Gopher softball 2023

[mngolf]

It seems Washington has been the better team lately, BUT Stanford has two aces who are more consistently difficult to score against than Washington’s. That’s really tough for a team that doesn’t get to play a three-game series against those pitchers. They can throw one each game against you like Alabama did to us in 2017.

Stanford’s offense isn’t their strong suit, but their speed puts pressure on a defense. If we go there we’d either be ready to scratch runs across and/or take advantage of every mistake their pitchers make, and hit some home runs. I think their freshman ace Canady has allowed only one HR all season, although it came recently in a loss to Washington.

My step daughter plays against Regan Krause's sister. She's better than Regan but we run ruled her this year already. Might see her again in sectionals next week

 

[Nipomo 56]

It seems Washington has been the better team lately, BUT Stanford has two aces who are more consistently difficult to score against than Washington’s. That’s really tough for a team that doesn’t get to play a three-game series against those pitchers. They can throw one each game against you like Alabama did to us in 2017.

Stanford’s offense isn’t their strong suit, but their speed puts pressure on a defense. If we go there we’d either be ready to scratch runs across and/or take advantage of every mistake their pitchers make, and hit some home runs. Their freshman ace Canady has allowed only one HR all season. It came in the third game of their series after she had already beaten Washington 2-1 in Game 1. Their other pitcher, Vawter, lost Game 2 1-0. Washington roughed both of them up in Game 3, but only after they had seen each of them a full game already.

We haven’t had much success against Washington in the past, but either way it’s going to take a top performance to get past them .

 

[mngolf]

Was at the championship game representing. Only person there with Minnesota gear on.

 

[Goph4Lyfe]

Taking on #7 Washington. Get McNeese St for our first round game. Unfortunately behind the ESPN+ paywall.

 

[golden10]

McNeese beat Washington earlier this year... could be an interesting pod. They also beat potential Supers matchup LSU.

 

[mngolf]

I'm happy with it. Can be done.

 

[ClassOf98Gopher]

I'm happy with it. Can be done.

All I want is four games of entertainment. This bracket gives us a reasonable chance at 4 games.

 

[rowdaboat]

Bama at 5 with Fouts hurt, 3 terrible losses in non conference, and finishing 5th in conference. And Oklahoma St 6 losing 11 of last 13 including to a terrible Kansas team

 

[Nipomo 56]

All I want is four games of entertainment. This bracket gives us a reasonable chance at 4 games.

This is a pitchers bracket so hopefully we can give Pease some help in the circle.

 

[rwlarson]

My step daughter plays against Regan Krause's sister. She's better than Regan but we run ruled her this year already. Might see her again in sectionals next week

Regan is a pretty good pitcher. She was Stanford’s #2 last year. With Canady arriving on The Farm, she was relegated to #3 this year, but she has had a pretty good year nonetheless. Her sister must be a highly-sought prospect if she’s better than Regan, and your daughter’s team must be pretty good as well.

 

[rwlarson]

We haven’t had much success against Washington in the past, but either way it’s going to take a top performance to get past them .

Yes, but I think I prefer trying to beat Washington for this group of players. I see Florida was sent to Stanford. Florida has outstanding hitting but spotty pitching. Complete opposite of Stanford. We are more balanced but I just didn’t see us scoring many runs against Stanford’s exceptional pitching, which would have put a lot of pressure on our pitching and defense to be near-perfect.

Minnesota plays a style similar to Washington’s. With Washington, you always get good average and power, great defense, but in the past they have always at least one, sometimes two, All-America-caliber pitchers in the circle. This season for the first time in forever, Gabbie Plain is finally gone. Ruby Meylan from Nebraska is very good, has great stuff, but is not in the same discussion yet as Plain or some of their other recent aces who have taken them to OKC.

I was pretty confident Pease could have neutralized Stanford’s hitters; I’m not so sure she can do that as effectively to Washington, so similar to our games against Indiana, we simply need to go into this regional with the mindset that no matter who we are playing, we are going to need to score to win. Washington relies a lot on Baylee Klingler offensively to deliver the big hit for them, but as always, they have plenty of talent.

