Going undefeated at a program like Minnesota

[Gophers_4life]

Guys,

we need a little bit of a reality check. Everything has been said already, and it's all good points about the game and what happened. Not here to refute any of them. You're welcome to those points and a lot of them are right on the money. Fine.

But ...

the only way a program like Minnesota (or Kansas, Wake Forest, NC State, etc.) is going to go undefeated in 12 games is if the starters stay healthy all year.


We are not a program that can lose a guy like Mo and just plug in a new Mo from the bench. They can do that at Ohio State, Alabama, and maybe a handful of others.

We can't do that.


How likely was it going to be that all of our starters stayed healthy all year?

Not very reasonable to expect that.


I'm not guaranteeing that having Mo guarantees we would've won. But I think it is pretty likely we would've done much better. A lot of what we do on offense depends on being able to run the ball well.

 

[DCinOK]

Yeah, but the thing is...though going undefeated seems a bit absurd for The U...your few losses have to be on the road against very good teams if you're going to "take the next step." Your handful of losses CANNOT be at home...on a beautiful day...to a team with a far lesser record...when you just got ranked...when community support has just begun to build...when national attention has just come your way.

 

[Gophers_4life]

You can't dictate that your starters will be hurt only for the really, really hard games.

Mo was crushing it, then some rando play at MSU a dude lands weird on his ankle. That's football.


If yesterday was for a trip to the Rose Bowl, I think he plays through the pain. Fleck & Co. made a very purposeful decision to try to win without him.

(And we still could've won the damn game, if we didn't shoot all of our toes on both feet off)

 

[BilldGopher]

In retrospect it looks like MSU was last year's Colorado.

Difference of course is that the Buffs were already known to be down...but not that down. We had lost Mo but seemed to be managing.

MSU was still living off last year's sugar high when we played them...all reputation and not able to back it up. It appeared that losing CrAB was going to be mitigated by our complimentary style of play.

Now a year later and the week after "a complete, dominating win," we get our hat handed to us again. Unfortunate circumstance due to injuries that apparently could not be overcome.

So back to OP's original point, yes, we are very challenged to overcome injuries to our top playmakers. I think most of us knew it was possibly going to be rough on offense when it became apparent Mo was out. As for injuries on the other side, Purdue benefitted greatly from O'Connor coming back from injury.

I think the football gods are toying with us again...darn...

 

[cjbfbp]

Guys,

we need a little bit of a reality check. Everything has been said already, and it's all good points about the game and what happened. Not here to refute any of them. You're welcome to those points and a lot of them are right on the money. Fine.

But ...

the only way a program like Minnesota (or Kansas, Wake Forest, NC State, etc.) is going to go undefeated in 12 games is if the starters stay healthy all year.


We are not a program that can lose a guy like Mo and just plug in a new Mo from the bench. They can do that at Ohio State, Alabama, and maybe a handful of others.

We can't do that.


How likely was it going to be that all of our starters stayed healthy all year?

Not very reasonable to expect that.


I'm not guaranteeing that having Mo guarantees we would've won. But I think it is pretty likely we would've done much better. A lot of what we do on offense depends on being able to run the ball well.

Absolutely. Also, there are only, on average, two or possibly three teams (out of 130+) who have undefeated regular seasons each year. After the 4th game, the Gophers were ranked #7 on ESPN's S&P rankings but their S&P probability of going 12-0 for the regular season was only a little over 9%. People shouldn't be forecasting an undefeated regular season with odds like that. Most of the teams that go undefeated in the regular season are either going to be the perennially highest ranked teams in FBS (like you mentioned) or teams who are not among that group but are members of conferences that they dominated during the year (like Cincinnati last year, Fleck's last Western Michigan team, or Central Florida some years back).

 

[Gophers_4life]

Yep.

(Central Florida was coached by .......... take one guess ..... )

 

[Some guy]

It was unlikely we were going unbeaten.
But it would be really nice to be unbeaten right now.
So I think people should feel free to complain.

Need to get the OL figured out.
Need the wide receivers to play better.
Need to quit running outside zone when our line simply weren’t touching run through ILBs

 

[Gophers_4life]

It was unlikely we were going unbeaten.
But it would be really nice to be unbeaten right now.
So I think people should feel free to complain.

Need to get the OL figured out.
Need the wide receivers to play better.
Need to quit running outside zone when our line simply weren’t touching run through ILBs

See I think a lot of that stuff gets cleaned up if we have a more potent running game going.

It's really huge if the D knows you can't run the ball.

