable people can disagree on this but it's usually close to this, usually slightly less than this actually):

Just look at the toss ups
Chance of Winning:
North Carolina - 32% chance of winning
Iowa - 35% chance of winning
Maryland - 24.5% chance of winning
Illinois - 39.5% chance of winning
Rutgers - 26% chance of winning

Statistically - we should win 1.57 of these games. You can't win .57 games, so you'd round that to two. We don't have any close wins to round those wins down (same logic holds true in those games).

The O/U for the Gophers would absolutely not be at 2 games next season. It would likely be at 4. Saying that the Gophers will win, at best, 4 games next season isn't really supported by these numbers even though we are the underdog in 10 of 12.
 

Gophers1992 said:
I'll admit I'm not well versed on most opponent's rosters but is Maryland really that good?
Click to expand...
Maryland has out recruited us 6 of the last 7 years (2017 - 2023), according to 247Sports.com. So far for 2024, we are slightly better.
 





We (you and I) have gone bowling for the last time. Or until the Gophers get out of the B1G. The expansion did the Gophers no favors. Yes, it increased the “dollar pie” but that doesn’t help buy bigger and better players. Sorry, but that’s the way I see it. Will I still buy tickets, absolutely.
 

Is Sagarin using data from this years bowl season?

I know ESPN's stats were and they massively boosted Georgia's rankings because they obliterated ... an undefeated FSU squad where nobody played / cared. That was pretty absurd.

Outside the playoffs I feel like the bowl season games provide a really high % chance of some wonky data being introduced.
 
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Yikes! All the gloom and doom. How but we play it out and see what happens to our favor collegiate football team. Gotta sneaking suspicion we may be a bit better than what a computer thinks and some of you negative folk.
 



Jack jones said:
We (you and I) have gone bowling for the last time. Or until the Gophers get out of the B1G. The expansion did the Gophers no favors. Yes, it increased the “dollar pie” but that doesn’t help buy bigger and better players. Sorry, but that’s the way I see it. Will I still buy tickets, absolutely.
Click to expand...
You think we're never going .500 again? Seriously?
 

Jack jones said:
We (you and I) have gone bowling for the last time. Or until the Gophers get out of the B1G. The expansion did the Gophers no favors. Yes, it increased the “dollar pie” but that doesn’t help buy bigger and better players. Sorry, but that’s the way I see it. Will I still buy tickets, absolutely.
Click to expand...
Is this some sort of joke / theme account?

1706647194331.png
 


I feel like the transfer portal has caused people to forget the concept of a rebuilding year. We don't have the resources to always just reload season after season, and we'll have some down seasons as a result with younger and less talented rosters. That's okay. And even then we probably would have been over .500 if we weren't bogged down by significant injuries to our most talented players (who are all coming back, pretty much). The sky is not falling because we had one bad and unlucky year where we were rebuilding. We will probably have a better record next year based on the talent we have coming back and what we've got from the portal and we will most certainly not go 2-10. Calm down, y'all.
 
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Using year end data to try and predict the next season is pretty worthless, especially in this current transfer portal era where the roster churn is so extreme from year to year.

UNC won't have Maye, Maryland won't have Tua......lots of changes for the Gophers and everyone else on the schedule, some will improve others will get worse. Pointless to try and project anything before rosters are set after spring ball and even then you don't really know what a team is going to look like until the take the field in the fall.
 

Sagarin has us going 0-9 in the B1G. If our new QB is as ineffective at key junctures in games as last year, maybe so. I'm not a betting man, but I'd be all over a bet with someone who wanted to take Sagarin's side that the Gophers get no B1G wins next year.
 


  1. Minnesota will not go 2-10 (0-9)
  2. Minnesota will not be an underdog in every B1G game at kickoff
  3. Nobody knows how Minnesota will do next year
  4. Very possible they don’t make a bowl game
  5. Very possible they’re much better than they were in ‘23
 


MGGopher said:
  1. Minnesota will not go 2-10 (0-9)
  2. Minnesota will not be an underdog in every B1G game at kickoff
  3. Nobody knows how Minnesota will do next year
  4. Very possible they don’t make a bowl game
  5. Very possible they’re much better than they were in ‘23
Click to expand...
There are always possibilities.

