Gopher -1

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I'm not a betting man, but I would definitely take that. Home-field is supposed to give you 3 points, so they're saying on a neutral field they would be the favorites. I'm not buying that.
 


Been living here too long, listening to too many line makers on the radio. I was guessing a pick 'em yesterday. Not bad!

I wouldn't touch this one. Still too many unknowns about the home team. First thing I would check is how many sacks/knock downs on Carder that WMU has given up this year. If their first two opponents have gotten pressure on him, the Rodents could be in good shape.

Huge game!! A win would be another nice step forward.
 

WMU gave up 2 sacks against Illinois, and one against Eastern Illinois. They had no sacks against Illinois, and four against Eastern Illinois.
 


Again the number is designed to bring maxium money to the window. If huge dough comes in on Minnesota at -1, the line will move.
 

husker70 said:
Again the number is designed to bring maxium money to the window. If huge dough comes in on Minnesota at -1, the line will move.
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Going to go out on a limb and say this game isn't going to bring in huge money on either side....:cool:
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
Been living here too long, listening to too many line makers on the radio. I was guessing a pick 'em yesterday. Not bad!

I wouldn't touch this one. Still too many unknowns about the home team. First thing I would check is how many sacks/knock downs on Carder that WMU has given up this year. If their first two opponents have gotten pressure on him, the Rodents could be in good shape.

Huge game!! A win would be another nice step forward.
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Ogee: Looks like it is now a pick-'em http://sportsdirect.usatoday.com/odds/usatoday/odds.aspx
 




Well, we will know more come this weekend when I start the Thread..."Saturday Pick Per Day" for the games using scoresandodds.com.

Until then, no picks are official until that thread starts.

In the meantime, don't forget to "Predict the Score-Western Michigan". Lots of time and numbers are available on that thread. Get in on the fun.

Special congrats go to Gopher in Qatar for picking the exact score of the Gopher/New Hampshire game.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Going to go out on a limb and say this game isn't going to bring in huge money on either side....:cool:
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You'd be surprised the games that bring the most money in.

It isn't always the big teams, it can be a particularily ripe game for betting reasons.
 

Seems like Vegas doesn't think much of the Gophers. WMU was a 9 1/2 point underdog at Illinois two weeks ago and lost that game 24-7.
 

Looks like the line has pushed to -2.5/-3 as of this morning
 



Right on, 07. scoresandodds.com so far has Minnesota -3. We will see how the line moves by Saturday morning when I post the Saturday Pick Per Day.
 

It was never -1 regardless of what Doogie/that site says (Certainly not -1 that any of us could ever have bet into). -2.5/-3 is the real opener. Vegas doesn't open the lines though, offshore sportsbooks open the lines. Vegas is afraid to take a real bet so they wait for offshores to iron out any fluctuation before they put the vanilla lines up. Also, the idea of the line being intended to evenly split the betting is an outdated notion. That might work if you're a bartender & you just want to make $10 off of two guys each betting $110/100 on opposite sides of the game but offshores have expenses, they want decisions, but they want to be on the "right side" of the games so they let the pros bet into the lines first (which is why it's conceivable the line opened at -1 for a small, invite-only group of pros where the book may have taken ONE bet, with reduced limits at -1) & indicate to them which side is the "right side" to be on. Then they open the lines to the public & let nature take it's course.

Gopher07 said:
Looks like the line has pushed to -2.5/-3 as of this morning
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I'd load up on Utah State +14 at Wisconsin.
 


Costa Rican Gopher said:
It was never -1 regardless of what Doogie/that site says (Certainly not -1 that any of us could ever have bet into). -2.5/-3 is the real opener. Vegas doesn't open the lines though, offshore sportsbooks open the lines. Vegas is afraid to take a real bet so they wait for offshores to iron out any fluctuation before they put the vanilla lines up. Also, the idea of the line being intended to evenly split the betting is an outdated notion. That might work if you're a bartender & you just want to make $10 off of two guys each betting $110/100 on opposite sides of the game but offshores have expenses, they want decisions, but they want to be on the "right side" of the games so they let the pros bet into the lines first (which is why it's conceivable the line opened at -1 for a small, invite-only group of pros where the book may have taken ONE bet, with reduced limits at -1) & indicate to them which side is the "right side" to be on. Then they open the lines to the public & let nature take it's course.
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This guy GETS IT!
 


That means if it were a neutral field the Gophers would be even, to slight dogs. Not much respect for our rodents. It looks to be a very tough game.
 

This computer simulation - which had us as 21-point favorites over UNH, and 4-point favorites over UNLV - has us as 4-point dogs against WMU. This is a huge, huge game to change perceptions. It cannot be overstated.
 

