Gopher Bowl projection

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The ACC school might be Virginia Tech. Win their last two games and they win the Coastal and would end the regular season at 9-3.
 

MnplsGopher said:
The only scenario we would have to worry about, at all, is if Penn St loses this week and we lose this week to NW.

That's the one where, say we then beat Wisconsin and go to the BT champ game at 10-2. Penn St would also be 10-2 (assuming they finish out with a win over Mich St). Then we lose in the champ game to Ohio St and end up 10-3. They remain 10-2. Ohio St goes to the CFP. Penn St is then the highest ranked team after Ohio St.

That's where we'd get screwed by playing in the BT champ game, and taking an extra loss.
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I'm going to amend this, based on an answer I gave in another thread.

It's far less likely than the one I described above, but that isn't the only one we have to worry about. Sadly, we do also have to worry, a little bit, about the scenario where we beat NW and Wisc, then lose the BT champ game, finishing 11-2, while Penn St finishes 10-2 (same as above), and our losses to Ohio St are by about the same amount.

In that case, it's still possible the committee could say something like "they both lost to Ohio State by about the same, PSU's loss was in Columbus while Gophers loss was in Indy, and they both lost a close game on the road, PSU to the Gophers and the Gophers to Iowa, the latter of which we consider to be a slightly worse loss, and given all these factors and how they look on film, we think PSU would beat the Gophers at a neutral field."


Both of these scenarios, however far-fetched, would possibly mean PSU gets selected for the Rose.

The Big Ten has had two Orange bowls in non-semi years, to the SEC's one. So I could see Alabama getting the Orange, if indeed both Georgia and LSU end up in the CFP. The 2nd place ACC team is not going to be great.
 

End of the day, we either want PSU to lose *big* today to OSU, or PSU to upset OSU.
 




MnplsGopher said:
Why is that? It seems like VT, UVA, and Pitt all have a decent shot.
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They do all have a shot

Percentages based on overall play to this point favor UVa. Best qb, best defense. Most complete team (Pitt does look good as of late).

Likely part of it is they play in Charlottesville after Tgiving this year against tech.
 

MnplsGopher said:
I'm going to amend this, based on an answer I gave in another thread.

It's far less likely than the one I described above, but that isn't the only one we have to worry about. Sadly, we do also have to worry, a little bit, about the scenario where we beat NW and Wisc, then lose the BT champ game, finishing 11-2, while Penn St finishes 10-2 (same as above), and our losses to Ohio St are by about the same amount.

In that case, it's still possible the committee could say something like "they both lost to Ohio State by about the same, PSU's loss was in Columbus while Gophers loss was in Indy, and they both lost a close game on the road, PSU to the Gophers and the Gophers to Iowa, the latter of which we consider to be a slightly worse loss, and given all these factors and how they look on film, we think PSU would beat the Gophers at a neutral field."


Both of these scenarios, however far-fetched, would possibly mean PSU gets selected for the Rose.

The Big Ten has had two Orange bowls in non-semi years, to the SEC's one. So I could see Alabama getting the Orange, if indeed both Georgia and LSU end up in the CFP. The 2nd place ACC team is not going to be great.
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Assume in this scenario OSU wins out and goes to CFP
What happens is we lose to WI (perish the thought) and Bucky gets blown out by OSU again -

PSU is 10-2, Gophers 10-2, Bucky 10-3
Who gets ranked higher and goes to Rose?
 

It’s simple...

1) when we beat Wisconsin and lose to OSU we go to the Rose bowl.

2) when we beat Wisconsin and we beat OSU ( David vs Goliath) we make the CFP

It’s a win win either way. No more music city bowl or eukenuba dog and cat food bowl (I made that up)
 

cemba99 said:
Assume in this scenario OSU wins out and goes to CFP
What happens is we lose to WI (perish the thought) and Bucky gets blown out by OSU again -

PSU is 10-2, Gophers 10-2, Bucky 10-3
Who gets ranked higher and goes to Rose?
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I think that one makes it easier for the committee to put PSU as the highest ranked team of those three.
 



MnplsGopher said:
I think that one makes it easier for the committee to put PSU as the highest ranked team of those three.
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I think there's a decent chance we'd get it even if we're not the best of the 3 in the rankings. It's been long enough that we should travel better than a team where a rose bowl appearance isn't anything special.
 

GoGophersUMN said:
I think there's a decent chance we'd get it even if we're not the best of the 3 in the rankings. It's been long enough that we should travel better than a team where a rose bowl appearance isn't anything special.
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Doesn’t the highest ranked Big Ten team (after OSU going to CFP) by definition go the the Rose? I am not aware of any way around that fact, but more than willing to be corrected
 

cemba99 said:
Doesn’t the highest ranked Big Ten team (after OSU going to CFP) by definition go the the Rose? I am not aware of any way around that fact, but more than willing to be corrected
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I would really, really like to know what the agreement between the Big Ten and the Rose Bowl stipulates, around this, too.