- Spock
 

dpodoll68 said:
Obviously a lot will change between now and August 29, but as of now, using Sagarin's 2023 year-end data (https://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm), here is how the Gophers 2024 season is shaping up:

Game Date Opponent Line
1 August 29 North Carolina +6
2 September 7 Rhode Island -21.5
3 September 14 Nevada -19
4 September 21 Iowa +5
5 September 28 @Michigan +32.5
6 October 5 USC +11.5
7 October 12 @UCLA +13.5
8 October 26 Maryland +8.5
9 November 2 @Illinois +3.5
10 November 9 @Rutgers +8
11 November 23 Penn St. +21.5
12 November 30 @wisconsin +10

Predicted Record: 2-10 (0-9)

Likely Blowout Wins (21-pt spread+) : 1 (Rhode Island)
Likely Comfortable Wins (10-21 pt spread) : 1 (Nevada)
Toss-Ups (single-digit underdogs) : 5 (@Illinois, Iowa, North Carolina, @Rutgers, Maryland)
Likely Comfortable Losses (10-21 pt spread) : 3 (@wisconsin, USC, @UCLA)
Likely Blowout Losses (21-pt spread+) : 2 (Penn St., @Michigan)

Notes:
  • The Gophers are underdogs in every conference game.
  • The Gophers have zero toss-up games (generously defined as single-digit spread) in which they are favorites.
  • Assuming the blowout/likely wins and losses go the way they are predicted, the Gophers will have to go 4-1 in toss-up games just to guarantee a bowl appearance.
As I stated in a previous thread, and was destroyed for, barring some massive changes between now and August 29, the Gophers will be very lucky to make a bowl game.
Click to expand...
While I understand you're trying to defend your previous commentary and appreciate your effort, using predictive stats to predict a shit record are about as accurate as my belief that competence at qb will result in us being an 8 win team. Kinda like in polling, where the GOP is still waiting for that red wave that was supposed to come up the past few elections cycles. It's all ambiguous and it doesn't account for intangibles. I'll wait until I've seen a few snaps before I go making any grand predictions, but I do stick by my prediction of this team's floor being bowl bound if Brosmer is a consistently capable signal caller.
 



Maybe the analysis Is based on having a linebacker coach from Rutgers as our DC.
 

Jack jones said:
Maybe the analysis Is based on having a linebacker coach from Rutgers as our DC.
Click to expand...

Maybe, maybe not. He is more than a linebackers coach


Corey Hetherman

Corey Hetherman


"Corey Hetherman was named University of Minnesota Defensive Coordinator / Linebackers Coach in January 2024.

Prior to joining Minnesota, Hetherman spent the two previous seasons as the linebackers coach at Rutgers. Before that he was the defensive coordinator at James Madison from 2019-21 and was named the AFCA FCS Assistant Coach of the Year in 2021. He has also been the defensive coordinator at Maine (2016-18) and at Pace College (2014).

At Rutgers, Hetherman took over an inexperienced unit that had seven combined career starts prior to his arrival before the 2022 season. That year, the defense improved by allowing 46.7 fewer yards per game compared to 2021, 28.1 fewer passing yards and 18.6 fewer rushing yards. Rutgers posted its best mark in total defense (349.8) in 10 years.

In 2023, Hetherman coached a pair of honorable mention All-Big Ten linebackers in Mohamed Toure and Deion Jennings. Jennings led the team in tackles, while Toure finished second.

Jennings, who was also Honorable Mention in 2022, played in all 13 games and led Rutgers with 95 tackles and added 4.5 tackles for loss and four pass breakups. Toure played in all 13 games in 2023 after missing the entire 2022 season with an injury. He was named a semifinalist for the Comeback Player of the Year award and had 93 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and one interception.

Hetherman spent 2019-21 at James Madison as the defensive coordinator. His defense ranked in the top 10 in both total defense and scoring defense in all three years he was there.