Mo makes everything look and work better.

 

[Some guy]

See I think a lot of that stuff gets cleaned up if we have a more potent running game going.

It's really huge if the D knows you can't run the ball.

Mo makes everything look and work better.

When we couldn’t run outside zone Kirk should’ve stopped calling it.
I think less potts more Williams would’ve been better yesterday.

The sky is not falling. But my 15-0 prediction is shot now

 

[Dakota2]

In retrospect it looks like MSU was last year's Colorado.

Difference of course is that the Buffs were already known to be down...but not that down. We had lost Mo but seemed to be managing.

MSU was still living off last year's sugar high when we played them...all reputation and not able to back it up. It appeared that losing CrAB was going to be mitigated by our complimentary style of play.

Now a year later and the week after "a complete, dominating win," we get our hat handed to us again. Unfortunate circumstance due to injuries that apparently could not be overcome.

So back to OP's original point, yes, we are very challenged to overcome injuries to our top playmakers. I think most of us knew it was possibly going to be rough on offense when it became apparent Mo was out. As for injuries on the other side, Purdue benefitted greatly from O'Connor coming back from injury.

I think the football gods are toying with us again...darn...

Mo doesn't make much difference yesterday. Maybe 70 yards instead of 47. The holes weren't there. The Oline got handled.

Last year when Mo went down Potts went over 100 yards five straight weeks. When he went down Williams (briefly), Ky and Bucky were 100 yard plus rushers. It all happens, good or bad up front.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

Yes, going undefeated at a place like MN is very difficult.

and that's why a team like MN has to take advantage of every opportunity. It's one thing to lose to an Ohio State or a Michigan.

But losing to Purdue is a different story.

now that being undefeated is no longer possible, the goal has to be to win as many games as possible. and there is no more margin for error.

you can say "it's only 1 loss."

But if the Gophers play like that against Illinois or Penn State, the losses could mount up in a hurry.

 

[Some guy]

Mo doesn't make much difference yesterday. Maybe 70 yards instead of 47. The holes weren't there. The Oline got handled.

Last year when Mo went down Potts went over 100 yards five straight weeks. When he went down Williams (briefly), Ky and Bucky were 100 yard plus rushers. It all happens, good or bad up front.

Mo going down makes a huge difference as every third and one the conversion rate goes up significantly even if the O line doesn’t block people: convert a couple 3rd and 1-2 plays and that’s a different game.

Likewise, the passing game is harder without Mo because the opposing coaches know that they have a chance to tackle potts one on one whereas not many guys ever get Mo down 1 on 1:

It was a significant loss and it was probably amplified if they didn’t find out about it until just before kickoff

 

[PMWinSTP]

See I think a lot of that stuff gets cleaned up if we have a more potent running game going.

It's really huge if the D knows you can't run the ball.

Mo makes everything look and work better.

Didn't have Mo last year and the run game was fine. Not having him is not why Gophs lost. Two inexplicable loses last year stopped that team from matching or arguably topping the 2019 team.

 

[Dakota2]

Mo going down makes a huge difference as every third and one the conversion rate goes up significantly even if the O line doesn’t block people: convert a couple 3rd and 1-2 plays and that’s a different game.

Likewise, the passing game is harder without Mo because the opposing coaches know that they have a chance to tackle potts one on one whereas not many guys ever get Mo down 1 on 1:

It was a significant loss and it was probably amplified if they didn’t find out about it until just before kickoff

Mo, like Potts and every other back, does not have success when defensive penetration allows first hit at or behind the line. Our Oline got beat much of the day.

 

[Live in the now]

almost impossible unless your O$U and even tough for them, Bucky,Michigan, Iowa Penn state have all had some one loss seasons in the last 25 years but it’s pretty rare for anyone in the big 10 to be undefeated.

 

[Live in the now]

I think Michigan did it in 97 when they were the champs but not since then. It’s almost impossible and harder now with the championship game.

 

[Some Day...Maybe]

Guys,

we need a little bit of a reality check. Everything has been said already, and it's all good points about the game and what happened. Not here to refute any of them. You're welcome to those points and a lot of them are right on the money. Fine.

But ...

the only way a program like Minnesota (or Kansas, Wake Forest, NC State, etc.) is going to go undefeated in 12 games is if the starters stay healthy all year.


We are not a program that can lose a guy like Mo and just plug in a new Mo from the bench. They can do that at Ohio State, Alabama, and maybe a handful of others.

We can't do that.


