Gopher softball 2023

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Ski U Mah Gopher said:
For all of you with angst over the Colgate loss - here are some other scores this weekend:

Lehigh 7 - Alabama 4
Longwood 5 - Florida St 4

If games like the Colgate game continue to happen, then it's trouble. Right now it's a blip.
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Difference is, Alabama and Florida State are locks for the NCAA tournament. Losses to Colgate could be the reason the Gophers don't get invited.
 

Ski U Mah Gopher said:
For all of you with angst over the Colgate loss - here are some other scores this weekend:

Lehigh 7 - Alabama 4
Longwood 5 - Florida St 4

If games like the Colgate game continue to happen, then it's trouble. Right now it's a blip.
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2022 RPI:
Lehigh: 89
Longwood: 70
Colgate: 229

One of these is not like the others.
 


Chase the Rise said:
View attachment 23939

Not a blip. And Maryland is now in the top 25.
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I was quite cranky about that loss at the time it happened but have mellowed out about it some since then.

That loss may have appropriately popped any fan’s delusions that we were going to be incredibly good this year. But in my mind right now, it was just a crappy one-run loss. Those losses happen in bat and ball sports.

Therefore, I am more closely in agreement with the “just a blip” crowd than the catastrophe crowd on the impact of the Colgate loss. Time to learn and move on; and honestly, Colgate played a lot better, with better results for themselves, on Saturday and Sunday than they did on Friday.
 
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A P5 team competing for an at-large bid can’t afford more than one or two losses to sub-200 RPI teams unless it plays a lot of Top 25 teams and holds its own in those games. That allows its own RPI to be good enough that a tournament bid is a foregone conclusion.

Unfortunately, Our schedule this year probably won’t afford us many opportunities against projected Top 25 RPI teams.

I’m still bullish on this team if we can find two more hitters (other than Bradley, Oakland, Den Hartog, and Krapf) that can hit close to .300 and if Piper can figure out when to make pitching moves to keep opponents off balance. She hasn’t really had to manage a staff in this way for several years now.
 


Freshman of the Week
Jess Oakland, Minnesota
SS – San Jose, Calif. – Saint Francis – Intended Major: Kinesiology
• Recorded a .500 batting average, 1.125 slugging percentage and .619 on-base percentage with eight hits (five for extra bases), two home runs, 13 RBI and six runs scored to help Minnesota to a 4-1 record at the season-opening Northern Lights/Southern Nights Invitational in Leesburg, Fla.
• Had at least one hit, one run and one RBI in all five games, including four-RBI outings against Butler (Feb. 10) and Portland State (Feb. 11)
• Also hit home runs and drove in two in each of the Golden Gophers’ final two games against Colgate (Feb. 11) and Western Kentucky (Sunday)
• Captures her first Big Ten Freshman of the Week award
• Last Minnesota Freshman of the Week: Emily Leavitt (May 9, 2022)
 

I have done a lot of research over the years, and I have come across this website that is pretty good on RPI. They have us at 38 at the moment. So, if the season ended today, we would be in.

Massey Ratings - College Softball : NCAA D1 Ratings

Computer ratings and rankings for CSOFT (College Softball), with links to team predictions, scores, and schedules.
masseyratings.com
 


rwlarson said:
A P5 team competing for an at-large bid can’t afford more than one or two losses to sub-200 RPI teams unless it plays a lot of Top 25 teams and holds its own in those games. That allows its own RPI to be good enough that a tournament bid is a foregone conclusion.

Unfortunately, Our schedule this year probably won’t afford us many opportunities against projected Top 25 RPI teams.

I’m still bullish on this team if we can find two more hitters (other than Bradley, Oakland, Den Hartog, and Krapf) that can hit close to .300 and if Piper can figure out when to make pitching moves to keep opponents off balance. She hasn’t really had to manage a staff in this way for several years now.
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I agree; they have some real talent, but two things are needed, as you mentioned, consistent pitching from all four in the circle and strong assertive hitting from Strelow, Cox,Valencia, and Elke; the bottom 4 in the batting order has to produce big time!
 