As in any four-team, double-elimination format, getting to two wins first is paramount. To do that, you must win Game 1. McNeese is capable of winning games against top competition (they beat Washington and LSU) but they lack the consistency to do it frequently (they have an overall 7-12 record against the Top 100 RPI. They rely primarily on pitching, defense (#1 in double plays per game nationally), and team speed. They have almost no power. Their RPI (38) is on the high side high for a 3-seed, so they can’t be taken lightly in a single game, even if they are unlikely to be able to string enough solid performances together to win the regional.

 

[mngolf]

Regan is a pretty good pitcher. She was Stanford’s #2 last year. With Canady arriving on The Farm, she was relegated to #3 this year, but she has had a pretty good year nonetheless. Her sister must be a highly-sought prospect if she’s better than Regan, and your daughter’s team must be pretty good as well.

Her name is Elena Krause and she's a sophomore. She plays for the Beverly Bandits in travel and Pontiac in HS. Pontiac's problem is that Elena is everything for them and they play bad defense. If she isn't striking you out, they're in trouble. Our HS has a good mix of speed, avg's, and power along with above avg defense. Pitching is our weakness. We should win our region this year though.

 

[ClassOf98Gopher]

Yes, but I think I prefer trying to beat Washington for this group of players…

As in any four-team, double-elimination format, getting to two wins first is paramount. To do that, you must win Game 1. McNeese is capable of winning games against top competition (they beat Washington and LSU) but they lack the consistency to do it frequently (they have an overall 7-12 record against the Top 100 RPI…

I have closely followed the past 8 regionals going back to 2014 and we have ended NCAA Regionals weekend with a win 2 times (2014 and 2019) and the Gophers ended regionals weekend with a loss 6 times. Both times the weekend ended in a win was in Minneapolis. In the 6 years where we did not get out of regionals the Gophers did not provide any challenge at all to the nationally seeded team except in 2015 (versus U of Arizona).

Given that background, Gopher fans’ expectations for these weekends should be very accepting of these realities. A successful regional for the Gophers is when two teams get knocked out prior to our knockout loss to the seeded, home team - meaning we get to play (and I get to watch/follow) 4 or even 5 games. This regional certainly gives us that opportunity to play 4 or even 5 games as I think we have an advantage over McNeese.

Our chances against Washington are near zero.

 

[TNGophfan]

I have closely followed the past 8 regionals going back to 2014 and we have ended NCAA Regionals weekend with a win 2 times (2014 and 2019) and the Gophers ended regionals weekend with a loss 6 times. Both times the weekend ended in a win was in Minneapolis. In the 6 years where we did not get out of regionals the Gophers did not provide any challenge at all to the nationally seeded team except in 2015 (versus U of Arizona).

Given that background, Gopher fans’ expectations for these weekends should be very accepting of these realities. A successful regional for the Gophers is when two teams get knocked out prior to our knockout loss to the seeded, home team - meaning we get to play (and I get to watch/follow) 4 or even 5 games. This regional certainly gives us that opportunity to play 4 or even 5 games as I think we have an advantage over McNeese.

Our chances against Washington are near zero.

Do I think we win the regional, no. But, I think our chances are better than near zero. I would give us 20 - 25% and relies on some clutch hitting and Pease being near her best.

 

[Panthadad2]

I have closely followed the past 8 regionals going back to 2014 and we have ended NCAA Regionals weekend with a win 2 times (2014 and 2019) and the Gophers ended regionals weekend with a loss 6 times. Both times the weekend ended in a win was in Minneapolis. In the 6 years where we did not get out of regionals the Gophers did not provide any challenge at all to the nationally seeded team except in 2015 (versus U of Arizona).

Given that background, Gopher fans’ expectations for these weekends should be very accepting of these realities. A successful regional for the Gophers is when two teams get knocked out prior to our knockout loss to the seeded, home team - meaning we get to play (and I get to watch/follow) 4 or even 5 games. This regional certainly gives us that opportunity to play 4 or even 5 games as I think we have an advantage over McNeese.

Our chances against Washington are near zero.

We all know the Gophs traditionally struggle in Seattle, but this isn't the old Washington with stellar pitching. The Gophs have slightly better pitching stats and Washington slightly better batting stats for the season (with the Gophs trending better). I'd give the Gophs much more than "near zero" chance of making it to a regional. Will I put money on it? Probably not.