How likely was it going to be that all of our starters stayed healthy all year?

Not very reasonable to expect that.


I'm not guaranteeing that having Mo guarantees we would've won. But I think it is pretty likely we would've done much better. A lot of what we do on offense depends on being able to run the ball well.

You’re talking going undefeated over 12 games, this team hasn’t gone undefeated in 5 games. This team just lost at home with a nice crowd and a bye week coming up to a team that gave up 26 points to Florida Atlantic last week. This team sucked hind you know what 90% of the game yesterday on offense. Mo going out shouldn’t cripple our offense. Now if the Gophers win 6 of the next 7 I’d be impressed. I certainly wouldn’t bet on it though.

 

[Gophers_4life]

Mo doesn't make much difference yesterday. Maybe 70 yards instead of 47. The holes weren't there. The Oline got handled.

Last year when Mo went down Potts went over 100 yards five straight weeks. When he went down Williams (briefly), Ky and Bucky were 100 yard plus rushers. It all happens, good or bad up front.

Didn't have Mo last year and the run game was fine. Not having him is not why Gophs lost. Two inexplicable loses last year stopped that team from matching or arguably topping the 2019 team.

Mo, like Potts and every other back, does not have success when defensive penetration allows first hit at or behind the line. Our Oline got beat much of the day.

OK. Respect your guys' opinions.

I don't think our OL dropped that much talent from 2021 or 2019. I think we still have pretty good talent up front this year.

I do think that OL and RB can pick each other up, just like a good QB can do for WR's and vice versa.


More than anything, I think Purdue just game-planned for us really well. I don't know schematically exactly what it was, but they saw something and/or did something that we could not handle.

Like on those wide stretch zone run plays that kept getting blown up. Say, to make something up out of thin air, they knew when those were coming and aligned their 3tech really wide and had him shoot upfield as fast as possible. That makes it almost impossible for our Guards to reach block that guy. Doesn't matter if you're all-world.

The way you handle something like that is to have the tackle and TE crack back (against the flow of the play) and have the guard pull around. But I don't know if we have those types of plays (guard pulling) in our playbook, or if we only run zone here.

 

[PMWinSTP]

I honestly think if they would have came out with the offensive gameplan they started off with against Sparty, they would have caught Purdue off guard.

 

[RememberMurray]

As others have pointed out, undefeated seasons are really, really rare at any B1G school.

Here is a list of the last time each B1G school went undefeated:

Ohio State — 2012. 10 years ago.

Michigan — 1997. Quarter century ago

Iowa — 1922. One hundred years ago.

Wisconsin — 1912. One hundred ten years ago. They were 7-0.

Michigan State — 1966. 56 years ago. They were 9-0-1.

Nebraska — 1997. Quarter century ago (they weren't in the B1G then, though).

Purdue — 1943. 79 years ago.

Indiana — Never.

Northwestern — Never.

Illinois — 1927. 95 years ago. 7-0-1.

Penn State — 1994. 28 years ago.

Minnesota — 1941. 81 years ago. 8-0.

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

It'll happen next season! I can't find a loss anywhere!!!

 

[CentralGopher]

You’re talking going undefeated over 12 games, this team hasn’t gone undefeated in 5 games. This team just lost at home with a nice crowd and a bye week coming up to a team that gave up 26 points to Florida Atlantic last week. This team sucked hind you know what 90% of the game yesterday on offense. Mo going out shouldn’t cripple our offense. Now if the Gophers win 6 of the next 7 I’d be impressed. I certainly wouldn’t bet on it though.

They mailed it in against Florida Atlantic looking ahead a game.

 

[Ope3]

While going Undefeated all season is a tough ask, what I thought was reasonable was to go Unbeaten at the Bank in 2022.

I don't recall the last time that happened. 2014 & 2019 were close, made it to Senior Day both years before falling to Ohio St and Wisconsin respectively.

 

[Panthadad2]

As others have pointed out, undefeated seasons are really, really rare at any B1G school.

Here is a list of the last time each B1G school went undefeated:

Ohio State — 2012. 10 years ago.

Michigan — 1997. Quarter century ago

Iowa — 1922. One hundred years ago.

Wisconsin — 1912. One hundred ten years ago. They were 7-0.

Michigan State — 1966. 56 years ago. They were 9-0-1.

Nebraska — 1997. Quarter century ago (they weren't in the B1G then, though).

Purdue — 1943. 79 years ago.

Indiana — Never.

Northwestern — Never.

Illinois — 1927. 95 years ago. 7-0-1.

