Gopher Hockey Season Thread 25-26

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upnorthkid said:
On that note, win the next 4 and there is hope. 6-2 over the final 8 is the minimum to have hopes at an AL. I don't see that happening, but I'll hold onto hope until it's official.
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No chance. From a probability side not from a Gopher's winning six side. Maybe if they go 8-0 but i doubt it even then. The hole they dug is too big. They have 16 losses already. Crazy.
 


bonin21 said:
No chance. From a probability side not from a Gopher's winning six side. Maybe if they go 8-0 but i doubt it even then. The hole they dug is too big. They have 16 losses already. Crazy.
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Rough estimates based on NPI customizer as obviously can change based on other teams results
8-0: 14; would probably need 1 win postseason
7-1: 15/16; would need 2 wins
6-2: 19-20 and unlikely, but not impossible with winning 2 games. You'd need chalk everywhere though (so I'd put it at very, very near zero)
5-3 or worse then yes it's completely over aside from winning the BTT.

They will get a bump from winning any postseason games. NPI will also get more squirrely for the next week or two as more teams hit the 12 win threshold where "bad wins" can get discarded, but the KRACH and PWR/NPI come together as the year ends which tells you this team has far more upward mobility than downward at this point (similar to a bunch of NCHC teams who will likely rise to the cutline)

Again I very very very much doubt they do it. The only real comparable year I can think of with you citing the 16 losses was the year we ran roughshod over the B10 and PSU and OSU got in as the 8-9 with 15 losses each or the year Duluth got in just ahead of our Gophers with 16 losses. That said, team only has themselves to blame for blowing several late losses and playing like complete shit against MTU and LIU.
 
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Maybe others don't feel the same but in decades of watching Gopher hockey...

Ziemer has somehow quietly stacked up an incredible 18 goals through 27 games. Lots of PPG, but...

.666 goals/game
.462 goals/game career

Jimmy Snuggerud, the best pure goalscorer to come through the program in 20 years, peaked at 0.6 goals per game in a season (and a steady 0.555 goals per game over three years).

You MUST get one more year out of him. He's not ready to leave yet.
 

bonin21 said:
Maybe others don't feel the same but in decades of watching Gopher hockey...

Ziemer has somehow quietly stacked up an incredible 18 goals through 27 games. Lots of PPG, but...

.666 goals/game
.462 goals/game career

Jimmy Snuggerud, the best pure goalscorer to come through the program in 20 years, peaked at 0.6 goals per game in a season (and a steady 0.555 goals per game over three years).

You MUST get one more year out of him. He's not ready to leave yet.
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They've got a bunch of AHL guys and several other NCAA prospects ahead of him (moreso based on age). I would be completely shocked if he wasn't back next year. He just turned 19 and was Bob's WJC captain. Add to that and he seems to love the U so he'll be back and likely the captain next year (seems like a no brainer to me)

The bigger kicker is that the Sabers now looking at contending this year and should be buyers rather than sellers. He certainly is one that could get moved.

On your scoring note, I picked him to lead the team in scoring this year. He just has a knack for goals and can score from all levels.
 


Yep, if Ziemer and Mooney come back they could each have a monster 26-27. Barring surprise departures, if we see progression from some of the younger players, plus continued strong play from LDP, we could be a couple of portal/CHL defensemen away from righting this ship fairly quickly.

That said, the blue line needs serious, significant upgrades for that to happen. Not just a couple of half-competent placeholders.
 

The blue line can't be salvaged in one offseason losing Thomas and Mittelstadt. It is the worst I can recall and putting hope on a kid turning 18 in October is setting up for disappointment.
 

bonin21 said:
The blue line can't be salvaged in one offseason losing Thomas and Mittelstadt. It is the worst I can recall and putting hope on a kid turning 18 in October is setting up for disappointment.
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I know I am stretching a bit here but:

Gruba and Whipple have proven to be reliable for the most part.
Rombach has come a long way with how awful he looked early on.
Same with McLaughlin albeit to a lesser extent. He was a decently rated recruit so there has to be some potential in there.
Add a couple of high end transfers/CHL + Grimes and who knows. Not a title contending blue line but maybe enough to see some high end hockey again.

I realize this is seeing things through maroon & gold colored glasses, but what's the point of following if not for a little blind hope here & there.
 

Gruba/Whipple/Rombach are serviceable second pair I guess, but barely in the case of Gruba and Rombach.
Mclaughlin is third pair, DU had no issue discarding him for a reason
Grimes and Phillips will struggle next year. Bottom pair
Harper is not Luke Hughes. He'd have a long year if he comes in next year.

I just don't see where you're going to find two top pairing D men. Bring in two more middle pairing guys and I suppose overall they'll look better but still not acceptable for Gopher hockey.

Next year's expected "impact score" for these guys, out of 10:
Whipple 6.5/10
Gruba: 5/10
Rombach: 5/10
Harper: 4.5/10
McLaughlin: 4/10
Grimes: 3/10
Phillips: 2/10
Rud/Begley: 1/10

Something like 7.5 and above would be top pairing guys with 8 and above sure fire top pairing guys. I think Whipple is the best hockey player of that bunch... For next year that is.

I'd like second pairing guys to be between 6 and 7.5 hence the concerns.

2022-23 team:
Faber: 10/10
Lacombe: 9/10
Johnson: 8.5/10
Koster: 7/10
Mittelstadt: 6.5/10
Chesley: 6.5/10
Thomas: 6/10
 
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bonin21 said:
Gruba/Whipple/Rombach are serviceable second pair I guess, but barely in the case of Gruba and Rombach.
Mclaughlin is third pair, DU had no issue discarding him for a reason
Grimes and Phillips will struggle next year. Bottom pair
Harper is not Luke Hughes. He'd have a long year if he comes in next year.

