Gopher-Purdue pick

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cjbfbp said:
Well, that's exactly what happened two years ago. Purdue beat Iowa 38-36 on November 3rd. Iowa beat Minnesota handily earlier in the season. Two weeks after Purdue beat Iowa, Minnesota absolutely hammered Purdue.
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The problem with that is this: they'll both be Friday night games at TCF, in similarish conditions, one week apart. Purdue's early win with no home crowd advantage this year then shows that these teams are very close.

And will we be fired up to get a win, or will we be brow beaten and hungover from Iowa's beating? Either of those concepts could be a factor, either way.
 

The defense has improved since the first two games. They gave up a respectable 346 yards to Iowa. They gave up 35 points but Iowa had short fields all night long.

Our defense has been particularly terrible against the run. While it's gotten better lately, we still gave up 6.7 yards per rush to Iowa. However, Purdue is possibly the worst rushing team in the conference (63.7 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry).

Purdue is the most pass intensive offense in the league. To date, we haven't given up a lot of passing yards (3rd lowest per game in the league) but maybe that's because we've been so easy to run against.

Defensively, Purdue isn't bad against the run (3.8 yards per carry) but nowhere near as good as Iowa (the best conference defense against the run at 2.8 yards per carry). We averaged 3.6 net rushing yards per carry (better if you take out sacks) against Iowa so we should be able to get fair rushing yardage against Purdue.

Purdue gives up a lot of passing yards (second most in the league) although their pass defense efficiency isn't bad.

In short, Purdue isn't nearly as good as Iowa on defense and their offense is fairly one-dimensional. I like our chances in this one especially if Tanner and the receivers can break out.

Minnesota - 31; Purdue - 27
 

Hammer the gophers.

In a regular season we would’ve been 2-1 or 3-0 in non conference


this is the game that would move us to 5-3
 

Sure. But they beat Iowa head-to-head. And they hung tough with NW, who also beat Iowa.
 
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MplsGopher said:
The problem with that is this: they'll both be Friday night games at TCF, in similarish conditions, one week apart. Purdue's early win with no home crowd advantage this year then shows that these teams are very close.

And will we be fired up to get a win, or will we be brow beaten and hungover from Iowa's beating? Either of those concepts could be a factor, either way.
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I certainly don't think we'll hammer Purdue like two years ago. I'm just stating that Minnesota did beat Purdue after losing to Iowa and Iowa losing to Purdue two years ago.

As I stated in another post, I think we have a fair shot in this one because our defense has improved since the first two games and Purdue is one of the worst rushing teams in the conference (rushing defense is our biggest Achilles heal). I have to think that our offense does better this week than last week.
 


I have to think that our offense does better this week than last week.

Tough to imagine them doing worse.
 

MplsGopher said:
Sure. But they beat Iowa head-to-head. And they hung tough with NW, who I think will also beat Iowa.
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NW did actually beat Iowa in a very close game, but perhaps you meant that and mistyped. I just don't think the West is very strong outside of Wisconsin, but obviously time will tell. The Purdue - Iowa game was also very close. I didn't watch much, but the box score says Iowa put up almost 500 yards of offense but turned it over 3 times in PU territory. Looks like PU also turned it over twice.

I completely understand the attitude of checking out on Minnesota's chances of victory until they prove something against a team other than COVID-depleted Illinois, but I also don't think it's unreasonable to assume MN has a chance in this one. Who would've thought after the non-con games last year Minnesota would go into Ross-Ade and just lay the wood for most of that game? I certainly wouldn't have. PU's defense is a big step down from Iowa, and the MN D actually played decent through 3 quarters last week. At one point late in the game, MN had outgained Iowa like 180 - 150. I couldn't believe that when I saw it.

So while I definitely won't bet on Minnesota and have pretty much tried to emotionally detach from the results the rest of the year, I think it's realistic that this is a close game -- and possibly even a win.
 

Doh! Thanks for the correction, fixed.

I think Purdue, Iowa, and NW for sure are all very close, as the second tier of the conf. I am not sure if Nebraska is also with them or down closer to Gophers and Illinois, but I sadly suspect the former, though I'm hoping for the latter. If there is one other team we beat this year, with Wisc not on the table, please let it be Neb.


Purdue game last year: freak play cost them their starting QB and Rondale Moore, for the rest of the game? They lost them both at some point anyway. We were laying the wood ... but they made a game out of it in the second half.
 

MplsGopher said:
Purdue game last year: freak play cost them their starting QB and Rondale Moore, for the rest of the game? They lost them both at some point anyway. We were laying the wood ... but they made a game out of it in the second half.
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That is true but, as I recall, freshman David Bell replaced Rondale Moore when Moore left the game. Bell had a very good game in that one, proceeded to have an outstanding freshman season, and ended up as Big Ten freshman of the year and 3rd team All Big Ten wide receiver.
 



Captain obvious says: we'll need huge games from Durr, Howard, and J Harris. They shouldn't expect a ton of help over the top.
 