Gopher07 said:
This computer simulation - which had us as 21-point favorites over UNH, and 4-point favorites over UNLV - has us as 4-point dogs against WMU. This is a huge, huge game to change perceptions. It cannot be overstated.
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Don't worry it will be very understated to be sure.
 

Agree 100% with all that's been posted. This is a huge game. I don't follow the betting lines much anymore, but I have an impression that if it's "under 57" the chances of us winning are greater than if it's "over 57."
 

50PoundHead said:
Agree 100% with all that's been posted. This is a huge game. I don't follow the betting lines much anymore, but I have an impression that if it's "under 57" the chances of us winning are greater than if it's "over 57."
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I take the UNDER all day on this one. I think the Defense will show up and do a good job of at least somewhat containing Carder, but I'm not sure how much the Rodents will be able to score.

Both teams in the low-mid 20's, or the winner in the 20's and the loser in the high teens. Just a guess though. I think I'd be shocked if either team cracked 30, which essentially needs to happen for the O/U to get above 57.
 

Ogee Oglethorpe said:
I take the UNDER all day on this one. I think the Defense will show up and do a good job of at least somewhat containing Carder, but I'm not sure how much the Rodents will be able to score.

Both teams in the low-mid 20's, or the winner in the 20's and the loser in the high teens. Just a guess though. I think I'd be shocked if either team cracked 30, which essentially needs to happen for the O/U to get above 57.
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So you're saying that once again I'll be a loser in the Pick the Score contest?:)

Gophers 39-36
 

Gopher07 said:
This computer simulation - which had us as 21-point favorites over UNH, and 4-point favorites over UNLV - has us as 4-point dogs against WMU. This is a huge, huge game to change perceptions. It cannot be overstated.
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This is the conundrum of OOC scheduling. I agree with your thoughts as a hardcore CFB fan. That said, if we beat a solid WMU team no perceptions will change at all except amongst Gopher fans. Local bandwagons will say; "Western Michigan, don't they play Crookston normally?". The media will bill a win as an "expected win over a non-BCS team". If we lose, look out. At least if we're playing a low level BCS team John Q. Public will say- "well they lost to Kansas, that is a big school" and it has more bandwagon panache than losing to WMU. Of course, most of us know that WMU and KU would be a wash, but to the general public we're trying to bring in, not so much.
 

vinko bogataj said:
This is the conundrum of OOC scheduling. I agree with your thoughts as a hardcore CFB fan. That said, if we beat a solid WMU team no perceptions will change at all except amongst Gopher fans. Local bandwagons will say; "Western Michigan, don't they play Crookston normally?". The media will bill a win as an "expected win over a non-BCS team". If we lose, look out. At least if we're playing a low level BCS team John Q. Public will say- "well they lost to Kansas, that is a big school" and it has more bandwagon panache than losing to WMU. Of course, most of us know that WMU and KU would be a wash, but to the general public we're trying to bring in, not so much.
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This point (the vast difference in football knowledge between casual and hardcore followers) was driven home to me yesterday. I take the shuttle from my office to my parking spot, and it usually takes about 8-10 min. The driver was a young guy, probably late 20s, and he started talking about the Gophers game this past weekend. I could tell from conversation that he somewhat follows football, and he knew who the Gophers played this weekend, knew that we won, etc. The strange part of the conversation entered when he had no idea that the U is the only D-1 football/basketball school in the state (he thought Duluth and Mankato were both D-1), and he thought that the non-conference games were basically akin to NFL preseason games (i.e., don't count in the records, aren't "real" games, etc.). It just illustrated how the casual follower gets the 30,000-ft. picture and understands virtually none of the details.
 

vinko bogataj said:
This is the conundrum of OOC scheduling. I agree with your thoughts as a hardcore CFB fan. That said, if we beat a solid WMU team no perceptions will change at all except amongst Gopher fans. Local bandwagons will say; "Western Michigan, don't they play Crookston normally?". The media will bill a win as an "expected win over a non-BCS team". If we lose, look out. At least if we're playing a low level BCS team John Q. Public will say- "well they lost to Kansas, that is a big school" and it has more bandwagon panache than losing to WMU. Of course, most of us know that WMU and KU would be a wash, but to the general public we're trying to bring in, not so much.
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I wouldn't really classify WMU as a solid team. They got absolutely worked over by Illinois 2 weeks ago and then beat up on a terrible FCS team last week.

WMU is an OK team but a team that the Gophers should handle at home given the supposed improvement folks are clammoring about.
 

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