Golden Gophers Open @ -14.5 vs Fighting Illini

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caliGopher said:
So, kinda like the 414 we gave up to Purdue's offense led by their back-up QB without their two best receivers? or the 646 we gave up to the Illini last year? In all fairness, after giving up 207 yards in the 1st Quarter last year, i can see why we feel that we'll simply blow them out of the building by showing up.

We should beat this team, but then again we should have spanked them last year. PJ Fleck coached teams have not shown they can beat teams with speed on the edge, and this is the first of many teams we play with just that in the Big 10. This is a bigger test than many seem to think it is, in my opinion. Until we show we can deal with inferior teams with speed, I'll be less optimistic than most, I guess.
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Also, we’re averaging 331 yards allowed right now compared to Illinois 407 average. Michigan is allowing 295 average and averaging 392 themselves. We’re averaging 389 a game offensively. So we’re very comparable to Michigan production-wise and defensive allowance-wise. Our defense is ranked 40th statistically right now, 37th in rushing defense and 53rd in passing. Offense is bad in rushing stats so far, but 40th in passing. Still plenty of time to see these things improve.


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Gophers take this opportunity, especially with Nebraska coming the following week, to work on pounding the run game, build the confidence of the OL.

Gophers win 30-20 with Illinois scoring a later 4th quarter TD for the backdoor cover.
 

If we keep cleaning up one area every game, we're eventually going to run out of problems. I'm taking the home team (but I might wait until Friday to see if the line comes down).
 

LesBolstad said:
We will load the box, shut down the run and get up by 2 TD early. Illini will fold like a cheap hooker who got hit in the stomach by a fat guy with sores on his face. Gophers 34-17.
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You seem quite familiar with that scenario- disturbing but not surprising.


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We win. Embarrassingly by 7 or less keeping us out of the top 25.
 

Bet on the Illini as a great hedge bet.


I also thought MD would upset PSU this week.




(I'm not a betting man)
 

LesBolstad said:
We will load the box, shut down the run and get up by 2 TD early. Illini will fold like a cheap hooker who got hit in the stomach by a fat guy with sores on his face. Gophers 34-17.
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That may be the most disgusting analogy I have ever read.
 

mjfelton15 said:
I think I said this game against Illinois should resemble the Purdue game minus the bad 4th quarter. Which is where most of those 414 yards came from, I believe. Haven’t seen a Qtr by Qtr yardage breakdown, but I don’t think the bigger chunks of that 414 came when we were up 28-10 or 38-17. Personally I think we’d have done better against Purdue’s starting QB with Rondale out there. They weren’t doing much while they were in. We were up 14-3 with them on the field. And I don’t care about how we played Illinois last year. That season is dead and gone. This is the 2019 season. If you want to live in the past that’s fine. I’d like to see this as a brand new year with entirely new outcomes on the table. It’s college football. Continuity for these matchups season to season is minuscule. Your pessimism is a cancer that many Gopher fans plague these boards with. Wondering when people like you will be happy. Bet you bitched about Morgan not completing all 22 passes Saturday.


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75 yard TD drive to make it 28-17, 99 yard drive to make it 38-24.
 



We are more likely a touchdown favorite, plus -3 for a home game. Gophers by 10.
 


LesBolstad said:
We will load the box, shut down the run and get up by 2 TD early. Illini will fold like a cheap hooker who got hit in the stomach by a fat guy with sores on his face. Gophers 34-17.
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Well said.
 




PMWinSTP said:
75 yard TD drive to make it 28-17, 99 yard drive to make it 38-24.
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So 175 roughly in one quarter. Meaning only 229 the rest of the game right? So what i said kinda stands up. If we play the same game against Illinois that we had for the first three quarters, and don’t have a bad 4th like we did in Purdue, theoretically we should be smooth sailing.


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Whats crazy to me is this opening spread is larger than OSU's opening line over Nebraska which I think was 13.5 or 14. I thought OSU would win that game 50-10 just like how they beat IU. Couldn't figure out for the life of me why that spread opened that low.
 

die hard gopher said:
Whats crazy to me is this opening spread is larger than OSU's opening line over Nebraska which I think was 13.5 or 14. I thought OSU would win that game 50-10 just like how they beat IU. Couldn't figure out for the life of me why that spread opened that low.
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I didn't get that one either. Neb has been getting epic benefit of the doubt a few times this year. I sort of wish I was a betting man...
 