 

[rwlarson]

We all know the Gophs traditionally struggle in Seattle, but this isn't the old Washington with stellar pitching. The Gophs have slightly better pitching stats and Washington slightly better batting stats for the season (with the Gophs trending better). I'd give the Gophs much more than "near zero" chance of making it to a regional. Will I put money on it? Probably not.

It’s a tall order to beat Washington twice in Seattle. However, after winning 28 straight, they have lost 3 games in their last two home regionals. They were one of five teams not to survive a home regional last year.

As noted above, Minnesota has only advanced to a winner-take-all regional final game once. We have never won the first two games to force the home team to beat us twice to win the regional. All it takes is for a team to get hot for a weekend, and upsets can happen in most regionals these days. We will see in a few days if it is our turn this year.

 

[mngolf]

It’s a tall order to beat Washington twice in Seattle. However, after winning 28 straight, they have lost 3 games in their last two home regionals. They were one of five teams not to survive a home regional last year.

As noted above, Minnesota has only advanced to a winner-take-all regional final game once. We have never won the first two games to force the home team to beat us twice to win the regional. All it takes is for a team to get hot for a weekend, and upsets can happen in most regionals these days. We will see in a few days if it is our turn this year.

And odds are always better when you have an ace that can take over a game.

 

[ClassOf98Gopher]

Do I think we win the regional, no. But, I think our chances are better than near zero. I would give us 20 - 25% and relies on some clutch hitting and Pease being near her best.

Ok, I have a quibble with TNGophfan’s quibble on my post about the Gophers chances this weekend.

I say our chances are “near zero” and the quibbling post says “20-25%”. Since we both say the chances of victory are less than 50 percent, who is the arbiter of which of us is closer to the truth no matter what the results are this coming weekend?

I mean, if the Gophers lose, am I more right? If the Gophers win and take out Washington in the regionals, TNGophfan will say it is a major upset and I will say it is a major upset but we both allowed for the possibility.

I don’t think the written quibble with my “near zero” remark yields anything that can ever be resolved unless someone would post that the Gophers have a 50 percent or better chance of winning and clearly argue that my pessimism is wrong. Now that more bold claim would ultimately yield a clear answer to the dispute which would come from this weekend’s actual results.

 

[Panthadad2]

Massey says the Gophs have a 31% chance of beating Washington. History would say they have no shot. Time for them to change history.

 

[mngolf]

Massey says the Gophs have a 31% chance of beating Washington. History would say they have no shot. Time for them to change history.

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Based on this it means Gophers are 2-0 to start the regional. I like our chances better than 50% if that happens.

 

[rwlarson]

No doubt the Gophers are overdue for a win over Washington. They are so overdue, in fact, that they are due for two wins against them!

 

[rwlarson]

Massey says the Gophs have a 31% chance of beating Washington. History would say they have no shot. Time for them to change history.

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I do like the fact that Massey at least thinks we have a better chance of beating Washington than of McNeese beating us. Still have to win Game 1, especially in a road regional.

 

[TNGophfan]

Ok, I have a quibble with TNGophfan’s quibble on my post about the Gophers chances this weekend.

I say our chances are “near zero” and the quibbling post says “20-25%”. Since we both say the chances of victory are less than 50 percent, who is the arbiter of which of us is closer to the truth no matter what the results are this coming weekend?

I mean, if the Gophers lose, am I more right? If the Gophers win and take out Washington in the regionals, TNGophfan will say it is a major upset and I will say it is a major upset but we both allowed for the possibility.

I don’t think the written quibble with ⁷my “near zero” remark yields anything that can ever be resolved unless someone would post that the Gophers have a 50 percent or better chance of winning and clearly argue that my pessimism is wrong. Now that more bold claim would ultimately yield a clear answer to the dispute which would come from this weekend’s actual results.

Ok, not going to quibble with a quibble of a quibble, lol. I guess my point was that I think we have a puncher's chance and would not be shocked if they won. I took your post to indicate we have very little chance and you would be shocked. No biggie.
Go Gopher Softball!

 

[TNGophfan]

I do like the fact that Massey at least thinks we have a better chance of beating Washington than of McNeese beating us. Still have to win Game 1, especially in a road regional.

Absolute key to winning regional. Have to win game 1 (and hopefully game 2).

 

[rwlarson]

Absolute key to winning regional. Have to win game 1 (and hopefully game 2).