I've heard it both ways.
 

cemba99 said:
Doesn’t the highest ranked Big Ten team (after OSU going to CFP) by definition go the the Rose? I am not aware of any way around that fact, but more than willing to be corrected
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There is nothing codified about who goes if the Big Ten champ is in the CFP, however since the CFP has been a thing it has always gone to the 2nd highest rated Big Ten team in the CFP.
 



www.chicagotribune.com

Big Ten, Pac-12, ESPN extend Rose Bowl deal

The Big Ten, Pac-12 and ESPN have announced a 12-year extension with the Rose Bowl through 2026. As reported Tuesday in the Tribune, the deal locks in the Rose Bowl for the coveted time slot (4 p.m…
www.chicagotribune.com www.chicagotribune.com

This says:
"
In other years, it will host the champions from the Big Ten and Pac-12 -- unless one or both makes the playoffs. In that case, the second-best team from the league will play for the Roses.
"

The 2015 and 2016 seasons had the Rose as a non-semi game, with the Big Ten champion in the CFP.
2015 - Michigan St won the BT champ game, and went to the CFP. Iowa lost the game, and was ranked #5 and went to the Rose.
2016 - Penn St won the BT champ game, but did *NOT* go to the CFP. It was ranked #5 and went to the Rose. Ohio St was ranked #3 and went to the CFP.
 

2019_Bowl_Determination_Procedures (PDF) - Big Ten Conference

bigten.org bigten.org

THE ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL (Pasadena, Calif.)
1. When not hosting a CFP national semifinal, the Big Ten Champion will play in the Rose Bowl Game, unless it is among the top four teams.
2. If Big Ten Champion is selected to play in a national semifinal, then the Rose Bowl will select a Big Ten replacement team for the 2020 Rose
Bowl.
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The way I understand it, the Rose Bowl can select any bowl-eligible team. Since the CFP started they've always chosen the highest ranked if the winner goes to the CFP but that's not by rule. If it's close I bet they will do what's best for attendance/TV ratings which very well could be us. If one team is significantly above the rest they will likely get it.
 

Michigan could be a problem too. They're rolling and have the Buckeyes at home. In the scenario where they pull the upset, we beat Bucky and lose to OSU, Michigan would have losses to two teams we beat (WI and PSU) but we'd likewise have losses to two teams they beat (IA and OSU). They'd have the best win (OSU) and a best win among non-common opponents (Notre Dame).
 

Parcival said:
Screw that there aren't any guarantees we'll be contenders for the Rose Bowl next year. Give me the Rose Bowl this year while we got a shot.
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I know, I know. I'll happily take a Rose Bowl game, on TV, poolside. Let's just win. For this week, Buck the Fadgers.
 

If we don't go Rose, I would like Orange to be honest, because the match up might be better suited for Minnesota vs. the ACC instead of an SEC.

I know it's basically Rose or Outback at this point, with no in-between, but SEC Auburn (projections love Minnesota vs. Auburn for some reason) scares the heck out of me. Might be like making the Citrus a few years back, only to get curb stomped by Missouri. Versus any SEC team, I don't like our chances.
 


BeenHazy said:
Michigan could be a problem too. They're rolling and have the Buckeyes at home. In the scenario where they pull the upset, we beat Bucky and lose to OSU, Michigan would have losses to two teams we beat (WI and PSU) but we'd likewise have losses to two teams they beat (IA and OSU). They'd have the best win (OSU) and a best win among non-common opponents (Notre Dame).
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Best that OSU beats Michigan for sure. They also have not been in a while which would make them more tempting.
 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">And a Minnesota that won its division. Makes a difference. As vast as Michigan&#39;s following is, Minnesota fans would invade Pasadena.</p>&mdash; Dennis Dodd (@dennisdoddcbs) <a href="">November 25, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

amk8930 said:
If we don't go Rose, I would like Orange to be honest, because the match up might be better suited for Minnesota vs. the ACC instead of an SEC.

I know it's basically Rose or Outback at this point, with no in-between, but SEC Auburn (projections love Minnesota vs. Auburn for some reason) scares the heck out of me. Might be like making the Citrus a few years back, only to get curb stomped by Missouri. Versus any SEC team, I don't like our chances.
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The SEC .500 bowl record recently just too much to overcome? And you must have watched a different Citrus Bowl than I did. In the one you watched the gophers got "curb stomped" by Missouri. In the one I watched the Gophers were down 2 going into the fourth quarter before giving up two scores late to lose 17-33 in a game where total yards, first downs, and time of possession were fairly even.

We might just have different definitions of "curb stomps" but to me it is somewhere far more than a two possession game.

It always bugs me when SEC fans over inflate their conference. It really bugs me when our "fans" do it for them.
 

Just play who's in front of you, beat who's in front of you, and let the chips fall into whatever bowl they do. Then, you beat who's in front of you.
 

Every bowl game committee would give their left you know what to have PJ and the Gophers because he's instant press and would bring much needed attention to differentiate their offering. I am very confident that the Rose Bowl folks are rooting like heck for us this week - not only because of the pub PJ would bring them but also because we haven't been there for almost 50 years. Go Gophers!! Beat Wisconsin!!
 
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