At least Strelow and Cox have proven themselves before in clutch situations, even if neither is likely to post a very high batting average at this point in their careers. I was very high on Valencia after watching her smash line drives all over the yard in the fall of her freshman year. It would be great if Ehlke could figure out pitching at this level — her power is undeniable, but she needs to make more consistent contact. I think Leschber is the most likely to break through and be a high average hitter right away. Burnett has potential to be a dynamic player but she seemed to struggle making contact against good off speed stuff when I watched her this fall.
 

TRUTH said:
I have done a lot of research over the years, and I have come across this website that is pretty good on RPI. They have us at 38 at the moment. So, if the season ended today, we would be in.

Massey Ratings - College Softball : NCAA D1 Ratings

Computer ratings and rankings for CSOFT (College Softball), with links to team predictions, scores, and schedules.
masseyratings.com
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Massey has a proprietary formula that I like for softball especially over using RPI to rate teams because it takes into account dominance by including margin of victory.

There is really no disputing that in softball, elite teams pile up a large number of run-rule victories.
 

rwlarson said:
At least Strelow and Cox have proven themselves before in clutch situations, even if neither is likely to post a very high batting average at this point in their careers. I was very high on Valencia after watching her smash line drives all over the yard in the fall of her freshman year. It would be great if Ehlke could figure out pitching at this level — her power is undeniable, but she needs to make more consistent contact. I think Leschber is the most likely to break through and be a high average hitter right away. Burnett has potential to be a dynamic player but she seemed to struggle making contact against good off speed stuff when I watched her this fall.
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My impression also of Valencia in fall ball freshman year. A superstar in the making, it appeared (also with the glove at first base).
 

Through the first weekend of the year, the Gophers are leading the Big Ten in all the major batting categories: average, total bases and homers.

Despite that fact from the Big Ten statistics website, I think we all saw that there is room for improvement in our offense. That is especially true of the bottom of the order.
 



rwlarson said:
At least Strelow and Cox have proven themselves before in clutch situations, even if neither is likely to post a very high batting average at this point in their careers. I was very high on Valencia after watching her smash line drives all over the yard in the fall of her freshman year. It would be great if Ehlke could figure out pitching at this level — her power is undeniable, but she needs to make more consistent contact. I think Leschber is the most likely to break through and be a high average hitter right away. Burnett has potential to be a dynamic player but she seemed to struggle making contact against good off speed stuff when I watched her this fall.
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I don’t understand this. I can’t knock the decision to play Strelow, her defense is fantastic. On a decent team, she’s a bottom of the lineup type kid. Low average, low power numbers, too many k’s. But her defense puts her in the lineup….but a proven clutch hitter….not a chance.

Cox is worse. I can’t remember one “clutch” moment in time for her. So proven? When? The .083 batting average is enough to put her on the bench. Prior years haven’t been better.

Valencia has potential…I think.

Ehlke shouldn’t be anything other than a pinch hitter at this point. Her swing is looong and slooooow. Just don’t see her being a regular in the lineup.

Leschber looks like she might have a little grittiness to her….totally should get more at bats.

Burnett needs to get bunts down and use her speed, her swings leave something to be desired.

The bottom of the order needs to get better. Bottom line.
 

Chase the Rise said:
I don’t understand this. I can’t knock the decision to play Strelow, her defense is fantastic. On a decent team, she’s a bottom of the lineup type kid. Low average, low power numbers, too many k’s. But her defense puts her in the lineup….but a proven clutch hitter….not a chance.

Cox is worse. I can’t remember one “clutch” moment in time for her. So proven? When? The .083 batting average is enough to put her on the bench. Prior years haven’t been better.

Valencia has potential…I think.

Ehlke shouldn’t be anything other than a pinch hitter at this point. Her swing is looong and slooooow. Just don’t see her being a regular in the lineup.

Leschber looks like she might have a little grittiness to her….totally should get more at bats.

Burnett needs to get bunts down and use her speed, her swings leave something to be desired.

The bottom of the order needs to get better. Bottom line.
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Strelow base hit to beat Florida State and Cox PH HR to beat Northwestern. Clutch hits in tight ballgames on the road against very good competition. So, I’d argue that they have proven they can come through in the clutch, unlike the rest of the players being discussed above.

I agree with you that Ehlke is likely not an everyday player. We’ve seen two seasons of her and she hasn’t shown anything but the ability to either walk or strikeout. She has shown power in fall ball and yes, it was against lower-level pitching. But she could make a significant contribution by hitting just one home run at the right time in postseason so she needs to keep grinding away.