I'm not a betting man, but that spread seems ridiculous. Last year's beat down is still burned in my memory. The Illini with their big OLine and RB speed put up 430 yards rushing and absolutely demolished the Gophs defensive front 7. This year's version of the Gophs defensive front 7 seems suspect too and they haven't played a true power running team yet. If the Gophs win the turnover battle and keep Tanner upright, I think they win - but 14 points? I hope I'm wrong.
 


Near-Consensus on GopherHole that:

— Gophers won't cover

— Nebraska won't beat Northwestern, or at least will fail to cover

— Iowa will beat Michigan, or at least cover

Apparently I'm a contrarian on the Iowa and Nebraska games. I don't know about against the spread, but I think Nebraska and Michigan win straight up. If I was actually betting, I take the chalk in both games.
 

RememberMurray said:
Near-Consensus on GopherHole that:

— Gophers won't cover

— Nebraska won't beat Northwestern, or at least will fail to cover

— Iowa will beat Michigan, or at least cover

Apparently I'm a contrarian on the Iowa and Nebraska games. I don't know about against the spread, but I think Nebraska and Michigan win straight up. If I was actually betting, I take the chalk in both games.
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I don't know if it's a consensus that we won't cover, just that the spread is too high.

I think many on here believe we can cover but we realize that we are biased and more optimistic than Vegas and the general public. At least thats how I feel. So while I want to predict we win by15-20 points, I do realize that that is more of an optimistic scenario as opposed to the most likely scenario.

I agree on Michigan, I'm thinking they beat Iowa at home.

I'd like to see Northwestern beat Nebraska to take more air out of the huskers balloon for when we play them but it's at Nebraska and Northwestern may be on their third string QB since Hunter Johnson went down.
 

Brandon Peters is least mobile QB we have seen. Should get some sacks (strip sacks?) this week.

Winfield can come up and help in run support this year.
Howden is making much better reads.
Durr and Thomas are both good in run support.
Kamal Martin seems to be coming on well.
Will need Barber's best game.
Wonder if SoriMarin will get more run at linebacker. Would be nice for an Illinois native to have a big impact (DewTreadway also).
They have used Justus Harris in some run packages also.
StJuste starting to show up more. Has great speed, seems physical. Maybe he has a role.
 

swingman said:
Brandon Peters is least mobile QB we have seen. Should get some sacks (strip sacks?) this week.

Winfield can come up and help in run support this year.
Howden is making much better reads.
Durr and Thomas are both good in run support.
Kamal Martin seems to be coming on well.
Will need Barber's best game.
Wonder if SoriMarin will get more run at linebacker. Would be nice for an Illinois native to have a big impact (DewTreadway also).
They have used Justus Harris in some run packages also.
StJuste starting to show up more. Has great speed, seems physical. Maybe he has a role.
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Re: the bolded... it's my impression as a TV viewer that I'm hearing Howden's name called a lot — and in a good way.
 

RememberMurray said:
Near-Consensus on GopherHole that:

— Gophers won't cover

— Nebraska won't beat Northwestern, or at least will fail to cover

— Iowa will beat Michigan, or at least cover

Apparently I'm a contrarian on the Iowa and Nebraska games. I don't know about against the spread, but I think Nebraska and Michigan win straight up. If I was actually betting, I take the chalk in both games.
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I'm not sure that you're being contrarian if you "don't know about against the spread".
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
I'm not sure that you're being contrarian if you "don't know about against the spread".
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I guess neither one of us is sure, then.

But then again, I could be wrong... I'm not really certain.:cool:

Seriously, this will be a fun Saturday.
 

mjfelton15 said:
So 175 roughly in one quarter. Meaning only 229 the rest of the game right? So what i said kinda stands up. If we play the same game against Illinois that we had for the first three quarters, and don’t have a bad 4th like we did in Purdue, theoretically we should be smooth sailing.


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Not really sure it's clear what you mean. You called out two specific scores and I answered that with the two longest scoring drives that happened when it was those two scores. Purdue had 249 yards of offense in the second half. So big chunks of yards came from 28-10 forward. The part of your post I put in bold seems to say the opposite.
 

Panthadad2 said:
I'm not a betting man, but that spread seems ridiculous. Last year's beat down is still burned in my memory. The Illini with their big OLine and RB speed put up 430 yards rushing and absolutely demolished the Gophs defensive front 7. This year's version of the Gophs defensive front 7 seems suspect too and they haven't played a true power running team yet. If the Gophs win the turnover battle and keep Tanner upright, I think they win - but 14 points? I hope I'm wrong.
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Illinois is 3-7 in their last ten, Gophs 8-2. They've beaten an 0-5 Akron and 1-3 UConn this year. Their two B1G road wins in the last 3+ years were at Rutgers.

I don't think the spread is ridiculous by any means.
 

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