I just don't see where you're going to find two top pairing D men. Bring in two more middle pairing guys and I suppose overall they'll look better but still not acceptable for Gopher hockey.

Next year's expected "impact score" for these guys, out of 10:
Whipple 6.5/10
Gruba: 5/10
Rombach: 5/10
Harper: 4.5/10
McLaughlin: 4/10
Grimes: 3/10
Phillips: 2/10
Rud/Begley: 1/10

Something like 7.5 and above would be top pairing guys with 8 and above sure fire top pairing guys. I think Whipple is the best hockey player of that bunch... For next year that is.

I'd like second pairing guys to be between 6 and 7.5 hence the concerns.

2022-23 team:
Faber: 10/10
Lacombe: 9/10
Johnson: 8.5/10
Koster: 7/10
Mittelstadt: 6.5/10
Chesley: 6.5/10
Thomas: 6/10
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i mean comparing it to one of the best defense cores ever in college hockey isn't fair, given it does not take that to win a FF (definitely wasn't Western's last year).

I will say, I do agree with your player ratings overall (though I'd probably put Harper higher provided the role he is asked to play is PP time and a mid-lower pair role with us dressing 7 D as he grows and develops).

Given that, yes you need to add 1-2 defensemen (and I'd ideally have Phillips being pushed out another year versus being a healthy scratch and so that Rud/Begley don't touch the ice). They don't need to be world beaters, just solid and efficient, nor even dynamic offensively though that certainly helps. Michigan's top point getting defenseman has 16 points. Whoever gets to be on PP1 with Mooney and Ziemer is going to have some points (see Mittelstadt's stat column for example lol).

Maybe they can pull Murr and we can watch Mankato have a meltdown. There are also a couple at UST or Augustana who could be candidates. If Bob refuses to use the portal to address that, then yes it's going to be a long year and he will be let go. Should be an interesting offseason whenever we get there.
 

upnorthkid said:
Maybe they can pull Murr and we can watch Mankato have a meltdown. There are also a couple at UST or Augustana who could be candidates. If Bob refuses to use the portal to address that, then yes it's going to be a long year and he will be let go. Should be an interesting offseason whenever we get there.
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Even Murr is not the kind of talent you need two of to fix this.

You'll need AT LEAST one first rounder. Period.
 

bonin21 said:
Even Murr is not the kind of talent you need two of to fix this.

You'll need AT LEAST one first rounder. Period.
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Michigan has zero 1st rounders playing defense.
MSU has zero 1st rounders playing defense.
PSU has one
ND has one who's playing the 3rd most minutes as their defensive pairs go (I am counting Verhoeff as he will certainly be a top 2-3 pick) and another who is playing the 4th (weirdly enough, their undrafted D guys and 7th rounder are probably their bigger cogs)
WMU has none
Providence has none
UMD has none
QU has none
Dartmouth has none
Denver has none

I guess Wisconsin does who we just swept. BU has one and has one of the worst defenses in the country to this point.

There are like 3 1st round pick defensemen playing in the NCAA (and 18 total overall). This team needs guys who can play right now, move the puck, and play sound defense.

I guess when this is literally how crazy you view things, it makes sense why you're in a panic as there is literally no way you can fix that. You think if took Robertson and Duke (Michigan) or Basgall and Geary (MSU) caliber players to this team that this team isn't way better?

I'd love it if they went and got Carson Carels, Daxon Rudolph, or Ryan Lin. Maybe Mrtka wants to come hang out with his future teammate Ziemer for next year or you can convince Cameron Reid. I hope they try. I'm more just saying there are numerous pathways and I do think they need additional upperclassmen help on this team who have played at the college level and shown they can move the puck and play solid defense. Same as teams taking solid veterans everywhere else who are playing key cog roles. No they don't take you over the top, but they raise the floor and you need some of that for stability
 

I mostly meant to salvage that D unit you need a superstar. Those other teams have solid top 4s so don't need an out and out star. Those teams have 7s with some 8s and some 6. Gophers are going into next year with 5s and 6s.
 





bonin21 said:
Need a first round superstar I didn't change my opinion...
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You really don’t. Michigan state added shoudy and Colin Ralph. It balances your whole group. Defenseman’s biggest jumps are typically fresh to sophomore and sophomore to junior.

If we went back 2 months ago, you would’ve said none of these guys should be on a Gopher roster, much less be a 2nd pair. They can go big game hunting (and I hope they do) but if you add two experienced, solid transfer players, it makes everyone’s lives easier, the breakouts are simpler, and you give up less possession, shots and goals. It’s what both Michigan and Michigan State did, who have less draft pick talent on the back end but went with solid defense first players. Guys like Jackson Smith and Sam Rinzel are fun, but I’ll also take 4-6 Koster, Mitts, Chesley, and Thomas every single day as it’s a formula that wins. This roster may not sparkle day one, but I do really like the trajectory of what I’ve seen from Whipple and have hopes for Rombach by next year and Gruba seems to finally be adjusted to the speed where he’s not getting roasted by pinching like he did in the USHL.

But they must, absolutely, 100% not be thinking begley or rud are playing any minutes and so you need to add 2 guys of similar caliber to the guys I mentioned above (again joy of targeting upperclassmen off lower teams with ties to
MN, only reason I listed those I did) to balance roles and also to give Harper time to acclimate without a heavy defensive role (similar to what UND did/has done with Verhoeff) if you’re bringing him in.

I do hope they try land some of the big fish, but I’m not going to claim season over if they only land a couple solid upperclassmen (again team this year looks better if they would’ve gotten say Colin Ralph and Sabo, again just picking guys with MN ties)
 

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