Chavez improving her average to near .300 isn’t beyond the realm of possibility given what she did as a freshman, and I think Valencia and Leschber could both eventually hit for average and some power. Whether that will be this year or not, time will tell.
 

rwlarson said:
Strelow base hit to beat Florida State and Cox PH HR to beat Northwestern. Clutch hits in tight ballgames on the road against very good competition. So, I’d argue that they have proven they can come through in the clutch, unlike the rest of the players being discussed above.

I agree with you that Ehlke is likely not an everyday player. We’ve seen two seasons of her and she hasn’t shown anything but the ability to either walk or strikeout. She has shown power in fall ball and yes, it was against lower-level pitching. But she could make a significant contribution by hitting just one home run at the right time in postseason so she needs to keep grinding away.

Chavez improving her average to near .300 isn’t beyond the realm of possibility given what she did as a freshman, and I think Valencia and Leschber could both eventually hit for average and some power. Whether that will be this year or not, time will tell.
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I think this rwlawson analysis is about right.

The only thing for me to add to it is that these players; Strelow, Chavez, Leschber, Valencia, and Cox; are our last 5 batters (after Bradley, Den Hartog, Oakland, and Krapf) so these are the batters we will be seeing in the regular lineup this year. This year just isn’t like the last couple years where we had 22-25 person rosters when fans like me could complain about who the coaches are keeping on the bench with swing speed to offer. The Gophers have a 19-woman roster this year so the above batters are just going to have to make contact. I think it is safe for the fan to say based on coaching decisions that it is these 5 names who are the players with the highest likeliest to drive the ball into gaps or over the fence and therefore fill out our regular batting order.
 

ClassOf98Gopher said:
Through the first weekend of the year, the Gophers are leading the Big Ten in all the major batting categories: average, total bases and homers.

Despite that fact from the Big Ten statistics website, I think we all saw that there is room for improvement in our offense. That is especially true of the bottom of the order.
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Just to add to this the Gophers are 7th in ERA and 7th in Fielding %.
 

Late to the party, but definitely in the camp that is not panicking after a single one-run loss. Like others have said, that will happen in softball and baseball. I think this is going to be a pretty fun year. Looking forward to getting my kids to their first gopher softball game.
 

Ok, so with the above statements in consideration what is everyone's expectation for this wknd? Or perhaps what would you consider not a problem after this wknd.

3-1 is what I expect. 2-2 is what I think will happen.
 


mngolf said:
Ok, so with the above statements in consideration what is everyone's expectation for this wknd? Or perhaps what would you consider not a problem after this wknd.

3-1 is what I expect. 2-2 is what I think will happen.
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3-1 should be the goal. Virginia isn't a great team, UNC is better, but beatable. I'm predicting a 4-0 weekend. Clean up some of the hitting...we'll be just fine.
 

mngolf said:
Ok, so with the above statements in consideration what is everyone's expectation for this wknd? Or perhaps what would you consider not a problem after this wknd.

3-1 is what I expect. 2-2 is what I think will happen.
Click to expand...
Virginia was #8 in the ACC preseason poll and UNC was #11, so the goal should absolutely be 4-0 as neither Virginia nor UNC are likely tournament teams. That said, I'm not confident the Gophs will sweep. I think they'll beat UNC twice but split with Virginia for a 3-1 weekend. Anything less than 3-1 will not be a good sign.
 

As much as I argue for elite (or at least very strong) pitching, it's hard to overlook GopherSBFan's recent argument that powerful hitting & run production throughout the lineup are the key to winning in this era of D1 softball. Score runs & make the opponent play from behind. We're all weary and frustrated after 3 yr. of seeing Gophers' last 5 hitters in the lineup go down meekly to mediocre pitchers and lose chances to salt games away with timely hits to the outfield. Cox, Valencia, Strelow, Elke, & maybe another I've left out all have the power & bat speed to hit. The hitting coach, whoever it is, needs to get them attacking the ball. With the 4 hitters ahead of them there are plenty of baserunners to drive in.
 

Northwestern struggling again, 5-0 and counting bottom 2nd vs Clemson would be 2-3 with loss
 



Forgot about Jones until the announcer mentioned her as a former Gopher. Pease got her swinging.
 

Strelow has the first solid Gopher hit in the top of the 3rd.
 
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