NoelarBear
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ESPN Matchup Predictor: Gophers will make a bowl game. - GopherHole.com
Expectations for this Gophers team outside of Minnesota weren’t the highest entering the season. Vegas had their win total set at 4.5 wins heading into the 2024 season. The 4.5-win total was one of the lowest in the conference. Before the season opening game against North Carolina, I took a...
Expectations for this Gophers team outside of Minnesota weren’t the highest entering the season. Vegas had their win total set at 4.5 wins heading into the 2024 season. The 4.5-win total was one of the lowest in the conference. Before the season opening game against North Carolina, I took a look at what ESPN analytics and Match Predictor think about every Gophers game. They had the Gophers winning three games heading into Wisconsin. I thought I would go back and look at the outlook and winning percentages before the season and see how the final games of the season have changed since then.
Below are the Gophers winning percentage for every game before the season started, the result of those games, and how the percentage has changed since the beginning of the season.
North Carolina
Result: Loss, 19-17
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota: 45.3%
Projected Record: 0-1
Real Record: 0-1
Rhode Island
Result: Win, 48-0
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota: 96.7%
Projected Record: 1-1
Real Record: 1-1
Nevada
Result: Win, 27-0
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota: 84%
Projected Record: 2-1
Real Record: 2-1
Iowa
Result: Loss, 31-14
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota: 41%
Projected Record: 2-2
Real Record: 2-2
Michigan
Result: Loss, 27-24
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota: 15%
Projected Record: 2-3
Real Record: 2-3
USC
Result: Win, 24-27
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota: 33%
Projected Record: 2-4
Real Record: 3-3
UCLA
Result: Win, 21-17
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota: 32%
Projected Record: 2-5
Real Record: 4-3
Maryland
Result: Win, 48-23
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota: 50.9%
Projected Record: 3-5
Real Record: 5-3
Illinois
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota:
Before the season: 45.1%
Now: 54%
Projected Record: 6-3
ESPN now likes the Gophers chances against Illinois. While it’s nice to see ESPN change the percentage in Minnesota’s favor, the Minnesota sports fan in me remembers the Bret Bielema has never lost to the Gophers.
Rutgers
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota
Before the season: 30.5%
Now: 56%
Projected Record: 7-3
ESPN increased the Gophers chances of beating Rutgers by more than 20% since the beginning of the season. Which tells you that they were a lot higher on the Scarlet Knights than Minnesota. I remember being shocked when I originally saw that 30% for Minnesota; I think 56% is a lot more accurate.
Penn State
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota
Before the season: 16%
Now: 27%
Projected Record: 7-4
While ESPN still has the Nittany Lions heavily favored against Minnesota. The increase should tell you that ESPN thinks Minnesota is better than they thought. Can Minnesota pull off an upset like they did in 2019?
Wisconsin
Matchup Predictor win percentage for Minnesota
Before the season: 39% (This was my guess.)
Now: 38%
Projected Record: 7-5
ESPN has the Badgers keeping the Axe in Madison this year. Wisconsin has been playing well as of late. Their schedule before Minnesota is tough, though. They play at Iowa, Oregon, and Nebraska in Lincoln before they host Minnesota. Should be a fun one in Madison.
In summary, ESPN Matchup Predictor likes the Gophers chances in two of the remaining four games. Which would give them seven wins on the season, three more than what Vegas thought they would have. I personally like our chances a little more in Madison than what they think.
If I could rank the toughest to easiest games left on their schedule, it would be as follows:
Penn State, Illinois, Wisconsin, and then Rutgers.
Should be an exciting November for Minnesota fans.