Assuming there are no key injuries afflicting a regional host, regionals are rarely won by beating a 2-0 regional host team twice in one day.

It’s still probably only a 50-50 proposition for a 2-seed to win a regional even if the 2-seed is sitting at 2-0 and the regional host must win two in one day.

But that’s a lot better odds than what is most likely a less than 10% probability of beating a regional host-caliber team twice in one day.

So, beat McNeese! Then beat Washington! Then keep rolling and hope Louisiana beats LSU in their regional so we can once again host a super-regional.

 

[rugger14]

Assuming there are no key injuries afflicting a regional host, regionals are rarely won by beating a 2-0 regional host team twice in one day.

It’s still probably only a 50-50 proposition for a 2-seed to win a regional even if the 2-seed is sitting at 2-0 and the regional host must win two in one day.

But that’s a lot better odds than what is most likely a less than 10% probability of beating a regional host-caliber team twice in one day.

So, beat McNeese! Then beat Washington! Then keep rolling and hope Louisiana beats LSU in their regional so we can once again host a super-regional.

I am not sure we have any chance of hosting a super. Maybe I am confused.

 

[Ski U Mah Gopher]

I am not sure we have any chance of hosting a super. Maybe I am confused.

Who does host if no seeded teams in a super-regional wins?

 

[rwlarson]

Who does host if no seeded teams in a super-regional wins?

Before the tournament, all teams have the opportunity to submit bids to host regionals and super-regionals. Usually, this is something most teams do routinely even if they know there is little chance they will be seeded 1-16.

It does come into play if two unseeded teams win opposite regionals. In that case, the first criteria is whether one or both teams submitted a bid to host super-regionals.

I believe the second criteria is whether the teams involved were 2-seed, 3-seed, or 4-seed in the region they won. A 2-seed hosts over a winning 3-seed, etc.

If both teams are the same regional seed, as is most often the case when this happens, the team that won the regional at the highest seed hosts.

Since Washington is the 7-seed and LSU the 10-seed, Minnesota would have first opportunity to accept an invitation to host a super-regional between them and anyone from the LSU region except for LSU, provided they submitted a bid.

The NCAA will at some point start seeding 32 teams rather than the current 16, like they did with volleyball last year. Under that scenario, Louisiana would probably hold the upper hand, since they finished the season at RPI #11 and likely would have been seeded higher than Minnesota.

 

[rwlarson]

I should have added that the above rules for a pair of 2-seeds winning opposite regionals is based not just on applying to host, but the NCAA deeming both host bids equally acceptable.

Potential hosts must submit a budget and complete a facility site scorecard when submitting a bid. It asks the preparer to mark each listed criteria as fully, partially, or not compliant.

I see nothing on this scorecard that would prevent Minnesota from marking fully-compliant for each criteria listed, and we were obviously approved to host a super-regional as recently as 2019.

However, Louisiana has invested heavily in upgrading Lamson Park over the years. Its capacity is now nearly three times what Jane Sage Cowles can hold, even with some temporary seating added. So revenue from ticket sales could come into play here.

How the NCAA would view a disparity in potential revenue in making a decision on which team should get to host when the difference isn’t likely to be a huge amount, in the grand scheme of things, is anybody’s guess.

 

[rugger14]

Before the tournament, all teams have the opportunity to submit bids to host regionals and super-regionals. Usually, this is something most teams do routinely even if they know there is little chance they will be seeded 1-16.

It does come into play if two unseeded teams win opposite regionals. In that case, the first criteria is whether one or both teams submitted a bid to host super-regionals.

I believe the second criteria is whether the teams involved were 2-seed, 3-seed, or 4-seed in the region they won. A 2-seed hosts over a winning 3-seed, etc.

If both teams are the same regional seed, as is most often the case when this happens, the team that won the regional at the highest seed hosts.

Since Washington is the 7-seed and LSU the 10-seed, Minnesota would have first opportunity to accept an invitation to host a super-regional between them and anyone from the LSU region except for LSU, provided they submitted a bid.

The NCAA will at some point start seeding 32 teams rather than the current 16, like they did with volleyball last year. Under that scenario, Louisiana would probably hold the upper hand, since they finished the season at RPI #11 and likely would have been seeded higher than Minnesota.

That is great information. For some reason I thought the higher ranked team got to host the Supers. So you're saying there is a chance!