In 2021, Hetherman was promoted to Associate Head Coach and was named the AFCA FCS Assistant Coach of the Year after James Madison finished with the No. 2-ranked defense in the nation. The Dukes allowed only 275.2 yards per game and also ranked first in the nation in turnovers forced (31), fifth in third-down defense (27.2 percent), seventh in scoring defense (15.4) and eighth in rushing defense (89.0). Four defensive players were recognized as 2021 All-Americans and six were named All-CAA. James Madison ended the season with a 12-2 record and advanced to the FCS semifinals.

In 2020, Hetherman was selected to the AFCA's 35 Under 35 Leadership Institute and James Madison’s defense ranked third in the FCS in rush defense (72.4) and interceptions (12) in the spring of 2021, while ranking fifth in total defense (243.4), sixth in pass efficiency defense (100.74) and eighth in scoring defense (16.5).

In his first season with the Dukes, James Madison led the FCS in total defense (270.2)....

gophersports.com

Corey Hetherman - Football Coach - University of Minnesota Athletics

Corey Hetherman was named University of Minnesota Defensive Coordinator / Linebackers Coach in January 2024. Prior to joining Minnesota, Hetherman spen...
gophersports.com gophersports.com


 

SHGopher said:
Maybe, maybe not. He is more than a linebackers coach


Corey Hetherman

Corey Hetherman


"Corey Hetherman was named University of Minnesota Defensive Coordinator / Linebackers Coach in January 2024.

Prior to joining Minnesota, Hetherman spent the two previous seasons as the linebackers coach at Rutgers. Before that he was the defensive coordinator at James Madison from 2019-21 and was named the AFCA FCS Assistant Coach of the Year in 2021. He has also been the defensive coordinator at Maine (2016-18) and at Pace College (2014).

At Rutgers, Hetherman took over an inexperienced unit that had seven combined career starts prior to his arrival before the 2022 season. That year, the defense improved by allowing 46.7 fewer yards per game compared to 2021, 28.1 fewer passing yards and 18.6 fewer rushing yards. Rutgers posted its best mark in total defense (349.8) in 10 years.

In 2023, Hetherman coached a pair of honorable mention All-Big Ten linebackers in Mohamed Toure and Deion Jennings. Jennings led the team in tackles, while Toure finished second.

Jennings, who was also Honorable Mention in 2022, played in all 13 games and led Rutgers with 95 tackles and added 4.5 tackles for loss and four pass breakups. Toure played in all 13 games in 2023 after missing the entire 2022 season with an injury. He was named a semifinalist for the Comeback Player of the Year award and had 93 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and one interception.

Hetherman spent 2019-21 at James Madison as the defensive coordinator. His defense ranked in the top 10 in both total defense and scoring defense in all three years he was there.

In 2021, Hetherman was promoted to Associate Head Coach and was named the AFCA FCS Assistant Coach of the Year after James Madison finished with the No. 2-ranked defense in the nation. The Dukes allowed only 275.2 yards per game and also ranked first in the nation in turnovers forced (31), fifth in third-down defense (27.2 percent), seventh in scoring defense (15.4) and eighth in rushing defense (89.0). Four defensive players were recognized as 2021 All-Americans and six were named All-CAA. James Madison ended the season with a 12-2 record and advanced to the FCS semifinals.

In 2020, Hetherman was selected to the AFCA's 35 Under 35 Leadership Institute and James Madison’s defense ranked third in the FCS in rush defense (72.4) and interceptions (12) in the spring of 2021, while ranking fifth in total defense (243.4), sixth in pass efficiency defense (100.74) and eighth in scoring defense (16.5).

In his first season with the Dukes, James Madison led the FCS in total defense (270.2)....

gophersports.com

Corey Hetherman - Football Coach - University of Minnesota Athletics

Corey Hetherman was named University of Minnesota Defensive Coordinator / Linebackers Coach in January 2024. Prior to joining Minnesota, Hetherman spen...
gophersports.com gophersports.com


Click to expand...
Yeah I don't know if this guy works out or not, but I did like the hire based on his range of experience.
 

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