Penn State — 1994. 28 years ago.

Minnesota — 1941. 81 years ago. 8-0.

Great list. I'll quibble and go with the OP talking about going 12-0 which is the regular season. In that case, it is much more common with several BG10 teams going unbeaten in the regular season in the past decade:

2020 OSU* (7-0 regular season)
2019 OSU 12-0
2017 WI 12-0
2015 IA 12-0
2013 OSU 12-0
2012 OSU 12-0

 

[RememberMurray]

Great list. I'll quibble and go with the OP talking about going 12-0 which is the regular season. In that case, it is much more common with several BG10 teams going unbeaten in the regular season in the past decade:

2020 OSU* (7-0 regular season)
2019 OSU 12-0
2017 WI 12-0
2015 IA 12-0
2013 OSU 12-0
2012 OSU 12-0

A valid point, but... Wisconsin and Iowa once each in a decade. Nobody else, other than Ohio State — and the Buckeyes are a clear B1G outlier in many ways.

If you're going to be disappointed as a fan if your B1G team doesn't go 12-0, then you're going to be disappointed most of the time.... unless you happen to cheer for Ohio State. And even the Buckeyes only managed to go 12-0 three out of 9 seasons. (A 7-0 COVID year doesn't qualify as a 12-0 regular season).

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

A valid point, but... Wisconsin and Iowa once each in a decade. Nobody else, other than Ohio State — and the Buckeyes are a clear B1G outlier in many ways.

If you're going to be disappointed as a fan if your B1G team doesn't go 12-0, then you're going to be disappointed most of the time.... unless you happen to cheer for Ohio State. And even the Buckeyes only went 12-0 three out of 9 seasons. (A 7-0 COVID year doesn't qualify as a 12-0 regular season).

Going undefeated in an entire regular season is a pretty unrealistic expectation. Going undefeated in home games where you are favored by more than a touchdown is a little more doable.

 

[RememberMurray]

Going undefeated in an entire regular season is a pretty unrealistic expectation. Going undefeated in home games where you are favored by more than a touchdown is a little more doable.

You have every right to be disappointed in losing to Purdue — I was, too.

Despite the loss of 1 game, I have the right to be hopeful and optimistic about the remaining 2022 season. I have the right to choose to look forward and not dwell too long on past disappointments.

We each enjoy being a fan of this team, albeit in very different ways.

For those who like to wallow in Minnesota Misery, there are several sports media outlets in town that make their bones on just that sort of thing.

 

[Some guy]

Going undefeated in an entire regular season is a pretty unrealistic expectation. Going undefeated in home games where you are favored by more than a touchdown is a little more doable.

Not sure why the point spread makes a difference.
If it was a pick ‘em you’d be less disappointed?

Because if AOC was a known player and Ibrahim was known inactive…it would’ve probably been gophers by 2-4

So feel better if the point spread is what makes it really stick

 

[Mr. 131]

Guys,

we need a little bit of a reality check. Everything has been said already, and it's all good points about the game and what happened. Not here to refute any of them. You're welcome to those points and a lot of them are right on the money. Fine.

But ...

the only way a program like Minnesota (or Kansas, Wake Forest, NC State, etc.) is going to go undefeated in 12 games is if the starters stay healthy all year.


We are not a program that can lose a guy like Mo and just plug in a new Mo from the bench. They can do that at Ohio State, Alabama, and maybe a handful of others.

We can't do that.


How likely was it going to be that all of our starters stayed healthy all year?

Not very reasonable to expect that.


I'm not guaranteeing that having Mo guarantees we would've won. But I think it is pretty likely we would've done much better. A lot of what we do on offense depends on being able to run the ball well.

I guess I'm pretty late to the game - I certainly didn't expect an undefeated season - but I did expect them to take care of business at homecoming, with a ranking, with a stripe-out, after dismantling what seemed to be at least an average big ten school in MSU.

 

[Gophers_4life]

I guess I'm pretty late to the game - I certainly didn't expect an undefeated season - but I did expect them to take care of business at homecoming, with a ranking, with a stripe-out, after dismantling what seemed to be at least an average big ten school in MSU.

My OP (original post) was in response to people having the attitude of "wow, we friggin suck, we're going to lose to Illinois and Penn State for sure now, season is toast".


Maybe Syracuse wins the ACC.
Maybe Purdue wins the West.
Maybe Purdue overlooked FAU.
Maybe MSU gets last place in the East.
Maybe Wisconsin gets last place in the West.


It's still too early.