Gophers - 42
Purdue - 14

Big win for GopherNation
 

It's amazing how many people are predicting us to get demolished. This is a team that beat Illinois beat Illinois by 7 despite 4 Illini turnovers (pick at the Purdue 19, fumble at the Purdue 22, pick at their own 8, and a fumble returned for a TD). I expect us to to move the ball. I don't expect the Iowa results to be as transitive as some are indicating (Iowa also turned it over in the red zone once and on the edge once). I think it'll be a tight one either way.
 

Illinois - Purdue is a huge rivalry for them, at it was at Illinois. So I discount that game more than the Purdue-Iowa result.
 



cjbfbp said:
Well, that's exactly what happened two years ago. Purdue beat Iowa 38-36 on November 3rd. Iowa beat Minnesota handily earlier in the season. Two weeks after Purdue beat Iowa, Minnesota absolutely hammered Purdue.
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Yes but we know that had everything to do with the DC and his scheme.
 

MplsGopher said:
Illinois - Purdue is a huge rivalry for them, at it was at Illinois. So I discount that game more than the Purdue-Iowa result.
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I mean it's a possibility I guess. Illinois was also playing their 3rd string QB so...
just saying there are many ways to slice it and I have a hard time feeling Purdue is multiple TDs better than us on any given day
 

MplsGopher said:
Illinois - Purdue is a huge rivalry for them, at it was at Illinois. So I discount that game more than the Purdue-Iowa result.
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Man, it's been quite shocking to see the total 180 with your tone this week. Really really finding the darkness in every single thread. Things are going to be okay. Just remember how we felt after the 2018 loss to Illinois. Everyone was out for PJs head. Weeks later the same people were slurping him HARD after we beat the Badgers.

Regardless of whether we beat Purdue, it's going to be OKAY. There already is a track record of progress and growth through the season in both 2018 and 2019. This week is only the halfway point. But even if we lose every game the rest of this year, it's still definitely going to be OKAY. We have nice recruits coming in. Guys will grow and learn from their mistakes in the offseason. But even if we lose to Ohio State to open 2021, it's still going to be OKAY.
 



WhoFellDownTheGopherHole? said:
I wish i thought something else, but i don't think the Gophers will break 20 points again in any game this year.


P: 27
G: 16 (missed XP)
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Gophers have scored 79 points against the Boilermakers' D the last two years (41 in 2018, 38 in 2019). That isn't going to stop this year.
Illinois scored 24 on their defense this year, and Illinois is a horrible offense, considering the worst defense in the B1G held them to only 14.
Gophers will get comfortably above 30 points.

Tanner won't break his records he set against Purdue last year, but he will have a massive bounce back game (after his worst career start against Iowa), and continue his consecutive games with a TD streak. Mo chases 200 yards again, few TDs' and defense does enough.

Gophers win this one, 38-31.
 

I view this as a game that the Gophers will seriously dig deep and "man up" to the challenge. They know how the expectations compare to how they've performed. I think they get it done this weekend. Probably ugly at times.

35-33 Gophers.
 

upnorthkid said:
I mean it's a possibility I guess. Illinois was also playing their 3rd string QB so...
just saying there are many ways to slice it and I have a hard time feeling Purdue is multiple TDs better than us on any given day
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And going into the Iowa game, I thought that even with all our challenges this year, there was no way that Iowa could embarrass us on our home field.

Every week is a new season. I do believe, no matter who is saying it. So maybe things will be drastically different.
 

WriterGoph said:
Man, it's been quite shocking to see the total 180 with your tone this week. Really really finding the darkness in every single thread. Things are going to be okay. Just remember how we felt after the 2018 loss to Illinois. Everyone was out for PJs head. Weeks later the same people were slurping him HARD after we beat the Badgers.

Regardless of whether we beat Purdue, it's going to be OKAY. There already is a track record of progress and growth through the season in both 2018 and 2019. This week is only the halfway point. But even if we lose every game the rest of this year, it's still definitely going to be OKAY. We have nice recruits coming in. Guys will grow and learn from their mistakes in the offseason. But even if we lose to Ohio State to open 2021, it's still going to be OKAY.
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You do recall that something radical changed after the Illinois 2018 game, right? That wasn't at all the same thing as not changing anything.

I would be shocked if we changed much of anything scheme wise or personnel wise from last week.

Coaches keep saying essentially "we're doing everything right, we're just not making plays for some reason".

Maybe all the players will decide that they should make some more plays this week.
 

I thought we would play Michigan tough, and destroy Maryland, I figured Illinois would be a tough one and I thought we could take Iowa; so....I have no clue about this one either.
 





I nailed the score! After 3 quarters anyways. Most importantly, I move up to a perfect 5-0 ATS on Gopher football games this year.

I was also correct on this would be a close to the numbers game that could go either way. The line actually moved from Purdue -3 to the Gophers -2.5 so the betting public was correct. This was the first line all season that wasn't soft and beaten by 3 TD's.
 

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